Author Topic: Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war  (Read 4397 times)

Offline Ripsnort

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« on: April 26, 2001, 09:37:00 AM »
In my opinion.

 
Quote
BEIJING –– A "strongly indignant" China on Thursday
               accused President Bush of further damaging already
               strained ties with his blunt warnings about America's
               will to defend Taiwan.

               "There is only one China in the world. Taiwan is part of
               China. It is not a protectorate of any foreign country,"
               Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said at a
               news conference.

               "The Chinese government and people are strongly
               indignant and opposed" to Bush's comments, Zhang said.

               Zhang noted that Bush's "mistaken remarks" came on the
               heels of an American offer Tuesday of arms to Taiwan,
               which China strongly opposes.

               "This shows that it has drifted further on a dangerous
               road," Zhang said, referring to the United States.

               Taiwan remained generally low-key in the wake of the
               favorable developments, although its Foreign Ministry
               affirmed U.S. efforts to safeguard regional stability and
               said "we must build up our own defenses."

               In strong remarks aimed at Beijing, Bush told The
               Associated Press on Wednesday that U.S. military force
               is "certainly an option" if China acts on long-standing
               threats and strikes Taiwan. The two sides split amid
               civil war in 1949, and China doesn't rule out using force
               to assert control over the island it claims as a
               breakaway province.

               Bush issued a bolder warning in an earlier TV interview
               with ABC's "Good Morning America," saying America
               has an obligation to defend Taiwan if China attacks.

               The president's remarks ventured far beyond past U.S.
               policy, which was strategically vague and avoided
               specifically describing what America would do if China
               invaded Taiwan. U.S. policy-makers have only warned
               that such a move would be of "grave concern" to
               Washington.

               The goal of U.S. policy has been to keep Taiwan from
               provoking China by declaring independence, and to
               keep China worried about the possibility of American
               forces defending the island from Chinese attack.

               Zhang said Bush's comments violated China-U.S.
               communiques in which Washington acknowledged
               Beijing's claim to Taiwan. She said his comments
               would inflame China-Taiwan tensions "and will create
               further damage for China-U.S. relations."

               Washington must "correct its mistakes and stop
               interfering in China's internal affairs with the question of
               Taiwan," she said. "We are deeply concerned."

               In Taiwan, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Catherine
               Chang read a brief statement over the phone and would
               not respond to questions.

               "We affirm the United States' effort and determination to
               safeguard the security across the Taiwan Strait and in
               the Asian Pacific region. But we Taiwanese must
               understand that to enhance our security, we must build
               up our own defenses," the statement said.

               Bush's remarks made the front-pages of Taiwan's
               leading papers and were broadcast at the top of
               television newscasts.

               "Bush: If communist China attacks Taiwan, the US won't
               rule out getting involved," said the Chinese-language
               China Times, a Taiwanese daily.

               In Tokyo, Japan's defense chief, Toshitsugu Saito, said
               of Bush's comments: "It shows strong commitment to
               defend Taiwan."

               Australian Prime Minister John Howard urged calm and
               restraint.

               "We don't want to see any aggression by China against
               Taiwan," Howard said. "We don't want to see any
               wider tension escalate between the United States and
               China."

               Bush's comments and his arms offer to Taiwan added to
               tensions sparked by an April 1 collision of a U.S. spy
               plane and a Chinese fighter jet. The Chinese pilot is
               believed dead, and China detained the U.S. plane's 24
               crew members for 11 days after they made an
               emergency landing on southern Hainan Island. China is
               still holding their plane.

               Last week, Washington also angered China by
               approving a visa for former Taiwanese President Lee
               Teng-hui, who is despised by Beijing as a barrier to
               Taiwan's unification with the mainland.

               Washington said its offer to sell Taiwan destroyers,
               submarines, anti-sub planes and other advanced
               weapons was necessary to ensure that the island could
               meet the rising military threat from China.

               China accuses the United States of violating a 1982 joint
               communique under which Washington pledged to
               gradually reduce the numbers and quality of weapons it
               sells to Taiwan.

               Beiijing has reminded Washington to adhere to its
               commitment not to have official relations with Taiwan
               and not to challenge Beijing's claim that the island
               belongs to China.

               "The unbridled sales of weapons will not bring security,
               and relying on foreign powers will not thwart China's
               reunification," the Chinese Communist Party's main
               newspaper, People's Daily, said in an editorial.

               Taiwan must concede it is part of China and take "quick
               steps to ease and improve relations," the paper said.

Within 5 years would be my timeline.  China attacks Taiwan, US reacts, conventional war for about 6 months, escalating into nuclear war.

Offline Mighty1

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2001, 09:42:00 AM »
Not likely.

What would China gain by drawing the US into war?

If we already do so much business with them how can they or we sever those ties?
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Notice I never said a better man.

Sandman_SBM

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2001, 09:49:00 AM »
 
Quote
 George Bush was thrilled at finally being able to sleep in the White House, but something very strange happened. On the first night he was awakened by George Washington's ghost. Welcoming the opportunity to communicate with the father of our country, Bush asked, "President Washington, what is the best thing I can do to help the nation?"

  "Set an honest and honorable example, just as I did," Washington said.

  Later that night, the ghost of Thomas Jefferson appeared in the bedroom, and Bush asked him the same question.

  "Cut taxes and reduce the size of government," Jefferson said.

  Still later, the ghost of Abraham Lincoln appeared and Bush asked once again, "Abe, please tell me, what is the best thing I can do to help the nation?"

  Lincoln replied, "Go see a play."


Offline Ripsnort

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2001, 09:49:00 AM »
China's manifest is world domination.  Don't let anyone else fool you into believing anything else.  If you knock the big guy off the block, or even have the gonads to attempt to, you're looked up to by the rest of the guys on the block.  Sounds kinda paranoid don't it?  Lets talk in about 4 years and see how close to reality this 'paranoid' statement is.

Sturm

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2001, 09:53:00 AM »
Rip I posted about 7 weeks or so ago before the downing of wrong way that war would be with china in 5 years, 10 at the most.  I guess we will have to kick their prettythanges again like we did in Korea.  This will be a naval/air war for sure.  TO be honest I would not doubt China will do something in the next couple weeks.  

Offline Toad

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2001, 09:54:00 AM »
I'll repost this from the other Taiwan thread. IMO, it's a good analysis of where we're presently going with the defense budget.

"If anyone has a subscription to Wall Street Journal Online, could you post the article called "the fire next time" from yesterday's (4/24) editorial page?"

Given Bush's statement on Taiwan, I think we'd better rearrange defense spending radically.

I'm not sure I totally agree with this policy. I think there would be other methods to accomplish deterrence that would be somewhat less of a risk. Given our force posture in the Pacific, it seems our support would be primarily in the form of a carrier group(s). What a rich target for making a statement; one which the Chinese might feel was worth the use of tac nuke to destroy, particularly in the open ocean where theoretical collateral damage would be limited/minimal.

This could get ugly real fast and I think we need to be extremely careful.
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Offline texace

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2001, 10:16:00 AM »
I have no doubt that China will try something, but if we sever ties with them, thier economy will collapse. They depend on our money and our goods to keep their economy at a reasonable level. We cut that off, they wouldn't be able to support a long war. They'd eventually give up due to money problems. But if it does become a nuclear war, then I'm glad I lived a good life.

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[This message has been edited by texace (edited 04-26-2001).]

Offline Ripsnort

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2001, 10:21:00 AM »
Texace, we both lose economically, we would suffer as much as China in that aspect.

Sturm, I do believe China kick our bellybutton in Korea, after all, we went up to the Yalla (sp)river, they subsequently kicked our bellybutton back down south.

Sturm

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2001, 10:38:00 AM »
Rip look at the numbers.  The chinese could not stop us back then, we were on a roll and who stopped us?  Wasn't the Chinese but someone in the thing called the oval office.  As far as economically hurting us, well it might but it would hurt china more so then us.  We have the ability to supplement whatever we got from them.  They on the other hand do not.    

Offline Thud

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2001, 10:45:00 AM »
Nothing will happen at all, remember the stalemate 4 years ago. China then held amphibious exercises in the Taiwan strait and there were lots and lotsa threats from china towards US and vice versa (CV TF's off the coast etc.) Eventually everything settled down, just as it did with wrong way and any incidents in the future.......

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Offline Ripsnort

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2001, 10:47:00 AM »
When we arrived at the Yala river, we met over 1 million Chinese.  Remember Chosen Reservoir?...the Chinese kicked our ass.

Yes, the Oval office did hesitate from escalation, but at that point, the only escalation was of one to nuclear exchange.

Offline Kirin

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2001, 10:54:00 AM »
Errr, Rip, isn't world domination the US manifest?  
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Offline jihad

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2001, 10:58:00 AM »
Send Taiwan some chogs!  

Seriously though - WTF would be the point in fighting China over Taiwan?

So we can have cheaply made/priced consumer items?

Doesn't sound like a good enough reason to kill another generation of Americas youth to me - let em have the fediddleing rock.

Sturm

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2001, 10:59:00 AM »
Rip, Chosin Reservoir is widely known and from my memory it wasn't that many but what had happened was 12,000 marines and Republic of Korea soldiers being encircled and attacked by 60,000 chinese.    

Offline Saintaw

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Its only a matter of time before the US/Chino war
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2001, 11:00:00 AM »
Yikes, Rip a scary !
If you do, please keep both your Nukes in your respective pockets  

I read yeasterday that China has some 40+ "Modified" Kilo class Subs (Diesel, but still deadly attack subs)

So long for the saying "they don't have a Navy..."

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