China ready to strike Taiwan, military on alert...

[oboe]

Personally I'd prefer a high road approach but I wouldn't be surprised to learn our intelligence services are looking into a plan similar to what Toad proposes.

Remember the old saying that "a Capitalist will sell you the rope with which to hang him"?   LOL, we were all so worried about the Soviet commies, did we forget that China was a communist nation too?   Only in the case of China, it looks like we have the rope manufactured for us by their cheap labor before we sell it.

Meanwhile, Osama Bin Laden is still out there, probably laughing his prettythang off at us.

[Toad]

There is no "high road" approach unless you want our kids to defend Taiwan. Remember that Mutual Security Pact? The "high road" would be to honor that. You want your kid standing between the Chinese Army and Taiwan when the shooting starts?

The smart way is probably to funnel the weapons through Israel. We know the Israelis have nukes; I'm sure with all the aid we give them, they could be persuaded to help out.

Of course, you're aware of this, right?

Report on the 1979 Vela Incident

or:

There is no evidence that Israel has ever carried out a nuclear test, although many observers speculated that a suspected nuclear explosion in the southern Indian Ocean in 1979 was a joint South African-Israeli test.

I was still active in NSA-directed Recon at that time. There were rumors that Taiwan was a third party to that test.

So you just never know, do you?

Osama may be out there; I seriously doubt he's laughing though.

[Russian]

Some people seriously underestimating China. They can take over that little island before US can seriously react. And just because EU doesn’t sell high-tech weapons, Russian weapon industry is more then happy to sell top of the line stuff to China.  

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FD10Ad02.html

The second phase would begin after airborne forces captured Sungshan Airport. With a secure landing strip, China would fly in elements of its 14 divisions of "rapid reaction" troops using Ilyushin Il-76, Shaanxi Y-8, Antonov 26, and Xian Y-7 troop transports, with air support from China's 1,000 bombers and fighters. China's 10 Il-76 transports can carry 130 troops apiece, though this limitation could be overcome by commandeering aircraft belonging to commercial courier and passenger airlines. China has about 500 Boeings and Airbuses from which to choose. Some of China's heavy-lift transports would bring in BMD-2 Airborne Combat Vehicles and an assortment of armored vehicles. These air-lifted troops would spread throughout the city, securing bridges and key intersections. In addition, China has 200 transport helicopters capable of carrying commandos to Taiwan.

[Sox62]

Taiwan seems to have a decent air force.

Those transports still have to make it there.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/taiwan/airforce.htm

[Toad]

If China went for Taiwan and meant it, no one is going to stop them short of nukes. You don't have to be a big time military analyst to figure that out either.

Look at the supply line from China to Taiwan and from the US to Taiwan. Any questions?

If it starts, the Chinese win in short order unless nukes are used.

Now.. do you want the US tossing nukes or the Taiwanese?

What do you think would play best on the world stage?

[rshubert]

and it's a big IF, the chinese decided to air lift an invasion force, they would have a problem with logistics.  Until the strait is open to their shipborne traffic, they can't get enough beans and bullets into the island to take it in time to prevent a US reaction.

Nobody has yet run a completely airborne invasion that worked, except the Germans in Crete.  There, the island was isolated in a way that Formosa is not--the Japanese and US forces in the area would OWN the sea approaches.

Respectfully,

shubie

[oboe]

Well, relatively higher road than covertly supply nukes.  I'm sure we would frown on any other nation covertly supplying nukes to another nation, so wouldn't it be hypocritical to do it ourselves?   (Not that I think that would stop us for a second).   But no, I wouldn't want my boys over there in the middle of a shooting war between China and Taiwan.

What is our compelling national interest in defending Taiwan, anyway?   And how does it compare to our national interest in preserving the trade relationship with our largest(?) trading partner and lender to our government?    Would we really want Taiwan to use nukes we supplied, and perhaps seriously damage the Chinese population and/or manufacturing infrastructure?   We've got lots of powerful CEOs in this country making money hand over fist because of operations which have been moved to China.   Would they want our government selling Taiwan instruments to destroy that profitable relationship?

Maybe the high road would be to admit how important China is to us and negate the treaty with Taiwan.    Perhaps Walmart has lobbyists in DC right now arguing that very point, who knows?

[Toad]

The straight is about 100 miles wide.  How many naval task force commanders want to be that restricted when they're within 5 minutes flying time of a huge land-based air force?

[Toad]

Originally posted by oboe
What is our compelling national interest in defending Taiwan, anyway?  

I'd say it would be the worth of our word. We freely gave them a Mutual Security Pact in 1954 and we have continually reiterated the intent therein through the years.

What do we do now? Say, "Sorry, deal's off.... we're into cheap tools, cotton t-shirts and flip-flops way too far now. You guys are on your own."

What effect would that have on us globally?

It's a mess, no doubt about it.

[storch]

If china wanted taiwan they wouldn't need nukes.  they wouldn't need barges, landing craft, transports, or even weapons.  they could march people into the ocean and make a cadavre causeway and then walk over and eat and crap the place into submission.  taiwan exists as a "rogue province" because china allows it to.

[oboe]

What a different world it is today than it was in 1954.   I think the sooner admit the truth, the better off we will be, and yeah, too bad for the Taiwanese.    As you say, nobody wants their children fighting over there anyway, so would we really defend Taiwan?

And in supplying them nukes would just damage our economic relationship with China, especially if they are used.   OTOH, maybe that's exactly why we should do it...

[Toad]

Originally posted by oboe
OTOH, maybe that's exactly why we should do it...

It'd sure give them something else to think about, wouldn't it?

[Bodhi]

Originally posted by storch
taiwan exists as a "rogue province" because china allows it to.

I disagree.

Taiwan exists because of the US / Chinese economic relationship.  If we stop sending them steel, heavy equipment, and grain, and stop allowing their crap to be imported, things will become very untenable for them indeed.

There is not going to be an invasion of Taiwan.  The Chinese won't risk it, the Taiwanese can not afford it, and the US will just continue to control the situation through the relationship China has with us.

[JB88]

i am certain that the chines just want to
liberate the misguided taiwanese.

heck of an example we gave em eh?

[NUKE]

It would be a major task for China to try to take Taiwan, and a tast that they probably would fail at, in my opinion.

Give China a few more years to build up their navy and transport ability, then yes.....right now, no.

The only thing China could really do to Taiwan is launch a bunch of missles at it, which would not be enough to take Taiwan.

Taiwan has a more than capable modern military and China just does noit have the means to land troops and equipment.