It's not unlikely that the USA will invade Iran at some point in the next 5 years. Whether it will because of Iran's perceived nuclear capability, or whether there is some other ulterior motive remains to be seen.
The USA is facing an energy crisis, as those people living in California know only too well. The supply of non-OPEC oil for electricity generation is in decline, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) now finding favour as the fuel for electrical power plants. Since 1999 in the USA alone, an additional 220,000 megawatts of gas fired power capacity has been built, and will meet approximately 30% of US demand for electrical power. US demand for natural gas is expected to rise by another 50% in the next 15 years!
But there's a problem. Only about 2% of the world's stock of natural gas can be found in North America. Mexico is lending the USA a helping hand, having built a gas fired power plant near Mexicali, just three miles south of the US border. But no way was the prime purpose of that facility to provide power to Mexico. For one thing, Mexicans could not afford the infrastructure cost. And they wouldn't need the amount of power it generates. No, the power being produced by that plant is routed to Arizona and southern California via the Southwest Powerlink.
Oil is becoming too expensive. LNG might provide the breathing space we need. The problem for the USA is that much of the world's supply of gas is located in countries not sympathetic with American interests. More than HALF the world's gas reserves are to be found in two countries: Russia and................ Iran.
Just this week, Russia has been persuaded to backpedal on its stance of having turned off the gas supply to Europe, which runs through a pipeline passing through Ukraine, a move designed to penalise Ukraine for failing to comply with a Russian initiative to quadruple the price of gas. Under western pressure, Russia has backed down. Clearly, the Russians are going to be easier to deal with than certain hostile regimes.
Which brings us to Iran, a country with a very poor record history of diplomatic relations with the US. Would the USA invade Iran to safeguard a supply of natural gas? Well, America won't admit to it, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Just as the "war on terror" afforded America an excuse to invade Iraq on a pretext which was shown not to exist, Iran's perceived nuclear capability might serve as the perfect smokescreen and provide a justification to invade Iran, while the real reason for invasion might be something different.
Sorry to appear cynical, but after the Bush/Blair snowjob over Iraq, I don't see why the reason(s) given to invade Iran will be any less dishonest.
