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Islamic Militants Take Strength from Anger at U.S.Wed May 26, 2004 04:17 AM ET
RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - Soaring Arab anger at the U.S. occupation of Iraq and Washington's policy toward Israel has given a major recruitment boost to Islamic militants preaching global war, Islamists and regional analysts say.
Fury in the Arab world, stoked by battles between Iraqis and U.S. troops, has reached new peaks over the revelations of humiliating prisoner abuse by U.S. jailers.
Adding to the fire is a feeling Washington has been far too soft on Israel over a raid on Gaza that killed at least 42 Palestinians, weeks after President Bush gave Israeli leader Ariel Sharon rare assurances for a Gaza pullout plan.
"Unfortunately I find myself thanking the two tyrants Bush and Sharon, who with their stupid policies and their hostility toward Arabs and Muslims, have increased the Islamic awakening," said radical Jordanian Islamist Min'em Abu Zant.
Despite the willingness of groups like al-Qaeda to carry out attacks inflicting mass casualties, analysts say the message of global war is heeded by a minority of the region's population.
Islamist struggles that have won significant popular support have tended to be for more localized issues -- like the groups bent on destroying Israel or insurgencies in Algeria and Egypt -- even if a hardcore of fighters have moved from war to war.
But analysts say that Islamists gunning for a broader conflict are thriving in the new atmosphere of discontent.
"There is competition between militant and moderate Islamic groups over embracing the Palestinian and Iraqi causes," said Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi. "Moderate Muslims and Arab regimes have failed and the militant Muslims are seeking to fill this vacuum," he said.
Ordinary Arabs appeared little convinced this week by Washington's request for U.N. endorsement for a handover of power to an interim Iraqi government on June 30 while U.S. troops remain.
HUMILIATION
The important question is whether the Islamists will win many new recruits. With few reliable opinion polls in the region it is hard to tell.
"It stands to reason, given a more polarized situation," said Washington-based analyst Rob Malley, while cautioning that it was too early to tell how big such an effect might be.
"There is a sense of humiliation and oppression in Palestine and in Iraq and elsewhere, the people in the Arab world view them as shared experiences and one reinforces the other," he said.
A leading London think tank said on Tuesday that recruitment to al-Qaeda had accelerated as a result of the Iraq war. The International Institute for Strategic Studies said the group now had more than 18,000 militants ready to strike.
Some analysts think the intensified spirit of anger could fuel nascent struggles by al-Qaeda linked groups in states like Saudi Arabia, facing a growing number of attacks, and Jordan, which said recently it foiled a huge strike by militants.
There could also be a resurgence of violent Islamists in countries like Egypt and Algeria, where they had been stamped out through heavy-handed military action by more-or-less pro-Western governments, analysts say.
"Everyone is drawing inspiration from the spirit of revenge. I don't know if we have ever seen such a period of despair," said Mansour al-Nogaidan, a former Saudi militant jailed for attacks against video stores, now a newspaper columnist.
Secular politicians and more moderate Islamic groups worry that their influence could shrink in the short term as a result of the anger.
But they also argue that the majority of Arabs will look beyond the ferocious rhetoric and hope that change comes from outside.
"The Arabs admire U.S. culture, values, and successes, but they hate U.S. policies," said Palestinian political analyst Khalil Shikaki. "The minute we see a shift in U.S. policies... we could see a weakening of the radical Islamic movements." (Additional reporting by Andrew Hammond)
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