Author Topic: Frame 1 Results - Miracle of Dunkirk (Read 1899 times)

ghostdancer · « **Reply #30 on:** December 04, 2005, 06:48:07 PM »

First off can the Axis CiC send me his battle plans.

Skernsk has already sent me the orders he sent the LW side. There might be a possible type going on. The RAF objectives said 15 points for every PT that survived. If the LW said 10 points for every PT killed probably a typo creeped in and that 5 point difference does really effect people plans.

28 pts at 10 pts is 280
28 pts at 15 pts is 420

Also the RAF said we had to up 25 and could up to 35.

PT boats were specifically told they could not use any of there guns in RAF objectives. Meaning their only defense was to use evasive action, or scatter and hope you didn't find them all, or hop that the RAF fighters could beat the LW back.

I am reviewing all with Skernsk.

Why the LW didn't find the PTs, well I am not sure. Those involved email me personally so I can try to reconstruct what went on.

dgideon@dgideon.org

As for points, guys I have done analsysis of the raw data of the CM logs for a long time. I have done the raw analysis in the past for 68K0, Daddog and other admin CMs because I am familiar of how to get the data out and format it. It still takes me about 1 to 2 hours to pull it out, format it into Excel and then do analysis.

This was skernsk first attempt at doing this with the points. Things a bit skewed too him so he fell back on the way it was done before since what he got from the logs did not make sense based on actual battle results .. i.e. the RAF winning being up 120 points.

I will be helping him get the raw data in the next frames.

Also note he did not say he was giving the LW a major victory. He was just saying the LW took the frame.

Right now it looks like it was a draw. But either the LW or the RAF took the frame by about 20-25 points (a draw in my book).

If a typo did slip in (it happens and I have done it myself, as you all know) then that could explain why their is drastically different perspective between the LW and the RAF. We will look into that and get back to you.

If there was a typo probably what we will do is split the difference between 10 and 15 and say the PTs are worth 13 points each so 364points instead of 420 at 15 points each.

Meaning the Allied total should be 1074 and hte Axis should be 1105. A 31 point difference to the Axis. Again a draw although you can say the LW took it by a very few points.

Will get back to you on all of this.

Hornet33 · « **Reply #31 on:** December 04, 2005, 06:58:09 PM »

Let me see if I have this straight. You ordered 10 stukas to basically go get themselves killed. That was 150 points lost right off the bat. We lost by 120 points. That is what I ment when I said we GAVE the Allies the win. Those planes should have been escorted . I just can't agree with those kinds of tactics.

Whatever. I didn't write the orders so who am I to complain right?? The main thing thats going on with this thread is the total disregard of the rules and switching the outcome based on 1 persons opinion.

ghostdancer · « **Reply #32 on:** December 04, 2005, 07:11:19 PM »

No what is going on is that skernsk wrote the event. He watched the event and got data and input that contradict what the data he was getting from his attempt to pull information out of the raw logs.

Based on what he observed and other CMs observed it indicated an Axis victory. His imperfect parsing of the raw logs said the Allies won by 120.

His instincts were actually right I have done an analysis of the logs and the RAF by no means scored 120 more points than the LW. Based on the scoring information given to the RAF they took the frame by 25 points.

Now I have just got the axis objective orders and there is indeed a type in them.

The LW were told the PTs were worth 10 points, the RAF were told the PTs were worth 15 points.

So skernsk instincts were correct based on the info given to the LW. The LW did take the frame but only be the skin of there teeth and statistically it really is a draw. The point difference (we are going to split the points and say they are 13 points to be fair to both sides since can't go back and correct the typo after the battle is fought, etc.) is really very, very, very minor.

Now while his instincts were correct what he did wrong was he wanted to get the results out before monday. He should have done some in depth analysis or asked others to review the information to bear out whether his gut instincts were correct or not since in the past we didn't rely as much on the raw parser logs.

My mistake was not automatically saying run past your analysis past me first so I can offer a second peer review of them. If I had I would have caught the discrepancies and help him get to actual results with the hard data to support them.

So to an extent this is my fault for not following up with a new CM. His fault is being new at doing FSO based on the raw CM logs. Writing, scoring and administring an FSO is a very time consuming task. As I said it takes me about 2 hours to go through the logs, double check, do the anaylsis and figure out what really happened and what the results were. Ad to this writing up the objectives, providing maps, etc. and actually each FSO frame eats up easily 8 hours for a CM.

So chalk all this angst down to a new initiates having to deal with some major raw data entry analysis and might fault of not double checking like I have done with other new CMs.

doobs · « **Reply #33 on:** December 04, 2005, 07:36:20 PM »

This gonin to be my second shot at CIC for the FSO, axis this time.
And again there is a chitstorm(looks up "why me")

anyhooo don't worry about the PT's in frame 2. Just got hold of Field Marshall Flipper, he and his band of trained porpoises will enter the Channel from the North and attach explosives to there hulls. And he was more than happy to do this, as he has a beef with the allies killin family members in Tuna nets.

So sshhhhhh don't let the CM's or the allied know

ghostdancer · « **Reply #34 on:** December 04, 2005, 08:01:43 PM »

Aha, seems I got an intelligence report here (as the Allied CiC for frame 2) about Luftwobbie dolphins.

Hmm, we better counter them with our trained scottish seals and who have been trained to balance balls filled with Nitro on their noses to flip at those Teutonic purpoises!

doobs · « **Reply #35 on:** December 04, 2005, 08:49:55 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by ghostdancer
Aha, seems I got an intelligence report here (as the Allied CiC for frame 2) about Luftwobbie dolphins.

Hmm, we better counter them with our trained scottish seals and who have been trained to balance balls filled with Nitro on their noses to flip at those Teutonic purpoises!

HAH...... your first mistake and last..... balls of nitro only work on surface,
ya should of armed the C4 Cod.....buhhahahah victory is ours

Sea Marshall Flipper is going NOS nape of sea

navajoboy · « **Reply #36 on:** December 04, 2005, 11:06:23 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Hornet33
Let me see if I have this straight. You ordered 10 stukas to basically go get themselves killed. That was 150 points lost right off the bat. We lost by 120 points. That is what I ment when I said we GAVE the Allies the win. Those planes should have been escorted . I just can't agree with those kinds of tactics.

Whatever. I didn't write the orders so who am I to complain right?? The main thing thats going on with this thread is the total disregard of the rules and switching the outcome based on 1 persons opinion.

look at the orders.. the 10 stukas were escorted... i dont go giving away lambs without a fight... the stukas were suppose to hit the town first.. if they werent able too they were suppose to draw down the cap. lead them away from the target making it easier for the main forces to hit the targets... as i can tell from the logs some stukas hit the town... i wouldnt mind losing 100 points to get 300 points.... i know when risk should be taken... if you feel you can do better. by all means.. do better.. otherwise..... hmm nevermind..

~~navajo24~~

daddog · « **Reply #37 on:** December 04, 2005, 11:27:56 PM »

Quote

So to an extent this is my fault for not following up with a new CM. His fault is being new at doing FSO based on the raw CM logs.

Actually is it my fault for letting Ghostdancer and Skernsk on the Squad Ops team while I tried to retire.

Skernsk and I talked at length on the phone about this, (after his post). LOL As Ghostdancer pointed out Skernsk was a CM a few years ago. At that time it would be far to say that the TOD, (now Squad Operations) was more “objective based”. Consequently his slant favors the objective view.

Personally when I have scored Squad Ops over the years if the points were within or close to 100 points I called it a draw. If you are one to score by points then you could call it a draw or marginal Allied win. If you are to base a win or loss by objectives then you could call it an Axis victory. Knowing the competitive spirits we have in here this thread does not surprise me, and I saw it coming a mile off. Even told skernsk that.

I have always used points because you can’t argue with points. Everything has a value, aircraft, ground vehicles, boats, and field objects if they are assigned targets. Also objectives have a base value usually 100 to 300 points depending on what it is. You simply add them up and post the score. The one thing the Admin CM’s for Squad Ops do differently are how to score objectives. Some (like myself) like to keep things simple and assign a basic point value. If 50% of the target was destroyed then each side gets 50% of the value. Others prefer to count every object for X amount of points. To each his own.

The bottom line is don’t let posted results be they objective or subjective taint how much fun you had. If you did not have fun in the first place then I can’t do much about that except to broadcast the location of Skernsk in Frame 2 so everyone can kill him.

Scotlvr · « **Reply #38 on:** December 05, 2005, 02:38:08 AM »

First let me say that was 1 NASTY Furball at 48!!! I was trying to get CAf back up to a 'Safe" Alt Whenwe ran smack dab into the middle of the of the 87's and their escort. Everything else is a blur.
As for the PT boat thing I expected to run smack dab into the middle of them enrte to 48, but this never happened. I then expected them to be at 106 waiting for them there. Nope.
Well with the score's this close look's like Frame 3 could be the ball buster!
Yep..a good bottle of Scotch is on order for that night!

68Hall · « **Reply #39 on:** December 05, 2005, 10:55:16 AM »

First of all, let me apologize to the Allies for not being able to be present as the CIC. I worked my tail off on those orders and the planning, and I wanted very much to be there for the victory. Unfortunately an RL emergency came up out of the state and I had to go.
As for how things worked out. We were given our orders. Based on the numbers presented, we knew that all we had to do was land as many pt's as possible. We had planned for between 28 and 32. Apperently we got all 28. to the ~Fate~ and the 68th, and i believe the 325th for volunteering to play sitting ducks (Volunteered is what the FATE did!) Basically wasting the first 20 minutes of the frame without any option to return fire. Thank you to you all. Well done. (apparently there was a typo. We had 15pts per pt listed in ours) As such, I intentionally put my maximum possible numbers in PT's taking the gamble that we would get there before you got through our fighter screen. If we did, all we had to do is tie in air to air to win. 28X 15=420pts. 300+100 for the town and TASK FORCE = 400. (add 15 more because I would have ALSO landed a pt boat)

That said, I was also ORDERED to provide fighter cover for both the task force, in 12,9 sector AND cap for the dinky town. As such I put 25+ fighters over the task force, no more than 16 each over the pts and the town respectively.
(I understand the point typo) Still, you chose to commit your forces, in larger numbers to the town and task force, just as I expected. You STILL would be throwing 280 points (as opposed to 420 based on typo) in the trash for not ignoring the town and attacking the Task FORCE and pt's equally. Had you chosen to do that, we COULD NOT HAVE WON. PERIOD. You would have drastically outnumbered the PT fighter screen. I put my very best fighter squadrons there(statistically) but there were no more than 15 or 20. They were told to do whatever it took to save the PT's. No matter what, they weren't leaving the evac armada.
At the same time, I knew how important the TASK GROUP was. I put my largest and best Marine Squadron over the fleet. VMF101. You had an unwinnable task, and apparently did a great job. The fleet was never saveable, but killing the most aircraft possible was your only real mission.
As for the town, and had I been able to command Friday evening, I would have vectored EVERY SINGLE SECOND LIFE PT PILOT to defend the fleet! All of em. I would have given you the town on a platter. I don't know what actually happened, but my orders were to split the pt squads in half between the two Axis objectives. The entire 68th had originally been ordered to cap A48 town trather than defend the fleet. They would have been sent to the fleet. The AK's were to defend the fleet in support of the Nightmares. I don't know what actually happened, but had we done it that way, it wouldn't even have been close.

But alas, I couldn't be there so it's hindsight.
In the end, it sounds as if everyone had a great time. Fighting low and furious is great. It's less great when the entire RAF is shootin .303 rounds against cannons, but we aren't complaining seeing as we killed so many cannon toting NAZI's in our inferior hardware. At the end of the day, we did better with less.

As for the typo, EVEN with the typo, all you Axis guys had to do is kill the PT's and either take down the town, or the CV group, but not both,and you WIN! You would have had 380 in the bag, or you would have had 580 in the bag, depending on your choices. But the one choice you HAD TO MAKE, was to come after my defenseless PT boats. You didn't and it cost you the frame. (BTW I begged skernsk to let me arm my pt boats and he said no.)

So, finaly, to denie the Allies of a well planned, and obviously very well fought victory, after the fact, is wrong. The Axis, regardless of a 5 point typo, had EVERY opportunity to kill us in the air and ESPECIALLY the water, and they chose not too. That was a failure of strategic planning. Nothing more. It takes 18:42 minutes to get a PT from the spawn points to the port IF the pilots are NOT half in the bag drunk...(yeah right on a Friday night ) That's almost half the Allied force unable to up a fighter for almost 20 minutes! What if they were already over the task force and town? thats 28 MORE pilots!

I went to the map as often as possible and flew all of the routes, timed all of the trips, and calculated all of the fuel, leading up to creating my orders. We SHOULD have won, based on the plan. I submit that the Allies worked within the rules given and accomplished its mission. The score says the Allies won...because they DID!

skernsk
Axis
Allies

edit BTW just read the logs...Axis 120 pilots, Allies 91. With this score there should be no debate that the allies won!

Drano · « **Reply #40 on:** December 05, 2005, 11:26:58 AM »

All came down to us not finding the PT boats. My squad was tasked with their destruction but we never saw 'em even after overflying both spawn points and then staking out the approaches to the ports. We took an almost direct route there too. Split up and looked all over. Nothing.

My guys got mixed up with some hurris at one point. JJ and I avoided the fight and continued to look for them. No dice. Upon further review JJ found em in his film. "Missed it by that much" as our old friend Maxwell Smart would say. Allies for doing a great job of completing one of your missions 100%. Can't beat that with a stick.

Heck I had a good time. Was just glad I was able to spend the whole frame without a disco. That hasn't happened in a while.

Drano

ghostdancer · « **Reply #41 on:** December 05, 2005, 11:48:25 AM »

Ahem, guys step back a bit. What skernsk originally said was Axis Victory. He did not say major, minor, inconsequential, or sheep running in the streets victory.

Going by the original point system and the raw logs the RAF scored 25 more points than the LW.

Now there is a discrepancy where the RAF were told 15 points per PT and the LW 10 PTs per PT.

If you go with the PT system the LW was told (10 PTs) then the LW took the frame by 115 points.

This is where the issue really resolves. Not whether the battle plan of the LW covered or adequately tasked to hit the PTs are not. They did from what I have been told but they also assumed based on information provided to them that the PTs were not of the same value as say the Royal Navy fleet but instead were somewhere in importance between the fleet and town.

Their plans were based on that information.

The RAF were provided with information that basically pointed to the fact that the PTs were of a greater importance than the Royal Navy Fleet and the town combined. They built their plans accordingly.

Both were good plans based on strategic information provided and interpretation of this information.

Putting aside the disconnect of the point value of hte PTs we all have to realize that a battle plan is created but no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. A battle changes, things happen outside of people's control, did the LW mean to not find the PTs? No they did not .. but a battle is a wild unpredictable thing and those assigned to find and kill the PTs just missed them. It happens.

Skernsk and I will hammer out how to handle the PT points issue.

The battle was well fought by both sides and any of the three points schemes I have indicated used with the raw logs show that it was tie or damn close to a tie.

navajoboy · « **Reply #42 on:** December 05, 2005, 11:57:56 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by 68Hall
First of all, let me apologize to the Allies for not being able to be present as the CIC. I worked my tail off on those orders and the planning, and I wanted very much to be there for the victory. Unfortunately an RL emergency came up out of the state and I had to go.
As for how things worked out. We were given our orders. Based on the numbers presented, we knew that all we had to do was land as many pt's as possible. We had planned for between 28 and 32. Apperently we got all 28. to the ~Fate~ and the 68th, and i believe the 325th for volunteering to play sitting ducks (Volunteered is what the FATE did!) Basically wasting the first 20 minutes of the frame without any option to return fire. Thank you to you all. Well done. (apparently there was a typo. We had 15pts per pt listed in ours) As such, I intentionally put my maximum possible numbers in PT's taking the gamble that we would get there before you got through our fighter screen. If we did, all we had to do is tie in air to air to win. 28X 15=420pts. 300+100 for the town and TASK FORCE = 400. (add 15 more because I would have ALSO landed a pt boat)

That said, I was also ORDERED to provide fighter cover for both the task force, in 12,9 sector AND cap for the dinky town. As such I put 25+ fighters over the task force, no more than 16 each over the pts and the town respectively.
(I understand the point typo) Still, you chose to commit your forces, in larger numbers to the town and task force, just as I expected. You STILL would be throwing 280 points (as opposed to 420 based on typo) in the trash for not ignoring the town and attacking the Task FORCE and pt's equally. Had you chosen to do that, we COULD NOT HAVE WON. PERIOD. You would have drastically outnumbered the PT fighter screen. I put my very best fighter squadrons there(statistically) but there were no more than 15 or 20. They were told to do whatever it took to save the PT's. No matter what, they weren't leaving the evac armada.
At the same time, I knew how important the TASK GROUP was. I put my largest and best Marine Squadron over the fleet. VMF101. You had an unwinnable task, and apparently did a great job. The fleet was never saveable, but killing the most aircraft possible was your only real mission.
As for the town, and had I been able to command Friday evening, I would have vectored EVERY SINGLE SECOND LIFE PT PILOT to defend the fleet! All of em. I would have given you the town on a platter. I don't know what actually happened, but my orders were to split the pt squads in half between the two Axis objectives. The entire 68th had originally been ordered to cap A48 town trather than defend the fleet. They would have been sent to the fleet. The AK's were to defend the fleet in support of the Nightmares. I don't know what actually happened, but had we done it that way, it wouldn't even have been close.

But alas, I couldn't be there so it's hindsight.
In the end, it sounds as if everyone had a great time. Fighting low and furious is great. It's less great when the entire RAF is shootin .303 rounds against cannons, but we aren't complaining seeing as we killed so many cannon toting NAZI's in our inferior hardware. At the end of the day, we did better with less.

As for the typo, EVEN with the typo, all you Axis guys had to do is kill the PT's and either take down the town, or the CV group, but not both,and you WIN! You would have had 380 in the bag, or you would have had 580 in the bag, depending on your choices. But the one choice you HAD TO MAKE, was to come after my defenseless PT boats. You didn't and it cost you the frame. (BTW I begged skernsk to let me arm my pt boats and he said no.)

So, finaly, to denie the Allies of a well planned, and obviously very well fought victory, after the fact, is wrong. The Axis, regardless of a 5 point typo, had EVERY opportunity to kill us in the air and ESPECIALLY the water, and they chose not too. That was a failure of strategic planning. Nothing more. It takes 18:42 minutes to get a PT from the spawn points to the port IF the pilots are NOT half in the bag drunk...(yeah right on a Friday night ) That's almost half the Allied force unable to up a fighter for almost 20 minutes! What if they were already over the task force and town? thats 28 MORE pilots!

I went to the map as often as possible and flew all of the routes, timed all of the trips, and calculated all of the fuel, leading up to creating my orders. We SHOULD have won, based on the plan. I submit that the Allies worked within the rules given and accomplished its mission. The score says the Allies won...because they DID!

skernsk
Axis
Allies

edit BTW just read the logs...Axis 120 pilots, Allies 91. With this score there should be no debate that the allies won!

very interesting.. considering i did commit 3 squads to do a bee line straight for the pt spawn pts and to 106. i even had my squad going wep looking for the pt boats. they said they couldnt find anything all the way to england. their mission for operation toothless anchor (OP TA) was to find the pt boats and drag the fight to england. uknighted was in 109s going NOE to find the boats.. report their location and if their was fighter cover.. to take the fight to england if possible.. a group of 110s and another group of 109s should have taken the boats out but...........

BUT. the boats couldnt be found. i dont know why.. i'm requesting film from my squad but i believe no one filmed... ..

i have a feeling that the 20 mins it took the pts to get across the channel was too short... i hope im wrong.. but please someone tell me that we just couldnt see them.. tell me that the planes flew to high... or something. i dont want to believe that the axis didnt have enough time to find the pt boats..

edit: active bases... i believe that is another factor to consider.. maybe the active base list was wrong for me.. i had the OP TA leave a field that was to far..?? im going to go find my active base list again.. and see..
navajo24

68Hall · « **Reply #43 on:** December 05, 2005, 12:11:22 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Drano
All came down to us not finding the PT boats. My squad was tasked with their destruction but we never saw 'em even after overflying both spawn points and then staking out the approaches to the ports. We took an almost direct route there too. Split up and looked all over. Nothing.

My guys got mixed up with some hurris at one point. JJ and I avoided the fight and continued to look for them. No dice. Upon further review JJ found em in his film. "Missed it by that much" as our old friend Maxwell Smart would say. Allies for doing a great job of completing one of your missions 100%. Can't beat that with a stick.

Heck I had a good time. Was just glad I was able to spend the whole frame without a disco. That hasn't happened in a while.

Drano

DRANO says the film showed them. They were intentionally split into two groups.

Also I ran the PT spawns three times each. The fastest crossing time I got was literally 18:42. I'm not sure if A60 would have gotten you there fast enough or not? I do think A45would. That said, the town wasn't allowed to be hit until T+20 minutes, and it apparently was. Is it possible some of your squads delayed themselves en route?

navajoboy · « **Reply #44 on:** December 05, 2005, 12:23:15 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by 68Hall
DRANO says the film showed them. They were intentionally split into two groups.

Also I ran the PT spawns three times each. The fastest crossing time I got was literally 18:42. I'm not sure if A60 would have gotten you there fast enough or not? I do think A45would. That said, the town wasn't allowed to be hit until T+20 minutes, and it apparently was. Is it possible some of your squads delayed themselves en route?

ok here are mine orders..
http://www.uknightedstates.net/uknighted/uploads/Axis%20Command%20Orders%20for%20frame1%20112905.doc

here is the information sent to me ..
http://www.uknightedstates.net/uknighted/uploads/Frame1Ordersluft.doc

edit: here is the map i based my active bases on ..
http://www.uknightedstates.net/uknighted/uploads/map.jpg