Cause of death and lifetime odds

[Maverick]

Originally posted by myelo
Heart disease, stroke, etc. are considered "natural causes".

Hardly anybody dies of "old age". The natural lifespan of humans is about 120 years. Most people get some fatal disease before then.

This post piqued my curiosity. Please define death by "old age".

Where did you get the stat that the human lifespan is 120 years, since it seems to me that anyone living past the century mark is rather rare and somewhat newsworthy.

[Gunslinger]

Here's some more:

Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does NOT read a newspaper regularly: 3 to 1

Odds that an American adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 3 to 2

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1

Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1

Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1

Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1

Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1

Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1

Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1

Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1

Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1

Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1

Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1

Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1

Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

Odds of winning the California lottery: 13,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1

Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.

Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820

Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380

Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421

Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524

Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319

Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035

Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000

Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377

Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000

Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000

Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Chance of developing schizophrenia: 1 in 00

Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3

Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26

Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10

[Swoop]

By 'eck, with odds like that it's a wonder any of us are still alive.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by Gunslinger
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

They give out maybe 100 Academy Awards every year.  The Medal of Honor has been given to a handful since Vietnam.

At least one of that pair of odds is incorrect.

There are 280 million or so Americans, only 1 president. 280,000,000 to one is more like it.

[Godzilla]

280 million to 1 isn't correct either. You'd have to figure the odds of dying before reaching 40, then subtract that number from the population at the very least.

[Simaril]

Originally posted by Godzilla
280 million to 1 isn't correct either. You'd have to figure the odds of dying before reaching 40, then subtract that number from the population at the very least.

But even that isnt correct, because we're looking at lifetime odds, not annual likelihood.

[AWMac]

Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.

Everybody on top of their blood pressure?

200/125 ?  

[myelo]

Mav,

At a certain age, all mammalian cells undergo an orderly shutdown of function that ends in death of the cell. This is called apoptosis and is an inherent feature coded in the cell’s genes. There are several theories as to how this all works, but the point is there is a predetermined maximum lifespan for cells so that at a certain time, even in the absence of any injury or disease, the cell is going to die – die of “old age.”

The average human lifespan varies a lot with things like socioeconomic conditions and health care. In ancient Rome it was about 25 years. Now in most developed countries it’s about 80. But it’s around 40 in some regions.

But the maximum lifespan – how long the very oldest person lives – has stayed the same throughout time and geography. It’s right about 120 years. A fair number of people live to be 100. Almost nobody lives past 120. So that seems to be the inherent natural lifespan of human beings.

That’s not to say we can’t possibly change this. If we can figure out how to alter the underlying mechanisms of aging, such as apoptosis, we could conceivably change the rate of aging.

For example, there is a gene in mice that controls apoptosis. Mice that have a certain mutation in this gene live much longer than normal.

But they also get more cancer than normal. This suggests that apoptosis and death itself may have evolved as a protective mechanism against cancer.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by myelo
This suggests that apoptosis and death itself may have evolved as a protective mechanism against cancer.

Predetermined suicide as a defense against cancer?

okay....

[mosgood]

Originally posted by myelo
Mav,

At a certain age, all mammalian cells undergo an orderly shutdown of function that ends in death of the cell. This is called apoptosis and is an inherent feature coded in the cell�s genes. There are several theories as to how this all works, but the point is there is a predetermined maximum lifespan for cells so that at a certain time, even in the absence of any injury or disease, the cell is going to die � die of �old age.�

I thought our cells regenerated and created new cells.  Does the function breakdown where new cells are not created when we get older or??

[myelo]

Some of our cells divide into new cells, but there are limits. Cut your skin and skin cells divide to fill in the cut. Cut off your hand, and that hand ain’t growing back, unless you’re a starfish.

But even cells that divide a lot still undergo apoptosis at a certain age.

[Gh0stFT]

Originally posted by Gunslinger
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

lol, ive got that card once!

I doubt the the value is correct, it depends on how often you play poker.
If you never play poker your chance decrease dramaticaly

[Maverick]

Myelo,

You still did not define death of "old age". You discussed cellular disfunction but not a specific cause of death that is "old age". Heart failure could very well be a specific cause of death in almost every case of a "natural death" as every dead person no longer has a heart beat.

Secondly the post I was referring to about the lifespan was the term you used. You did not state MAXIMUM life span but the term used was NATURAL lifespan. Given the use of the term "natural" that implies that it is the norm, hence natural, rather than the rather scarce exception it seems to be.

[Hangtime]

after reading through this my brain did that 'flash' thing.. and I was off on a different tangent.

In polite circles that would be a thread hijack... but i digress.

All the talk of dying of old age, impersonal statistics...

who in hell want's to die looking like a science project.. resperators, heart stimulators, blood machines...

I mean even gettin old is getting old... to livin things up they invented viagra. oh, whoopeee.. what a huge drag that turned out to be. Now you can re-discover what a lousy lay the wrinkled up old hag yer livin with was. Can't women ever let yah forget.. even that?

Afterwards, yah still got a 5 hour 56minute stiffe. Imagine sittin on the couch in yer robe with an iwo jima flagpole in yer lap, watching the demise of professional golf. Don't fall asleep if you have a cat.

Quit torturing us old people.. just give us one pill. If you take it, you go to sleep stoned and boozed, and yah just don't wake up.

(i'd slip it in the old ladies late night tea and claim I lost mine)

I now return the thread to it's original topic.