Author Topic: Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?  (Read 18607 times)

Offline beet1e

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #210 on: March 28, 2006, 10:42:37 AM »
Hi Lazs!

I’ve been thinking about this, and NattyIced is right. There isn’t a lot we can do – or else there’s too much for us to do, whichever way you look at it.

Lazs, you need to understand the scale of the problem, and get a sense of proportion. Every year, six billion tonnes of man-made carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. The USA is directly responsible for 25% of that. Britain is responsible for 2%. Therefore, given that the UK population is ~58m, I am responsible for 0.0000000344% of the world total. But remember, a lot of energy is consumed for public buildings and infrastructure, and what can be directly ascribed to me in terms of gas used for heating, electricity, and diesel fuel for my car is probably more like 0.00000002% of the world total. So as you can see, changing my habits or lifestyle will make bugger all difference to the dilemma facing the world. Even if my entire town got wiped off the map, the CO2 reduction world-wide would amount to only 0.000128%. So the fatuous suggestions about cancelling a week long boat trip, or maybe turning down the gas fire or lowering the thermostat, are just that – fatuous. I should also remind you that I do not charter my own Airbus 340 when I go on a trip, and that the flights I take would be running anyway – with me or without me. Same goes for you – go on with your 8mpg hot-rodding. The CO2 reduction were you to stop would register as a blippette on the world chart.

To answer you question about where do we go from here…

Our economies are based on the burning of fossil fuels. That will probably be the case for the rest of my life and yours, because even though the oil may run out in 20-30 years, there will be a transition period when liquefied natural gas (LNG) will become a primary source of fuel. The largest stocks of LNG are to be found in Russia, Iran and Qatar. But this will last only about 20 years, and I’m not sure that even these estimates take into account the huge increase in demand for oil expected to be made by China. If this increase in demand materialises, oil costs are going to rise by huge margins – far more than the increases in the post Katrina period…

…at which point the public will be up in arms and you’ll be able to buy a 12mpg Ford Excursion for $1000 - $100 for the vehicle itself, and $900 for the fuel inside the tank. LOL. When oil becomes so expensive that we can’t afford it, it will become viable to develop alternative energy sources. There’s talk about a revival of nuclear energy. I know there are issues with nuclear waste, but these pale into insignificance compared with the fate which awaits the earth if we were to go on burning fossil fuels for the next 100 years.

As I have said before, there is one thing and one thing only that will change our demand for oil, and make us look for other energy technologies: Cost – which is itself a factor in the supply/demand equation.

Offline Rolex

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #211 on: March 28, 2006, 11:12:57 AM »
Sure lazs, but first, can you answer some questions for me?

At what age did you become an anarchist? Was there any influence from a person or group, or did it come from reading? Did you start as a libertarian?

I'm curious, really. I've never met an anarchist.

Offline Holden McGroin

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #212 on: March 28, 2006, 11:14:32 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by beet1e
So as you can see, changing my habits or lifestyle will make bugger all difference to the dilemma facing the world


If everyone thought that, we wouldn't make any progress at all.


Wait... everyone does think that.
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Offline lazs2

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« Reply #213 on: March 28, 2006, 02:47:43 PM »
rolex... I don't know what my political views have to do with the subject here but....

I am not sure that I am a true anarchist or libertarian or conservative... I take what I want from each.   I do know that I find myself much more often in agreement with any of those three on any subject than I do with commies or socialists or even liberals.

Now.... what exactly are those things you think we ought to be doing to save the planet....

beet and natty say...  it's all over but the crying....  pretty much that... we shouldn't be making fun of the end of times guys and .... maybe... maybe those few who are running up debt and such are doing the right thing....  Why bother if we are all gonna die in 10 years or so anyway right?

lazs

Offline Toad

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #214 on: March 28, 2006, 02:55:16 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
If everyone thought that, we wouldn't make any progress at all.


Wait... everyone does think that.


If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!


Offline Angus

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #216 on: March 28, 2006, 05:39:49 PM »
Jackal, you really don't get this:
"Rotting vegatation also PRODUCES CO2"

Where did they get the CO2 from??????????????????

From the bloody atmosphere. If they completely rot, leaving nothing behind, then they have delivered what they had absorbed before in the first place.

C doesn't get produced. It's just the matter about WHERE it is stored.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #217 on: March 29, 2006, 08:28:04 AM »
zorch...your commercial remminded me that most of the greenies and doomsdayers don't know much about cars....  Just like the anti gun nuts don't know anything about guns....  but... in order to have a cause.... ya gotta have a villian right?

SUV's today get about 20 mpg... if a soccer mom loads all her kids and the neighbors into one and drives em to..... wherever...  then she will still get about 20 mpg.

If she got one of the toyotas or some other crap box that makes you all wet.... she would get about 30 mpg... if she had to make three trips to do the same thing.... she would be getting 10 mpg compared to the SUV.

beet and others say that wasting fuel for their hobbies is fine because they are spreading it around with a lot of passengers. so...

instead of worrying about SUV's you should be worrying about passenger miles.  

Many of the pickups you see on the road are getting within 5mpg or so of the little crap box econo boxes...


But.... what would make you happy?  woud getting rid of all SUV's make this all go away?

Maybe you can help rolex and beet with that list of things we must do in the next ten years?

I can make my own list but I will wait for the chicken little ones.

lazs

Offline Angus

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Global Warming... is THIS how we'll perish?
« Reply #218 on: March 29, 2006, 08:33:25 AM »
Well, if you accept your house being on fire, and conclude there is nothing you can do about it, just gush some more gas on it. Fine for you.
But my house is adjactent, so I'm not too happy about it.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #219 on: March 29, 2006, 08:39:53 AM »
not really relevant angus... I would simply call the fire department or try to put it out myself and call my insurance company... these things are obvious...

What you are suggesting is more like..... "your house is in danger of burning down so you must remove everything flamable and shut off all the electricity and gas and live in the dark sleeping on stone floors or you are a fool and doomed"

Now.... you may be right.... my risky behavior may set my house on fire (and endanger yours)  in the past... this was true to an even greater extent..

Did everyone just give up and live in stone houses without light or fire?   No....safer methods were developed along with better firefighting.

panic stops all progress.... crisis nutures progress.

lazs

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #220 on: March 29, 2006, 08:43:38 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
If she got one of the toyotas or some other crap box that makes you all wet.... she would get about 30 mpg... if she had to make three trips to do the same thing.... she would be getting 10 mpg compared to the SUV.
And how often do you see an SUV being driven by a soccer mom with any more than one passenger, and maybe a ball in the back? Whenever I see a BMW X5, for example, it's usually a solo female driver, or maybe one kid aged under 10 as passenger. Sometimes they even have shopping as part of their payload!

Angus - you and I know of what we speak. We've both actually BEEN in the areas affected. Well I have sort of. :o




Arctic Ice, as seen from the 64th parallel overhead the Davis Strait between Baffin Island and Greenland

Actually the 64th parallel is just below the Arctic Circle.



Greenland


Offline lazs2

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« Reply #221 on: March 29, 2006, 08:56:54 AM »
Hmmm.... so beet... If SUV's allways had two people in em (getting an effective mpg of 40) then they would be more efficient than all the econo crap boxes that I see all the time getting 30 mpg with only one passenger?

And... even if we banned all SUV travel with less than two passengers.... what exact effect would that have on your predicted glaobal warming timetable?

lazs

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #222 on: March 29, 2006, 09:04:08 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
Hmmm.... so beet... If SUV's allways had two people in em (getting an effective mpg of 40) then they would be more efficient than all the econo crap boxes that I see all the time getting 30 mpg with only one passenger?
Loaded question.
Quote
And... even if we banned all SUV travel with less than two passengers.... what exact effect would that have on your predicted glaobal warming timetable?
Less effect than a $1/gallon increase in the price of gas.

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #223 on: March 29, 2006, 09:12:19 AM »
Ok.... what effect would the raising of the gas price have on your timetable and.... what would you do with that money?   we know what government does with tax money so don't say "we" would spend it on new solutions...

so... how much is enough to stop the sky from falling and england being drowned and angus falling thru the ice?

lazs

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #224 on: March 29, 2006, 09:30:45 AM »
Not a simple equation, Lazs, because we'd have to take into account the energy demands of other countries like China and India, bearing in mind that demand in those countries is changing and is set to skyrocket. World-wide demand will begin to outstrip supply, and the price will go up, leading to a glut of SUVs.

Remember that CO2 output is not just from vehicles, but also from electricity generation.

All things considered, oil might last another ~20 years. Hopefully by then we will have the technology to harness LNG gas supplies, should the countries that have it in abundance be willing to sell it to us. And, one hopes that the difficulties surrounding nuclear energy might have been solved by then.