Bruno, thanks for the reply. I see you are sticking closely with the history and not delving into the "hypothetical" arena as deeply as I am, and the way I posed my question is partially to blame. My basic question was supposed to be a little more fundamental. There is an opinion that the Axis - Soviet war was a foregone conclusion before ever being waged, that there was no reason the Axis should have ever dared hope to defeat the USSR. It often goes so far as to say the US and UK may as well have never played a part in the war at all, as once the USSR was in conflict with the Axis, the Axis were doomed. It is the exact reverse of the view that the "US won the war by itself" -- it seems to say the US/West was irrelevant.
Posing hypothetical questions is one way to evaluate competing theories (granted, not the best way, but one way). A lot of the discussion/debate centers around degree, but there have been hints of the "West was irrelevant" creeping in here and there. So I pose more specifically now the hypothetical that Britain sues for peace and disarms in 1940 when France surrenders, the US remains pacifist, and in 1941 the Axis invade the USSR. (After all, that was the goal all along - defeat of the "Bolshevik Threat" was what united most of the Axis countries, Finland as "co-beligerent" the most extreme example of this.)
I brought up Monty and Torch, really meaning the entire NA campaign, as regards to Stalingrad more in that vein. The area to the Northwest of Stalingrad was defended mainly by Romanian, Hungarian and Italian troops while the Germans were on the offensive elsewhere. Without the NA campaign to destroy the bulk of the Italian army, the Italians alone have hundreds of thousands more troops in the East, likely concentrated in that area. Would it have been enough to prevent the encirclement of the 6th Army? Would it have at least weakened the Soviets enough that a subsequent counter-attack is able to relieve them?
Every hypothetical has alternative hypotheticals that could completely offset (yeah, but the Italians are deployed against Leningrad, so Stalingrad occurs as did historically), so I understand anyone's reluctance to delve in hypotheticals. But I will also pose the point that the "West was irrelevant" theory itself is a hypothetical. The USSR
did not go it alone, Axis resources
were diverted elsewhere, so we will never know with any certainty that they would have prevailed without the West. In my opinion, they would not have -- but it will always remain opinion, there is no way to "prove."
Once again, thanks to everyone for the opinions and insights. This has been a truly enjoyable thread.
-- BTW Bruno, the "second front in Europe" in June 1944 was actually a third -- the west was already in mainland Italy. Of course, you knew this, but for some reason Italy is easy for people to overlook and/or forget.