Very good points!
I was looking forward to the issue of base spacing. U had valid reasoning there too, but IMO the theory of "expanding and contracting fronts" or "bottle necks" does not work alone. They are always depending on base spacing.
Any one base can be destroyed on expanding and contracting fronts, but capturing (or keeping) it depends on how close the next bases behind the front line are. If they are close enough, one can easily defend the front base from a next line base... and especially if that front line base is a bottle neck.
Some good examples are the west country in Mindanao and North country in sfma. I have never seen them conquered.. prolly has been done, but such would be very rare.
Often the visual geographical borders also have a huge psychological effect on base capturing. On Baltic map the water means border.. even when bases are close to each other. If enemy captures a base on your shore, you get plenty of country mates to counter attack. If there was no water on the same map, it would not look so threatening and the loss of that base would not seem so drastic. On some maps the mountain ranges have the same effect. On akdesert the waters sometimes seem to fool people to forget that half of their original area has been lost. They are happy to occupy one slice completely and let the enemy bounce the unprotected HQ in the corner of the slice.