The Great Unwinding

[Arlo]

The poor are not the problem IMO...printing 40$ billion dollars and sending it to what will probably turn out to be a lost cause while stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...

Then again we are back to the lower end of society as changes to SS will affect the poor the most..

Eagler

The raiding of SSI funds threatens its solvency. It stood well on its own without such and still can if the political war waged against it would abate.

[CptTrips]

stating social security will go insolvent in less than 15 years is a much larger issue...

There will be no problem with SS.  It will go insolvent IF we don't fix all the things we've know need to be fixed and just haven't.  Also, worse case it wouldn't end, it just means it couldn't maintain current levels of benefits.  But I guarantee you that will get fixed without a doubt.  That is too large a voting block to screw over by anyone who ever wants to see re-election.

First, stop stealing from the fund.  Second, pay back everything taken from the fund.  Third some reasonable level of means testing would be sane.  Paris Hilton probably is not depending on her SS check to buy her Gucci purses.  Poor thing.

Also by 2035 it might not be a bad idea to bump the FRA a little bit more for younger folks.  People are living longer.

[guncrasher]

 Ya but…….  As they used to say the grass is always greener on the other side!


   When I was a kid if I had a dollar I ruled the world, I got a 2 dollar a week allowance which was about 4 or 5 times what most my friends got but I also worked which I started to do at 9 years old and it was for min wages of a buck an hour. During the school year I only worked 24 to 30 hours per week but during summer break I had to put in the 40 hours as it was a family run business and that didn’t include household chores which were expected.

 Yesterday I saw a help wanted sign, starting wage was 22 bucks per hour and up to 34 bucks depending on experience and this was for a labourers position with a construction company. Why??? Because that type work is in demand but people waste their money going to school to study the difference between the European swallow and African swallow and just how many coconuts they can carry.  I get it though it’s much more fun to,party at school than to actually do something constructive,just like it’s easier to scream and shout about takers than to do anything about it.



 <S>

I have worked in insurance companies, construction and at a steel mill.  you know how easy those jobs were?  I have a high school education and some college.  to me there wasnt that much different than when I used to make pizza at shakeys when I was in high school. there were not harder, to me they were just as easy and those companies paid more than shakey's.

but companies expected somebody to have a college degree, it didnt matter what degree, you could have a degree on watching paint dry and you would get a better job.

the steel company now requires new hires to have a college degree.  all you do is sit there and watch a machine do it's job then signal somebody or perhaps move some equipment to the next slab, roll, whatever.  a degree in watching paint dry would actually come in handy as it was boring.

but that degree in watching paint dry will come in handy when you have work experience and you come out ahead of a kid with a high school education that's probably smarter than you because that's how companies see it.

I have seen people with college education selling windows that they measure but didnt know how to actually measure.  but they had a college degree and that's what one of the companies required for sales.  hope they have a better job now as they sucked when they measured windows.

but it's companies pushing that. one of my old coworkers got a job operating cranes he was getting paid more than what we did because he had a degree in hotel management.  while not knocking down people who actually like to think, he was dumber than hell. but that's what the company wanted.  he lived in the desert, he liked to raise chickens and bought a shed to use as a chicken coop, he never understood why his chickens died of heat exhaustion in 1 day.  he said it was only 80 degrees outside.  a metal roof with no windows on a chicken coop.  what could go wrong.

that's what companies now a day want.


semp

[CptTrips]

Another great read. 

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/06/01/bear-stearns-a-lesson-in-bear-market-bounces?topic=active-management

It's amazing how people get fooled again and again.  A large part of it is these crashes are usually space far enough apart that the majority of active investors were kids during the last one and weren't around to learn the lessons.  Most people never bother to study previous cycles in history so they are doomed to make all the same mistakes all over again.  A large percentage  of investors today were in grade school during the GFC and watching Barney and Friends and playing Nintendo during the tech crash. 

And smart-money looks at them and just licks their chops.

[Eagler]

Sadly I think he has it correct here:

https://youtu.be/nrrVju_rvRo

Whatever hurts the richest the least is how it will go

Eagler

[morfiend]

I have worked in insurance companies, construction and at a steel mill.  you know how easy those jobs were?  I have a high school education and some college.  to me there wasnt that much different than when I used to make pizza at shakeys when I was in high school. there were not harder, to me they were just as easy and those companies paid more than shakey's.

but companies expected somebody to have a college degree, it didnt matter what degree, you could have a degree on watching paint dry and you would get a better job.

the steel company now requires new hires to have a college degree.  all you do is sit there and watch a machine do it's job then signal somebody or perhaps move some equipment to the next slab, roll, whatever.  a degree in watching paint dry would actually come in handy as it was boring.

but that degree in watching paint dry will come in handy when you have work experience and you come out ahead of a kid with a high school education that's probably smarter than you because that's how companies see it.

I have seen people with college education selling windows that they measure but didnt know how to actually measure.  but they had a college degree and that's what one of the companies required for sales.  hope they have a better job now as they sucked when they measured windows.

but it's companies pushing that. one of my old coworkers got a job operating cranes he was getting paid more than what we did because he had a degree in hotel management.  while not knocking down people who actually like to think, he was dumber than hell. but that's what the company wanted.  he lived in the desert, he liked to raise chickens and bought a shed to use as a chicken coop, he never understood why his chickens died of heat exhaustion in 1 day.  he said it was only 80 degrees outside.  a metal roof with no windows on a chicken coop.  what could go wrong.

that's what companies now a day want.


semp

  I case you missed it I wasn’t disagreeing with you when I quoted your post.

 I never went to collage,I could have but chose to go to work after high school. I was lucky enough to get a relatively high paying job at an auto factory so while my friends were going in debt I was making coin. By the time they were done school I was way ahead and had no dept.

 I managed to buy a modest home and paid it off in 13 years,not the 25 or 30 the bank would have wanted.To this day I carry no debt and continue to pay a monthly mortgage but I pay myself not the bank,been doing this since 98. I drive a 15 yo car,,not because I have to but because it still works and it’s cheaper to fix it than buy a newer one. I’m also not a consumer,rarely buy stuff and when I do I research the heck out of it and often takes months to make the decision.

 When I left the auto plant I started my own business,I found the only way to make what I was worth was to work for myself sure the boss was an a hole and did by any excuses for not showing up but he let me play golf and go fishing whenever I wanted to…..



  <S>

[CptTrips]

Sadly I think he has it correct here:

https://youtu.be/nrrVju_rvRo

Hard to weigh what he says because he doesn't pin any levels or time-frames.

The fed may stop hikes sooner than they say now.  A lot of inflation with correct itself as stimulus money burns off and stock, bond, real estate, crypto crash destroys enough demand to cool the economy.    I don't think the Fed merely stopping rate hikes is enough to prevent the current collapse.  I think it takes active printing to suspend the market above historical trends.  The end of rate hikes would make bonds much more attractive so at least there would be some safe haven it dip a toe in.  All this, if history is any guide, will surely result in some level of recession as well which will also lower inflation.

I believe over the next 12-24 months (failing a complete Fed reversal) the stock market will collapse down to something around SP 2500-1500 range. 
From there I expect a good bull market for the next decade.  After it burns down to below historical trend, it has room to grow at a good healthy, sustainable rate ~10-12% a year.  I don't know if that next decade long bull market is what he is talking about in the "massive rally".  I look forward to that.  I love healthy bull markets that are supported my natural growth instead of zero interest crack.  That will start inflation again, but some inflation is natural to our system, lets just keep it ~2-4%.

Up to that I think he and I have no argument.

Then I think he says it is at the end of the NEXT market cycle that we have the super crash.  Well, hell.  A full market cycle can last 20 years.  So if he is talking about a super crash then, that might be up to 30 years away.  I probably won't care by then.

And leave the country for where?  I have been sufficiently convinced by Peter Zeihan's work that due to demographics and changes to the security landscape, as messed up as the US is, the rest of the world is going to be far far worse.

For instance, when the crash is over and I go Risk-On again, my investments will NOT be including international or emerging market exposure like I used to have.  I think over the next 50 years the rest of the world is going to be WAY worse off than the US.

[Brooke]

Sadly I think he has it correct here:

https://youtu.be/nrrVju_rvRo

Whatever hurts the richest the least is how it will go

Eagler

I think it will go like that, too; and agree with CptTrips.

My gut feel is a crash (in stocks, bonds, and real estate) started in January, 2022; with bottom early to mid 2023; followed by huge inflationary boom turning into hyper-ish inflation.

I.e., this sequence of events:  Fed is currently raising rates (subtracting money), which crashes the Everything Bubble, followed by the Fed drastically lowering rates (and drastically printing money), which inflates bubbles and causes huge inflation.

I've been way wrong on my thoughts of timing things in the past, though, so who knows?

Despite how horrible it could get, I'm not thinking it will be better anywhere else.  Maybe Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, or Switzerland?  I don't know.

[guncrasher]

  I case you missed it I wasn’t disagreeing with you when I quoted your post.

 I never went to collage,I could have but chose to go to work after high school. I was lucky enough to get a relatively high paying job at an auto factory so while my friends were going in debt I was making coin. By the time they were done school I was way ahead and had no dept.

 I managed to buy a modest home and paid it off in 13 years,not the 25 or 30 the bank would have wanted.To this day I carry no debt and continue to pay a monthly mortgage but I pay myself not the bank,been doing this since 98. I drive a 15 yo car,,not because I have to but because it still works and it’s cheaper to fix it than buy a newer one. I’m also not a consumer,rarely buy stuff and when I do I research the heck out of it and often takes months to make the decision.

 When I left the auto plant I started my own business,I found the only way to make what I was worth was to work for myself sure the boss was an a hole and did by any excuses for not showing up but he let me play golf and go fishing whenever I wanted to…..



  <S>

no I was just quoting the part about college degrees.  back in 94 I was trying to hire people and the company wanted colleges degrees, it could be a degree in watching paint dry, but it was a college degree. anybody over 30 was not to be hired, company didnt say it but we all understood. kids out of college thinking they could save the world and yet didnt know to how to use a staple remover.

sorry, I am just angry and mad and bitter.  I have crane certification, welding certificate or whatever you call it. I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house, as long as I dont touch the main fuse box, that scares the crap out of me.  not including that i was an accountant at the insurance company, but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi.  it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.

I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor.  and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about.


semp

[Eagler]

Though he doesn't put a timetable on his predictions I think the 2nd crash is within 5 years probably 3.

Going with hyperinflation seems the way it will fall given that's the most taxes for the government while hurting the rich the least..

Like this guys pov also

https://youtu.be/3ExGrFGx7tY

Stay safe

Eagler

[morfiend]

no I was just quoting the part about college degrees.  back in 94 I was trying to hire people and the company wanted colleges degrees, it could be a degree in watching paint dry, but it was a college degree. anybody over 30 was not to be hired, company didnt say it but we all understood. kids out of college thinking they could save the world and yet didnt know to how to use a staple remover.

sorry, I am just angry and mad and bitter.  I have crane certification, welding certificate or whatever you call it. I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house, as long as I dont touch the main fuse box, that scares the crap out of me.  not including that i was an accountant at the insurance company, but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi.  it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.

I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor.  and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about.


semp

 Sorry to hear that semp,I get you being mad and like you said it sounds easy to get those handouts until you actually need them.

Do people take advantage,sure they do but that doesn’t mean everyone does and unfortunately a few spoil it for the rest. Personally I think if you really need the help it should be available but others would rather it be dog eat dog,until they actually have to eat dog.

Why should I go to work everyday when the guy across the street doesn’t,get disability but can renovate his house,put a roof on it and still claims he can’t work…. My answer is that’s on him not my problem. If they took it away from him would it change or effect me,nope. Although he might kick my door in and steal what little I have and I’d rather not have to deal with that. There will always be people who work the system,that said I’d rather have a system than have to stand guard just to protect what is mine.


 I had forgot that I took a few collage courses in the late 90s early 2000s but I had retired and was bored.


   <S>

[Brooke]

no I was just quoting the part about college degrees.
I can do plumbing, electricity, install windows, doors, I could basically build a house

I wish you lived near Seattle.  Up there, it's hard to get any time at all from handymen, and if you do find one available, the cost can be $100/hour.

I wonder if there will be a correction in what various types of work cost.  Maybe we have seen the peak in ratio of salary for wet-behind-the-ears younglings, ineptly writing easy low-end code for the Silicon Valley hive, compared to salary for skilled trades.  Maybe that ratio will be going down for a while.

There has for a while been a correction of salary for plumbers, electricians, welders, etc. vs. a bachelor's in English, history, sociology, etc.

There won't be a correction for unskilled labor, or for labor that takes only brief training, because of the large amounts of unskilled labor coming into the country.

[CptTrips]

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220601/

[RotBaron]

’ but cant sit or stand up for long to do that job. and yet i have to fight for ssi.  it takes me a long time to be able to get out of bed.

I cant pick up a 100 dollar bill off the floor.  and cant find anybody to tell me how to get that free stuff most of you blab about. ‘


semp

Do you have any advocate helping you, a social worker or someone from DES, possibly even the VA that has gotten to know your entire situation? If not, you need one to get SSID.

Veteran status puts you way ahead of non-veterans.

I can only infer and make assumptions from many of your posts I have read. But I have seen you write that you can barely walk, above about the $100 bill to you only have a limp. I’m not trying make judgment, however if DES case worker were to see/hear discrepancies like that, it is grounds for denial.

I’m sorry about your recent tragedy and loss, but with that under consideration I believe they’d be more interested in helping you than before.

I hope it works out soon for you.

 

[guncrasher]

I have a great social worker, she's in her mid 20's looks to be about 12 years old.  I advised her to quit. because the job will suck the life out of her.  she thinks she can save the world but it's only gonna make her not sure what to say, bitter, old, waste her life.  she just smiles and says she likes her job.  I really wish she would quit, because it's not good for her. she's sweet but eventually it will kill her.  that is sad.  grateful for the job she does but, it's not good for her.

me, I'll be alright, I will manage, it just takes time.  and time is all i have.




semp