Iraqi Election May Affect Middle East
Mon Jan 31, 4:08 PM ET Middle East - AP
By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Iraq (news - web sites)'s election, however imperfect, could increase pressure on other authoritarian Arab countries to begin political reforms and hold free balloting.
"The Americans were able to hold elections in Iraq and that made them much more comfortable in carrying on with their policies in the Middle East," said Lebanese political analyst Ali Hamadeh. "They showed everybody that you can carry on with an electoral process even when you have security problems."
Hamadeh said the message of the election is that if Iraq could carry out "an all-weather democratic process" there is no excuse for other countries not to reform.
Many are feeling the pressure at least to make a show of democratic reform, and 2005 is shaping up to be the year of Middle East elections, even if few of them are expected to threaten the established regimes.
The Palestinians held a poll — widely praised, despite a few irregularities — that brought Mahmoud Abbas to power earlier this month to replace the late Yasser Arafat (news - web sites).
Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, will hold its first municipal elections in 45 years beginning Feb. 10 — a vote postponed from September.
A parliamentary election in Lebanon, expected by May, will test Syria's grip on the country as the West pushes Damascus to withdraw its army. Three previous elections were influenced deeply by Syria, which will face pressure to back off.
Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country, holds presidential and parliamentary elections later this year, although the presidential vote is essentially a referendum on one candidate approved by a parliament dominated by President Hosni Mubarak (news - web sites)'s party. Mubarak, 76 and in power since 1981, is seeking a fifth six-year term despite calls to retire.
Jordan's King Abdullah II announced plans last week to introduce limited democratic reforms by establishing elected councils to oversee development. In a CNN interview shown Monday, he said the Iraqi elections set a positive tone for the region.
"Once you open the door of reform and it's allowed to be discussed in society, as it is throughout the Middle East, it's very difficult to close again. So I think that people are waking up, leaders are understanding that they have to push reform forward and I don't think there's any looking back," he said.
Others were more hesitant, saying the regional impact of the elections remained to be seen.
"The United States considers that just holding an election is a triumph by itself. This is hollow talk," said Hassan Nafaa, a political science professor at Cairo University. "The core of the issue is whether the elections are the beginning of a solution to the Iraq crisis or whether they are part of an escalation."
After toppling Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) in 2003, the United States promised Iraq would become a model for Arab democracy, and it pushed regimes in the region to yield to some local demands for change. Reform, Washington says, will make Muslim and Arab societies less fertile ground for extremists.
That policy was broadly reinforced in President Bush (news - web sites)'s second inaugural speech.
"It is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world," Bush said.
With the Iraq elections over, Saudi Arabia could feel the pressure to proceed with reforms and Syria to seal off its border with Iraq and to stop interfering in Lebanon. There may also be the opportunity for an American dialogue with Iran, Hamadeh said.
Despite the praise for Iraq's vote, some Arab media questioned its legitimacy, notably because of the minimal turnout by Sunni Arabs, many of whom boycotted. Other Arab opinion-makers deplored the U.S. role in the elections.
In the Jordanian newspaper Ad-Dustour, columnist Oraib al Rintawi wrote: "The election in Iraq was dictated by American arrogance against the will of most of its people."
Critics of American policy in the region say the U.S. push for democracy is only another effort to further the U.S. agenda.
Fahmi Howeidi, a liberal Islamic writer in Egypt, viewed the Iraqi balloting as "a moment that served American interests and not the interests of the Iraqi people."
"It will have no bearing on the Middle East, except Iraq," he said.
