Author Topic: Peak Oil (Read 1312 times)

Lizking · « **Reply #60 on:** July 07, 2005, 11:11:06 PM »

I guess not. You could apply those business degrees to real life and get back to me in, say, 20 years, and we will discuss commodities as they are, not as they should be.

Nuke33 · « **Reply #61 on:** July 07, 2005, 11:19:34 PM »

See Rule #4

Dinger · « **Reply #62 on:** July 08, 2005, 12:21:44 AM »

He means: Guys with business degrees come cheap and nobody with any business experience trusts folks who rely on their MBAs.
Aristotle, for example, cites the case of two people: one a doctor who knows the rule: "light meat is healthy", but not the particular case: "chicken is light meat", and another a guy with experience who knows the particular: "chicken is healthy" but not the rule. You put them both in a room with a sick guy, which one is gonna be able to help, the doctor or the dude with experience?

Well, isn't the "Adjusted Price" in dollars based in large part on the price of oil to begin with? All that figure means is that the richer countries are richer now than in 81, and control more of the oil.

And what Liz is suggestin' -- and I"m a long-winded idjit -- is that the current price of oil ain't because we've reached "peak oil",,,

Well, Funked has a good point, part of the reason for the various world economies' dependence on oil is that we've been subsidizing it for a damn long time in converting our infrastructure to run on oil.

Folks, particularly in the US, have been fed the idea of inevitable progress for so long they forget that there's no logical necessity that civilization move forward. Take that poster child, the Roman empire: they did great and expanded and stuff, then they exhausted their natural resource (Spanish silver mines) that gave them dominance over their neighbors, and encountered massive environmental change (it got colder) that greatly reduced the number of people they could feed. As a result, the empire just kinda disintegrated.

I still wouldn't be investing in Airbus any time soon.

Nuke33 · « **Reply #63 on:** July 08, 2005, 07:06:18 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Dinger

And what Liz is suggestin' -- and I"m a long-winded idjit -- is that the current price of oil ain't because we've reached "peak oil",,,

Ok, so he he also saying the laws of supply and demand are non-existant when it comes to the price of oil? If he is, then what about after the peak? I just dont see how the price could be controled any other way, especially 'after' we peak out.

oboe · « **Reply #64 on:** July 08, 2005, 07:22:26 AM »

I'm not sure, but is Liz saying the price of oil is purely demand-driven, and not based on supply?

lazs2 · « **Reply #65 on:** July 08, 2005, 08:52:28 AM »

For about 30 grand or so extra right now... you can get a solar system of power for many luxury houses here that will give you about a $0 power bill... you use some in the winter but sell some back in the summer.

I still see fission as the next step in creating cheap electricity on the whole tho. Cheap electricity drasticly reduces our demand for fossil fuels.

lazs

Habu · « **Reply #66 on:** July 08, 2005, 09:05:28 AM »

The price of oil is not based simply on supply and demand (unless there suddenly is not enough to go around, then the price will spike due to the supply shortage, but only for a short time).

Oil is priced based on a whole bunch of inputs. What the Saudis are going to produce, what they tell the world they will produce and what they actually end up producing and what they can produce. Political events and world events (you can have an oversupply situation but if some wacko terrorist kills the King of Saudi Arabia or the leader of any other major producer watch what the price will do instantly. Even speechs from political figures like Bush or Greenspan can affect the price.

The economic indicators for the various industrialized nations affect the price. If the US is heading for a recession then the price of oil is not going to go up.

The strength of the US dollar. How long the price has been at its current level (if oil is at 60 dollars for a year or two don't expect it to go up). Expensive oil allows producers to develop less profitable supply and they will invest in exploration, new production facilities, and develop properties that were uneconomic at the old price. Also long term high prices will cause people to buy more fuel efficient cars, industry to switch to other energy sources and governments to fund energy saving measures and programs. The result is demand stops growing and will even decline even in a growing economy.

This only happens if the price stays high for a long enough time.

Finally if oil is too expensive you might get a US recession and then the world demand will plummet. Even markets like China will plummet as their economy is based on exports to the US and if that stops they will be in recession shortly after.

jEEZY · « **Reply #67 on:** July 08, 2005, 09:42:22 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Dinger
Take that poster child, the Roman empire: they did great and expanded and stuff, then they exhausted their natural resource (Spanish silver mines) that gave them dominance over their neighbors, and encountered massive environmental change (it got colder) that greatly reduced the number of people they could feed. As a result, the empire just kinda disintegrated.

A bit oversimplified, anachronistic and quite wrong. See Gibbon, Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire.

However, this thread is about some over caffinated under employed CA lawyer who is spewing a doomsday scenerio that our younger members have swallowed hook line and sinker. Let us recap:

1) Oil right now is a cheap abundant power source, even at $60

2) the price of oil has little to do with supply

3) basing doomsday predictions on faulty assumptions that one must project into an ever changing world is not reliable

4) some day oil will run out

5) nobody knows when #4 will occur

6) anybody who says they know when #4 will occur is lying, a fortiori, anybody who says they know what will happen, is lying. See Mel Gibson, Mad Max; and The Road Warrior.

If you really want to talk about doomsday, discuss the lack of refining capacity in this country.

stantond · « **Reply #68 on:** July 08, 2005, 11:54:52 AM »

What I have found particularly fascinating, is that solar cells are currently available which can be used as house singles. The multi use of solar cells makes them more cost effective. Currently, depending on electricity use, electric power can be stored during the day and used at night in alternative energy homes and boats. Of course, the ability to store electric energy in a cost effective way using better battery technology is critical for this to happen in general. In the US, air conditioning, appliances, and other modern conveniences would more than consume the power from rooftop solar cells, but there would be a reduction in overall load to the power grid. Most european appliances uses less than half the utilities of the US versions. Cheap energy and water allows making less expensive (but more wasteful) appliances. Also, a proper battery would enable electric cars to be practical. An electric car could also be refueled from home. Combining 'homemade' electricity with a greatly reduced need for oil because of electric cars could make many countries (particularly the US) much more energy (i.e. petroleum oil) independent.

While hydrogen may work as an alternative fuel for vehicles, there is an infrastructure problem and safety issues. Currently, chemical energy stored in petroleum fuel has a very high energy density, is stable, and can be used safely. As long as oil is cheap and electric cars are impractical, who would spend the extra money for solar cell house shingles? Not me.

Regards,

Malta

rshubert · « **Reply #69 on:** July 08, 2005, 12:31:49 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Nuke33
What is free and clean energy you speak of? If you're talking of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, etc.. Then those at this point are hardly clean.. They take massive ammounts of energy to construct, and the only form of construction we currently have is reliant on fossil fuels.. Seen those big diesel run cranes and earth movers? If there is not enough oil to facilitate their construction there will be no energy period..

Also hydrogen is hardly a good energy source.. It currently takes more energy to exctact hydrogen into its raw 'useable' form than it produces in return.. Why bother?

Hydrogen fuels would be portable, and that would justify their energy balance. Nuke, you're sounding a little strident, there. Calm, son, this is not---repeat NOT the end of the world as we know it.

Look at hydrogen FUEL CELL (be sure to be specific) technology. Yes, dependant on platinum. So is the catalytic converter in your car, by the way. Nobody predicts the end of the catalytic converter, do they? The technology is young, and expensive still. 15 years ago, I paid 3 grand for a decent personal computer. Now the equivalent box (and by equivalent I mean the "latest" technology) is less than half that price, not even accounting for inflation. Why? economy of scale in production. As production quantity goes up, unit cost goes down. So that million dollar hand made one off hydrogen fuel cell becomes cheaper. A lot cheaper.

There is very little industrial use for hydrogen gas at this point in time. If production were to go up (as it would if it became a major fuel source) then the unit cost of production would go down, and the current "pilot" processing plants would be replaced by more efficient large scale producers.

And on and on. What about natural gas? We're swimming in the stuff, you know. The bottleneck there is pipeline facilities--more "not in my backyard" thinking.

Dinger · « **Reply #70 on:** July 09, 2005, 01:58:09 AM »

Heh, I said poster child, and I ain't no Gibbon (Christianity? what a load of horsecrap).
However, one major part of the puzzle is the steep drop in agricultural surplus. Another is the disappearance of what was an abundant natural resource.
Yeah, oil is cheap now. And every other source of energy is not cheap. And when oil becomes not cheap, it will have a serious effect on the world. Again, all you have to do is look around and see how much of civilization is predicated on cheap oil. Cheap oil allows urban sprawl. cheap oil facilitates global market capitalism. cheap oil allows less than 2% of the population in the US to grow the food for the entire country and many other parts of the world.
Granted, I'm not going to argue along the lines of our friend the nutcase lawyer, who plays fast and loose with his data to paint the worst picture imaginable, point to post-peak oil prices, then arguing that anything remotely dependent on oil will invariiably shut down.
But energy costs are not simply abstract terms -- they are effects that permeate society: everything gets multiplied by energy costs. Increased energy costs mean that more people on this planet are going to be engaged in producing and distributing less energy.
There's no knowing what will happen. Hell, they may even get fusion to work supercheaply (doubt it though). On the other hand, right now could be remembered for the next 1000 years as "the good ol' days".