Author Topic: AOL Presidential Straw Poll (Read 2080 times)

Eagler · « **Reply #120 on:** October 25, 2004, 05:54:27 AM »

funny you say that skerry would not have gone to war if he were POTUS yet, seeing/hearing the same intel as Bush, skerry voted to give Bush the power to go to war...

another hindsight 20/20 expert...

I truly belive if Bush HAD NOT invaded, the election cry from the left would be:

"WHY HASN"T BUSH INVADED IRAQ!!! HE IS TOO WEAK!!! HE DOES NOT WANT TO UPSET HIS OIL BUDDIES!!! HE WANTS ANOTHER 9/11!!!"

"VOTE FOR ME, JOHN SKERRY AND I PROMISE YOU I WILL INVADE IRAQ, KICK SADDAMS ARSE AND PROTECT YOU FROM ANOTHER 9/11 FOREVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR !!!! ... cause I have a plan"

LOL LOL LOL

Halo · « **Reply #121 on:** October 27, 2004, 06:07:16 PM »

Five days after this post began, with another 55,536 votes to make a total of 334,121, the AOL Presidential Election October straw poll shows Bush still leading the popular vote by the same 10-point margin and gaining one state, Maine, for four more electoral votes.

The latest:

Electoral Votes

Bush 478 (270 needed to win), all states except 5 and DC

Kerry 60, 5 states (VT, NY, MA, RI, CT) and DC

Nader 0

Popular Vote

Bush 55%,
Kerry 44%,
Nader 1%

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

Halo · « **Reply #122 on:** October 27, 2004, 08:29:35 PM »

After the election, take a look at this poll with its huge numbers and see how it ranks with other much smaller polls in predicting the winner.

Bush leads in spite of a Democratic party anti-Bush ad on AOL's lead-in screen the past month or so.

Halo · « **Reply #123 on:** October 31, 2004, 05:08:42 PM »

Four days after last update and nine days after this post began, with another 55,131 votes to make a total of 389,252, the AOL Presidential Election October straw poll shows Bush still leading by the same 10-point popular vote margin and 88.8% of the electoral college votes.

The latest:

Electoral Votes

Bush 478 (270 needed to win), all states except 5 and DC

Kerry 60, 5 states (VT, NY, MA, RI, CT) and DC

Nader 0

Popular Vote

Bush 55%,
Kerry 44%,
Nader 1%

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

__________________

Gunslinger · « **Reply #124 on:** October 31, 2004, 05:10:17 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Halo
Four days after last update and nine days after this post began, with another 55,131 votes to make a total of 389,252, the AOL Presidential Election October straw poll shows Bush still leading by the same 10-point popular vote margin and 88.8% of the electoral college votes.

The latest:

Electoral Votes

Bush 478 (270 needed to win), all states except 5 and DC

Kerry 60, 5 states (VT, NY, MA, RI, CT) and DC

Nader 0

Popular Vote

Bush 55%,
Kerry 44%,
Nader 1%

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

__________________

I know it's a straw poll but they have Kerry winning Kalifornia???? Cmon!:rolleyes:

Halo · « **Reply #125 on:** October 31, 2004, 05:26:59 PM »

Ahnuld has big broad shoulders for more Republican piggybackers than anyone suspected.

(feeling a song coming on) ... George Bush wins it, this I know, for the BigPoll tells me so ....

Eagler · « **Reply #126 on:** October 31, 2004, 08:45:34 PM »

funny
how the largest poll of the election has not made the media airwaves

LANDSLIDE BUSH!!!!!!

Halo · « **Reply #127 on:** November 01, 2004, 09:42:54 AM »

That is strange, Eagler. Of course every poll has its own advocates, and some are media-sponsored. All have much smaller populations although some supposedly are more scientific and hence representative than AOL's.

Aside from some Aces High bulletin boarders' snide remarks about AOL and its customers, even with potential multi votes from the seven possible screen names available to each customer, the poll has more than 300,000 votes from some 20 million AOLers.

That's 300 times more people than are in most other polls of less than a thousand people.

My best guess at generalizing the AOL population is reasonably savvy computer users big on user friendly interface, probably average income or above, but from there on I can't even guess the demographics other than to say nationwide as shown by the polling.

So you and AOL are the main predictors of a Bush landslide.

Will be fascinating to see how accurate or inaccurate you both are when the dust settles.

Halo · « **Reply #128 on:** November 01, 2004, 09:54:22 AM »

At 395,766 votes, a day before the election, Bush continues his same leading margins and is unlikely to pick up any of the five states and DC remaining for Kerry.

The two closest state races seem to be California and Minnesota, each showing Bush leading only 50% to Kerry's 49% and Nader's 1%. California has 55 electoral votes and Minnesota 10.

Thrawn · « **Reply #129 on:** November 01, 2004, 11:36:27 AM »

NEVAR FORGIT TEH BEAVAR!

Halo · « **Reply #130 on:** November 01, 2004, 03:27:22 PM »

Still same lead with 415,795 votes, as of 8:45 a.m. on election day.

This year the closest state race might be California with its huge number of 55 electoral votes.

In California, AOL straw poll shows Bush still leading Kerry 50% to 49% by only 388 votes, 20,169 to 19,781, of 40,277. Nader has 1%, 327 votes.

Halo · « **Reply #131 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:56:13 PM »

So President Bush got re-elected as the AOL poll predicted, but not by the landslide predicted.

Instead of 478 electoral votes, Bush got 286 (including 12 not yet announced, 7 from Iowa and 5 from New Mexico).

Instead of 60 electoral votes, Kerry got 252.

Instead of winning all states but 5 and the District of Columbia, Bush won 31 states (counting Iowa and New Mexico) while Kerry won 18 and the District of Columbia.

Bush won the popular vote 51% to 48%, the largest margin in recent elections, but not the 55% to 45% the AOL poll predicted.

Still, not a bad showing for the huge AOL Presidential Straw Poll, as good or better than most other much smaller polls.

Probably the most obvious generalization is AOL members apparently are more Republican oriented than the general public, especially in the 13 states the AOL poll predicted would go to Bush but instead went to Kerry.