Author Topic: China ready to strike Taiwan, military on alert...  (Read 2268 times)

Offline -dead-

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China ready to strike Taiwan, military on alert...
« Reply #60 on: March 14, 2005, 03:18:20 PM »
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Originally posted by NUKE
Without the US, can there even be a UN task force?
Doesn't matter. No blue rinse = aftermath is prohibitively expensive = US not very interested. Invasion Iraq's total cost hovers at somewhere around $156 billion so far, with the promise of at least another ten years of this being touted by the Pentagon. Iraq is tiny compared to China.

The US trade deficit is somewhere around $55-60 billion per month, federal deficit closing in on $8,000 billion at $2.3 billion per day. A war with China won't help this one little bit, and no blue rinse would just extend the agony.
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #61 on: March 14, 2005, 03:18:38 PM »
If the US put it's full might and attacked China during the Korean war, China would have lost.

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2005, 03:20:54 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by -dead-
Doesn't matter. No blue rinse = aftermath is prohibitively expensive = US not very interested. Invasion Iraq's total cost hovers at somewhere around $156 billion so far, with the promise of at least another ten years of this being touted by the Pentagon. Iraq is tiny compared to China.

 


Well, we didn't go into Iraq to whipe it out. We are spending money in Iraq to avoid damage and build the country back up.

If we went to war with China, we would just destroy it.

Offline -dead-

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« Reply #63 on: March 14, 2005, 03:31:13 PM »
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Originally posted by NUKE
Well, we didn't go into Iraq to whipe it out. We are spending money in Iraq to avoid damage and build the country back up.

If we went to war with China, we would just destroy it.
Well that'd be a waste of natural resources and a huge market - I don't think the Pentagon's suppliers would join you in the "destroy it" plan. And of course there'd be the problem of the US forces being war criminals too, so I'd say the US lacks the political will to do that either.

Besides if you start to go down that route it ends up as a nuclear war, where everybody loses. Nuke China and you'll have Russia, India and Pakistan looking for nuclear payback, because they'd all be poisoned too.

So the nuclear option isn't really available, so the destroy the place option isn't really available either.
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Offline Toad

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« Reply #64 on: March 14, 2005, 03:32:23 PM »
...and the Chinese were being pushed back to the Yalu when "political considerations" halted the UN/US attacks.

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On May 10 the Chinese launched a second offensive, concentrating their main effort on the eastern sector of the UN line. Van Fleet attacked in the west, north of Seoul. The surprised Communist units pulled back, suffering their heaviest casualties of the war, and by the end of May they were retreating into North Korea. By late June, a military stalemate had developed as the battle lines stabilized in the vicinity of the 38th parallel.


Van Fleet was ordered to halt offensive operations by Ridgeway. The Chicoms were hardly invincible. The death toll on our side would have been much higher and the Chinese would have lost astronomically. Van Fleet inflicted 200,000 casualties on the Communists in a drive north of the 38th Parallel to the Iron Triangle area of North Korea after the Chicom attack in May '51.
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Offline NUKE

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« Reply #65 on: March 14, 2005, 03:36:57 PM »
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Originally posted by Octavius
Your posts are akin to taking a rorschach dump on the keyboard, squishing it around, and contemplating which animal it looks like.

Educate yourself with that link.  If you're still stumped, I'll manually point out your ignorance.


sorry, I don't play the "link" game pothead. I am informed enough to argue my own points.

Offline Rolex

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« Reply #66 on: March 14, 2005, 07:05:15 PM »
I agree with -dead-. If there ever a book-length topic, this is it. Let's start with a small dose of the politics and do the economics later.

The US sent carriers during China's sabre rattling in the 90's, but the mutual security treaty of 1954 was with Formosa. Taiwan is now a non-entity without diplomatic (or legal) recognition so the treaty would be considered no longer valid by the US if desired.

One must keep in mind that the change in China/Taiwan status during the Nixon years was based on the (astounding) premise that the US relationship with China would help the US keep Japan under control. The official US policy in the 1970's was that Japan must still be contained.

Chinese leaders know well that taking something is easy if you persevere. China has built outposts on small islands controlled by Indonesia and Thailand and along major shipping routes without anyone standing up to them. They just did it.

The colonization of Formosa by Japan is considered by Chinese to be the greatest humiliation in the long history of China. The fact that Taiwan is still not part of the fold keeps this wound alive, and Chinese politicians are adept as any western politicans in funneling their society's opinions for their own purposes.

Pride is just as strong a motivator of Chinese government actions and society as any other nation. Maybe more so. China's leaders know quite well that any action against Taiwan would be justifiable and supported in the eyes of the people who have been 'prepped' before the operation. The US and UK proved how easy it is to prep the population of a democracy with flag waving, even in societies with a free press.

I believe China learned some other tremendous lessons from the invasion of Iraq that make a big difference in today's dynamic. The lessons being that there is no such thing as international law; the US is not intersted in using the position of sole superpower to advance any noble casuses such as global stablity, it is interested in advancing its own interests only; the US 'one China' policy in essense endorses any action to bring Taiwan back under China's control; the use of military force to 'return' Taiwan will not be challenged by the UN.

Will the Chinese invade? If necessary, they will. They simply made it 'lawful' now. They are sitting back gauging the reaction to their move to make it lawful.

Do they want to invade? No. they would prefer not to. They are just keeping their options open because conditions change. Hong Kong still isn't as stable as they would like and they are learning now what works and doesn't work in reunification.

Will the US defend Taiwan if there ever were an attack? I would say the US is more interested in pushing Taiwan toward accepting peaceful reunification, then supply or defending Taiwan. The US would rather save face by pushing Taiwan toward voluntary reunification than trying to push China right now. What choice would Taiwan have when the US says, "Reunify or fight China on you're own."

The economics of this Japan/Taiwan/China/US puzzle are pretty complicated, so we'll leave that for later.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #67 on: March 14, 2005, 07:28:42 PM »
The China Card was played by Nixon as an anti-soviet move.

The Defense of Formosa was an anti Mao move during the Korean War.

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On 05 January 1950 President Harry Truman announced that "the United States will not involve in the dispute of Taiwan Strait", which meant America would not intervene if the Chinese communists were to attack Taiwan. However, on 25 June 1950 the Korean War broke out, and President Truman reacted by declaring the "neutralization of the Straits of Formosa" on June 27. The Seventh Fleet was sent into the Straits under orders to prevent any attack on the island, and also prevent the Kuomintang forces to attack on China. From that point on, Taiwan was placed under US military protection.
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Offline Nash

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China ready to strike Taiwan, military on alert...
« Reply #68 on: March 14, 2005, 07:31:22 PM »
This isn't meant to be some kind of dig or anything (because I don't think either side would deny it)...

One thing that seems to be left out of the equation here is the fact that Bush doesn't seem to be saddled with a great deal of appreciation for the practicalities of a situation, opting instead for a more idealistic, bigger picture approach to things.

To me, as it stands now, the extent of the US's participation in any China/Taiwan conflict can't really be discussed without taking that into consideration. It's a wild card.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #69 on: March 14, 2005, 07:34:53 PM »
A wild card is usually a plus for the poker player who has it.
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Offline Nash

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« Reply #70 on: March 14, 2005, 07:45:53 PM »
Yup, sure.

I'm not assigning any value to the card... good or bad. Just saying that it's there. And it's a big, big there.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #71 on: March 14, 2005, 07:52:08 PM »
Here's another thing to consider: The Mutual Defense Treaty Treaty between the United States and the Republic of China expired Jan 1, 1980.
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Offline Seagoon

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« Reply #72 on: March 14, 2005, 08:54:59 PM »
Guys I hate to bring this up, but the fact is that the US military is presently overextended just covering Afghanistan, Iraq, and our security commitments to places like North Korea and the Balkans.

For the US to be able to engage China successfully it would require a build-up of the Armed forces to at least 1980s levels. 10 Active Duty Divisions is barely enough for a one theatre war - twice that number would be necessary to engage a superpower, and that would require that we cut/control the growth of bloated social programs (For instance, I worked at the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Education in the 1990s, you could entirely cut everything but the D.Ag. inspections and controls programs from the budget tomorrow and all you would see is improvement). But since that is extremely unlikely to happen...  

I know I'm not exactly an uninterested party here, but US troops and their families have been overextended and undersupported since the 90s.

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Offline greentail

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« Reply #73 on: March 14, 2005, 09:09:56 PM »
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Originally posted by NUKE
Well, we didn't go into Iraq to whipe it out. We are spending money in Iraq to avoid damage and build the country back up.

If we went to war with China, we would just destroy it.


Let's see here. We can't even control the road between Baghdad and its airport, and you think we can conquer China?

Are you on dope?

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #74 on: March 14, 2005, 09:45:00 PM »
Bush might be a wild card, but I doubt the US Congress would be.


Here's some polling info, this is the unfortunately the latest I could find.  If anyone can find something more recent, I would really appreciate it.


Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. March 15-19, 2000. N=1,184 adults nationwide. MoE 3.5:
 
...

As you may know, there have been renewed tensions about when and how to bring Taiwan back under Chinese control. If China were to use military force against Taiwan over this, should the United States use military force to defend Taiwan, or not?"
     
Should use force %31    
Should not %53    
Don't know/Refused %16

http://www.pollingreport.com/china.htm


NewsMax.com/Zogby Poll Question: "If attacked by another country, should the United States help defend militarily, even though it could cost American soldiers their lives, . . . ?"

Taiwan More Detailed Poll Results

Yes 31%

No 69%

http://www.newsmax.com/articles/?a=2000/3/1/211348