Originally posted by Bodhi
There is not going to be an invasion of Taiwan. The Chinese won't risk it, the Taiwanese can not afford it, and the US will just continue to control the situation through the relationship China has with us.
That really depends on the US & Taiwan. The current US "let's annoy the Chinese" 'diplomatic' policy of joining with the oh-so hated Japanese to defend Taiwanese independence is the most likely reason for the secession law that was passed: it is a diplomatic finger to the US. And a reminder that the PRC always does stuff the way it wants to, however much other countries like to think they hold influence over it.
It is also a line in the sand, however, because they're quite serious about the law too: they will invade if they think they have to, and they'll probably win because at the end of the day, Taiwan is the size of Delaware & Maryland, with a population of 22 million, and China is huge with a population of 1,300 million and the US lacks the kind of political will (and at present, possibly the manpower) to defend it. The PRC on the other hand will persue it if it thinks it has to and won't stop: in their eyes it is a domestic issue and nothing to do with anyone outside of China.
With a UNSC veto, there'll be no outcry from the UN, so a UN task-force is out of the question, and Taiwan is recognized only as a province of China, so as far as the UN charter goes it is - as the PRC always points out - a domestic affair, a issue entirely within Chinese sovereignty.
So on balance, you're off the mark: the Chinese will definitely risk it, the Taiwanese might just risk it too: it's really only the US that might not. As for the Japanese - well I'm not sure - I have an inkling they would almost definitely fold ASAP: China is more important to them than the US, economically-speaking, and they are far too close to China and her nuclear weapons to risk it. In a nuclear exchange, the US would lose a few ships - the Japanese have to live there.
