Iran is interesting. I just saw a Frontline episode on Iranian reformist journalists. It was very surprising. You have about half the population that are young, western leaning and reform minded (born after the revolution), and the other half that is more conservative. There is a popular reform minded president that has no power, but fairly strong support, and a religious fundamentalist council in real, but shallow control.
The thing about Iran is that there is a real reform effort underway, and both the reformists and conservatives realize that neither has the power to fully dominate the other, and both seem to want to avoid a violent revolution. There is some degree of latitude to the press, but to stay open the press knows what lines not to cross (and crossing them gets the papers shut down). But, they do push that line, and they talk openly about it, about the need to stay in print even if only as a neutered opposition voice. And it's a line that allows criticism of at least the social issues in a fairly open manner and the political issues in a subtle and careful manner.
Even the people interviewed on the street spoke fairly openly about knowing that there are lines and edited truths, seemingly without a high degree of "Stalinist" type fear. You also notice many women in senior production and management positions. You see them asking “fairly” tough questions of male conservative officials (that get red lined out in the final editing most of the time). And you see the religious official “spinning” Mohammed as the ultimate reformer and doing a slick PR redirection job -- like a US politician stealing the opposition’s platform.
So there is a good chance that Iran will work itself out eventually. The reporters interviewed noted the limitations, expressed frustrations, openly but subtly criticized the government and noted that they will continue to work for change. Similarly, they noted that they still have hope because they love their country. That was readily apparent. So, a strike might solve short-term goals, if successful, but it might very well eliminate the eventual long-term reform that would make Iran less of a threat, nuclear or otherwise. It would probably be more valuable to the current ruling council than the weapons themselves.
It was really surprising. Iran seemed, frankly, far more open and Western than, say, the Peoples Republic of China. Perhaps somewhere between the mainland and Hong Kong. More open than Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, socially and where the media is concerned. As an aside, Marlon Brando’s death, which happened while filming, was front page news.
Charon
