Sixpence: I blame Clinton. And despite miko's prognostications of doom, I have decided to earn a dollar today. You are not earning "dollars". You are earning
purchasing power measured in dollars. You gave labor and received living accomodations, food, clothes and claims on goods or income-creating assets. Money is just a mediulm that facilitates such an exchange with many participants.
Nothing wrong with earning. Keeping the purchasing power as dollars is another matter altogether. Over the last 20 years the purchasing power of a dollar declined by half.
The world holds $35 trillion dollars. Do you think US has stuff to sell if all of you decide to cash those in?
Sikboy
Glad to oblige. The topic is: Mainstream "Economists".
miko
Economist: Jackson poll - A sure way to predict the future
THE high point of the international economics calendar is the annual symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The intense competition to attend this conference has, of course, nothing to do with the fact that it is held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, a stunningly beautiful Rocky Mountain resort. The quality of the papers presented and the rigorous intellectual debate in the company of Alan Greenspan and many of the world's other top central bankers is sufficient pull.
Since these include some of America's top economists, your correspondent has made a habit of taking a poll each year. At the peak of the stockmarket boom they were asked, “is this a bubble?”“No”, they voted[/i]. In August 2001 they were asked, “will America's economy dip into recession?”“No chance”, they replied.[/i] The economy turned out already to be in recession. Last year's question was, “will the federal funds rate (then 1.75%) fall to 1% or less within the next year?” Almost everybody said “no”[/i] (a senior Fed official wisely declined to vote). Only two economists correctly predicted rates of 1%.
Given this remarkable record, it would be remiss not to poll our elite group once again this year—and then bet on the exact opposite.
Economist: Jackson poll, 2003 - A guide to the future Two weeks ago, we revealed the remarkable forecasting record of America's top economists who attend this event. Our economics editor has conducted informal polls each year.. In late 1999 our gang was confident that the stockmarket would not crash; in 2001 they ruled out an American recession; and last year they predicted that interest rates would not fall to 1%. In short, they have provided an excellent contrarian indicator. What might they get wrong this year?
Hearty thanks are due to the 200 readers who suggested questions for the 2003 poll. The most popular by far was: “Does America have a house-price bubble?” So we asked our terrace gang: “Will average house prices fall in the year to mid 2004?” All but one firmly answered “No”. We then made them work harder with a second poser: “Will the dollar fall to $1.25 against the euro at any time in the next 12 months”? When the question was put, one euro bought $1.10. Again with one exception, the answer was a resounding “No”.
Accordingly, your correspondent is betting that the dollar and house prices will fall over the next year. On the other hand, many of these economists probably read our article two weeks ago and therefore gave the opposite answer to what they really think. As one reader says, “it would be dumb for them to reply in any other way.”
Yes, it would be - and dumb is what they usually do.
After all those are the same economists who say such idiocies as:
"Consumer Spending rather than saving and investment promote growth" or
"By taking word's products and resources and converting them into waste and polution and not providing goods/services in return US somehow benefits those countries" and
"Countries benefit from exporting stuff for no value in return rather than from importing stuff that could not be had locally as cheap or at all".
miko
