Author Topic: College football this weekend  (Read 385 times)

Offline hblair

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College football this weekend
« on: October 25, 2002, 08:47:50 AM »
FSU and Notre Dame for one. I'm for looking Notre Dame to win. Is the gameday crew gonna at this one?

And for us SEC guys, Alabama/Tennesee should be a good game. Gonna be at Neyland this year. Maybe bama can pull it off.

Any other big games goin on?

Offline Nifty

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College football this weekend
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2002, 09:10:02 AM »
You can look all you want, hb.  :)  You ain't gonna find what you're looking for though.
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Offline Fatty

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College football this weekend
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2002, 09:12:37 AM »
You  lied to me!

Offline Eagler

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College football this weekend
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2002, 09:40:38 AM »
gotta go for FSU on this one

strange how the 6th placed (undefeated) team  is a 12 point underdog to the 13th placed team :)
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Offline Nifty

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College football this weekend
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2002, 09:48:44 AM »
prolly had something to do with the 13th place team almost (and should have) beating the #1 team in the nation AT their house the last time out.

and it's in Tally.  :)

It's gonna be wild when Corso makes his pick on GameDay right before kickoff.  :D

wow, 25 hrs away and I'm already getting excited!
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Offline Ripsnort

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College football this weekend
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2002, 09:50:29 AM »
#1 team i Oklahoma! WTG! (not human poll, but computer one, you know, the one that decides the bowl games :D )

Offline Eagler

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College football this weekend
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2002, 09:52:27 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort
#1 team i Oklahoma! WTG! (not human poll, but computer one, you know, the one that decides the bowl games :D )


Only until #2 crushes them :)
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Offline hblair

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College football this weekend
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2002, 10:17:47 AM »
Man, sometimes I think I've completely lost my mind. I meant to type FSU as the winner. I wasn't even joking. I need a vacation.

Offline Nifty

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College football this weekend
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2002, 10:47:13 AM »
Rip, BCS standings mean very little at this time of year.  The computer rankings won't really make sense until more games are played, especially with no margin of victory input into the games.

Strength of schedule at this point doesn't really say much.  Oklahoma benefited from playing Texas and Iowa State back to back at this point.  Miami has played FSU and Florida so far, but Florida's problems are hurting Miami's schedule.  Miami gets their "Texas" come December when they play Va Tech.

Also, Notre Dame has the top schedule and FSU has the 3rd.  This means Miami's schedule strength part that comes from opponent's opponents will get a bit stronger.   If FSU beats ND, Miami should close the gap on Oklahoma in the computer polls.  If Penn St beats OSU, Miami will also close the gap.  Same if Kentucky beats Georgia.  If Tennessee beats Alabama, it will slightly affect Oklahoma now, and slightly help Miami come November when they play the Vols.
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Offline midnight Target

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College football this weekend
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2002, 10:55:02 AM »
strength of schedule... baaaah!

The Pac10 may be the toughest league in the nation and they continue to be discounted by the Eastern press weeeeenies!

Go Bruins

Offline Pfunk

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College football this weekend
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2002, 11:27:37 AM »
Two words for you


GO DAWGS

Offline Holden McGroin

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College football this weekend
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2002, 12:15:25 PM »
Maybe UCLA can lose their third in a row...:D
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Offline midnight Target

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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2002, 12:42:35 PM »
Ouch...

Well the Ducks (ranked #7?) got lucky, and the Golden Bears ... well they spanked us, but Stanford's goin down baby!

Put a "State" somewhere in the name though and we are tough!

Beat
Oklahoma St.
Colorado St.
San Diego St.
Oregon St.

Maybe this doesn't bode well for the Stanford game.

WTH... Beat Stanford State!

Offline Nifty

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College football this weekend
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2002, 12:52:38 PM »
Sorry MT, "strength of schedule" is nothing more than wins and losses.  It has nothing to do with who you are playing, just what their record is and their opponent's record (2/3 opponents and 1/3 opponent's opponents.)

It has nothing to do with a subjective ranking of teams.

East Coast bias by the media?  HA!  Go check the rankings from the end of last year.  Hell, dig up the thread from last year if you can where I said the same thing I'm saying right now.  Oregon was ranked #2 in both voting polls at the end of last year.  Yup, the MEDIA and the coaches (or whoever voted for that coach) had Oregon as the team to play Miami.  

Let's see what happened.  Miami was the clear #1.  Nebraska was 4th in both.  So before the computers came in, Oregon had a 2 point lead for the #2 spot.  (Oregon also had a 1 point lead over Colorado.)  

Computer scores are next.  Nebraska had a 2.17 avg (throw out highest and lowest score then avg the remaining 6), Colorado had 4.50 and Oregon had 4.87.  Nebraska is now in the lead with 6.17 to Oregon's 6.87 and Colorado's 7.50.  

Why did this happen?  4 polls used margin of victory and 4 didn't.  The 4 that did had Nebraska 2, 3, 2, 2 and Oregon 8, 7, 6, 7.  those that didn't were Neb 2, 2, 2, 3 Ore 3, 3, 3, 2.   It's obvious that margin of victory is what propelled Nebraska over Oregon at this point.  Avg the 4 that did NOT use MOV and you have Neb 2.25 and Oregon 2.75, which would have left Oregon with a 1.5 point advantage.  Col would have had a 4.25 from their 4 non MOV scores, so Oregon would have opened a 2.5 lead on Colorado.

We move on to "schedule strength."  Once again, objective wins and losses.  Neb 14, Col 2,  Ore 31.  Gives 0.56, 0.08 and 1.24 points.  We now add in losses.  Neb lost 1, Col 2 and Ore 1.  scores are now Neb 7.73, Col 9.58 and Ore 9.07.

Lastly the quality win component.  Neb beat Oklahoma for a -0.5.  Colorado beat Nebraska and Texas for a -2.3.  Oregon beat Wash and Wash St for -0.4.  

Final scores 7.23 Neb, 7.28 Col and 8.67 Oregon.

If you remove the four MOV computers, you'd have gotten 7.31 for Neb, 7.03 for Col and 6.55 for Oregon.

Conclusion?  There was no East Coast media bias or East Coast bias at all that slighted Oregon last year.  It was margin of victory in 4 computer polls that did it.  It also did it to Miami when FSU went to the Orange Bowl after the 2000 season instead of Miami (caveat here is that Miami would have gone if the quality win component was in effect in 2000.)
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Offline -ammo-

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College football this weekend
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2002, 01:21:33 PM »
Roll Tide Roll!!!!

Vols are going down.

prediction-

bama- 28
vols- 24
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