Yeah...
Okay let's handle this another way then..... If you were diving on on the HQ, and you say you were counting nearby hits? Then you're totally negating your drones. Drones try to match your heading and pitch and that's it... Drones ONLY will hit a target if you are level when you drop. Diving basically makes drones ack fodder, and their bombs are wasted.
Second, yes there is splash damage, but it's not the full force of the bombs. If you landed 14x1k eggs NEAR the HQ, that's not the same as landing them all ON the HQ. There's a major difference, bomb-wise. Splash does very little at times. Depends on the situation. It's a fraction of the total bomb. You can drop 4 separate 1k eggs around a tiger, and it will still be fine. But you drop 1 500lb directly on it, and it's toast.
So the fact that you wasted your drones by diving means you're down to 3 plane loads only. Then the fact that you weren't even dead-on with all your bombs means even less than that hit the HQ, say half total. So you only have about 21,000lbs of ord on target, and you need more than that.
Here's a tip. NEVER dive bomb. EVER. It screws up your aim so bad it's not worth it. Especially on HQ raids. Fly level and salvo. Turn around and repeat. That way at least your drones have a chance of hitting the target.
By the way, drones don't drop exactly where you do. They drop to each side and slightly behind you. They drop from their positions on your wing. So even when level some might miss the HQ (which is why I said that drones won't hit 100% of their bombs on the HQ in my previous post).