Author Topic: global warning update.  (Read 8542 times)

Offline Mini D

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global warning update.
« Reply #120 on: June 08, 2006, 01:14:40 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Curval
If you look on the right hand side you should notice that the graphed line has a distinctive downward trend, right at the end.  It is difficult to be very accurate on it, which I am sure is by design, but the period through which the ice depth is getting thinner FASTER is about in line with the industrial revolution to date.  If you elongated that line without the sharp decline it would extend well beyond "the present" and give the earth priobably another 20,000 - 40,000 years before the ice thickness is zero.
I don't think you understand what that chart is.

It is core depth for years. That means the ice is now currently 2000 feet (or whatever) deep. The chart means "what depth do you have to core to get that year's emissions data". It's not that the ice is melting, it's that it is building and trapping environmental data with it. It won't be zero in 40,000 years, it's currently zero since that would be the surface of the ice. What the chart shows is that the ice actually accumulated faster over the last 4000 years. Though, that really means nothing in and of itself. The composition of the ice is what is actually scientific. They just showed an arbitrary chart with a downward trend and people think the icecap is melting because of it.

It's amazing how misinterpreted this chart has been in this thread. Unfortunately, it's also typical.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #121 on: June 08, 2006, 01:24:02 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Skuzzy
Does anyone know how much CO2 the vegetation of this planet consumes annually?  Seems all the quotes I have seen about CO2 being produced is a gross figure.  Would make more sense if it were a net figure.

But then again, big numbers are always more alarming than small numbers.


It doesn't really matter if you take a say 500 year look at the carbon cycle, as all the carbon that an oak tree takes up is returned to the cycle when it burns or rots.  A pine tree only sequesters the carbon for a couple of centuries.

Carbon sequestration from the cycle happens when carboniferous stuff gets fossilized and put into the rock as coal, chalk, petroleum, and the other stuff we dig up and use.

The issue is what is the result of us taking this fossilized stuff out and put it back into the cycle.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2006, 01:26:45 AM by Holden McGroin »
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Offline Mini D

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« Reply #122 on: June 08, 2006, 01:40:07 AM »
BTW Curval, that website shows the temperature that icecap was exposed to decreasing over the last 5000 years. Something that occured prior to that caused one hell of a spike.

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #123 on: June 08, 2006, 01:42:55 AM »
Is that the Mars icecap your taking about?  Its shrinking too.  Global warming is happening on a couple other celestial bodies as well.
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #124 on: June 08, 2006, 03:43:30 AM »
Ok Jackal, lesson 2:
"1. Is the globe warming or not. (Well established yes)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Yes, if you choose to beleive that side of the coin who says it is . No, if you choose to beleive the side who says it is not."

There is an explanation while I call it "well established". It's been measured worldwide and the effects on the polar caps are well visible.
While the southern pole will stay for quite long with chunks the size of small countries sliding into the sea, the Northern Pole, which has been there for 50 million years, is melting away at a whooping speed.
Look at pictures (which you have seen before).

And
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline beet1e

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« Reply #125 on: June 08, 2006, 04:46:25 AM »
Good post, Angus - though I suspect that some will remain unconvinced. :huh

I have taken a step back from this thread, to ponder why some people persist in refuting scientific evidence with regard to global warming, and mans contribution in the form of billions of tonnes of CO2 released into the atmosphere annually.

I was born the same year as skuzzy and lukster (aka AKIron), and was in my early teens during NASAs Apollo programme to put man on the moon. I watched on TV with particular interest, especially from the Apollo-8 mission (first manned space flight to leave earths orbit) through to Apollo 11, and heard the words One small step for man live on TV, shortly after Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon. I was in awe of the scientific research that had taken place to make this feat possible, less than 70 years after Wilbur and Orville Wright had made mans first powered flight over a distance shorter than the 231ft length of a Boeing 747.

100 years prior to the 1969 Apollo 11 moon landing, there would have been many naysayers, who believed that manned flight of any kind was impossible, and who even believed that the earth was flat. However, by 1969, when the event was about to happen, no-one was in any doubt that man would indeed walk on the moon, as the Apollo craft sped towards it. But lets consider for a moment the calculations that would have been needed to make this possible the relative positions of the sun, moon and earth and the movements of these celestial bodies would have to have been taken into account. The timing of the relaunch of the moon vehicle in order to re-dock with the lunar orbiter would have been critical. It all happened because of a well thought out plan. In short, the NASA scientists and their associates knew what they were talking about and we never doubted them. In the years since, I have often marvelled at the way astronomers can predict when and where a solar eclipse is going to occur, especially as these predictions are made YEARS in advance. The last one I saw here was on 11th August 1999. The fact that it happened, right on cue just as scientists/astronomers predicted, tells me that these scientists know what theyre talking about. And again, when the event was about to happen, no-one was in any doubt that it would. No-one here was citing these predictions as scientific mumbo-jumbo on 10th August 1999, for example.

Now we have a different situation global warming. Unlike the next solar eclipse, the calamitous end result (assuming Man continues on the present course) is decades away, and will probably not happen to any significant degree within the lifetimes of those of us who were able to watch the Apollo moonlanding. Thus, the sceptics can pooh-pooh the scientific data presented by guys like Curval and Angus ^ and do it from a position of relative safety, knowing that they probably wont be around when the excrement hits the fan.

But I find it interesting that those who are the most dismissive of the alarms about global warming reject the scientific findings out of hand in the first place, and then search for ways to discredit them afterwards. I struggle to find a way to define this strange behaviour, and can best describe it as reverse dogmatism. Instead of presenting their own views as the absolute truth, they do the reverse by citing the views of others (including accomplished scientists) as patent falsehoods in the first instance, and then look for ways to discredit these claims in the second instance.

Earlier in this thread, I said Id been following David Attenboroughs series on global warming: http://www.bbc.co.uk/climatechaos DA is actually a zoologist, who has been presenting programmes on the subject since the 1970s, covering just about all species of animal, reptile, insect, fish and bird known to man, as well as their evolution and that of the earth itself. Clearly the man isnt stupid. So why would anyone doubt the material presented in his series about global warming, even if climatology is not the epicentre of his field of expertise?

Could it be that the proposed changes that Man needs to make to avert the disaster of global warming are perceived as going against the personal lifestyles of certain individuals who persist in refuting the scientific evidence? Could these same people be thinking that its all a conspiracy, and a government ploy to take away their vehicles, for example?

Having been reading this thread and others like it for several months now, Im seeing some ridiculous claims being made, falling into three broad categories.
  • Because global warming may be part of a natural cyclic change - however small, we should be absolved of any responsibility to reduce Mans CO2 output, ie. we can forget about the trillion tonnes of CO2 which will be emitted by 2050. And because global warming is happening on Mars, well hey that just proves that its nature at work, and not our problem!
  • "Its all a conspiracy. The government has an agenda and wants me to drive a smaller car"
  • Its all to do with cow farts
That last item is so ridiculous as to be barely worthy of mention. But whats even more ridiculous is the claim that global warming and climate change is a political issue. I can assure you that the disaster waiting to occur will take place whichever party is in power!

But even that is not as ridiculous as the latest naysayers stance, which is that concern for climate change is a form of religion. That surely takes the biscuit. :rofl

Offline Curval

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« Reply #126 on: June 08, 2006, 05:44:57 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mini D
I don't think you understand what that chart is.

It is core depth for years. That means the ice is now currently 2000 feet (or whatever) deep. The chart means "what depth do you have to core to get that year's emissions data". It's not that the ice is melting, it's that it is building and trapping environmental data with it. It won't be zero in 40,000 years, it's currently zero since that would be the surface of the ice. What the chart shows is that the ice actually accumulated faster over the last 4000 years. Though, that really means nothing in and of itself. The composition of the ice is what is actually scientific. They just showed an arbitrary chart with a downward trend and people think the icecap is melting because of it.

It's amazing how misinterpreted this chart has been in this thread. Unfortunately, it's also typical.


lol

Okay mr smarty pants.

But, why are you pointing this out to me specifically?  I wasn't the one who presented it as "proof" that the ice cap is melting and that it has been doing so naturally for tens of thousands of years.  All I did was to take that as the reason (as it was presented) and tried to show how difficult it was to actually get any meanful information out of it.

For the fifth or sixth time...I'm not a scientist.  I don't claim to be an expert at any of this stuff.

It isn't amazing that it has been misinterpreted at all.  It IS typical though.  Most of the "research" presented in this thread was quickly googled and used to promote a side of the argument.  It is one reason why I didn't present ANY backup to my opinion.
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Offline Curval

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« Reply #127 on: June 08, 2006, 05:46:23 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mini D
BTW Curval, that website shows the temperature that icecap was exposed to decreasing over the last 5000 years. Something that occured prior to that caused one hell of a spike.


And I'm sure if I spent enough google time I could find a site that says something totally different.
Some will fall in love with life and drink it from a fountain that is pouring like an avalanche coming down the mountain

Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #128 on: June 08, 2006, 06:11:39 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Ok Jackal, lesson 2:
"1. Is the globe warming or not. (Well established yes)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Yes, if you choose to beleive that side of the coin who says it is . No, if you choose to beleive the side who says it is not."

There is an explanation while I call it "well established". It's been measured worldwide and the effects on the polar caps are well visible.
While the southern pole will stay for quite long with chunks the size of small countries sliding into the sea, the Northern Pole, which has been there for 50 million years, is melting away at a whooping speed.
Look at pictures (which you have seen before).

And


OK Angus..........lesson rerun. :)

Yea.....we`ve done the graph and picture thingie before. You post a graph that says one thing and I can post a graph that says the opposite.
Not well established. Established with who? Those that believe it. There are just as many that says nay as there are that says yea.
The earth has been going through weather cycles since the beginning of recorded history.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2006, 07:14:30 AM by Jackal1 »
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #129 on: June 08, 2006, 07:59:03 AM »
Ok Jackal find them.
Especially find me a graph that shows the North pole NOT melting.
Then take a glass of whisky, put an iscube in it, leave it at living room temperature, and an hour later proof to me that it's not melting/melted :D

Some things, such as that one, cannot be debated bud. Think of it, it's been there 50.000.000 years.....
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #130 on: June 08, 2006, 08:00:42 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by beet1e

Having been reading this thread and others like it for several months now, I�m seeing some ridiculous claims being made


I`m seeing the history of manned space travel. Not sure why, but that`s what I`m seeing.



Quote
It`s all to do with cow farts
That last item is so ridiculous as to be barely worthy of mention.


Do you  find it ridiculous Beet? Do you ? Huh?
Well........so do I, but since I was the one who threw that in, let`s put it in context, shall we?
The actual comment, for those that don`t want to review was, "It`s the cow farts I`m tellin ya.......the cow farts!
Eat more steak. Save the world."
It was put in as a joke. A funny. A haha. Get it?
OK, but since you find it ridiculous and you put such faith in so called scientists, let`s have a look at it, shall we?
Scientists in London evidently don`t find it ridiculous. Myabe you should dial em up and have a word with them. :)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scientists working on cure for gassy cows
Food additive could reduce methane emissions dramatically
 

LONDON - Cows belching and breaking wind cause methane pollution, but British scientists say they have developed a diet to make pastures smell like roses — almost.

“In some experiments we get a 70 percent decrease (in methane emissions), which is quite staggering,” biochemist John Wallace told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Wallace, leader of the microbial biochemistry group at the Rowett Research Institute in Aberdeen, said the secret to sweeter-smelling cows is a food additive based on fumaric acid, a naturally occurring chemical essential to respiration of animal and vegetable tissues.
A 12-month commercial and scientific evaluation of the additive has just begun, but he said if it proves successful it could be a boon to cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions.

“In total around 14 percent of global methane comes from the guts of farm animals. It is worth doing something about,” Wallace said. Other big sources of methane are landfills, coal mines, rice paddies and bogs.

Scientists in Australia and New Zealand have also been working to develop similar products amid growing concern about greenhouse gas emissions from cattle and sheep.

In New Zealand the government in 2003 proposed a flatulence tax, with methane emitted by farm animals responsible for more than half the country’s greenhouse gases. The plan was ultimately withdrawn after widespread protests.

“We’ve had more success than they (scientists in Australia and New Zealand) have. Everyone has been trying different methods. We just got lucky,” Wallace said.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now , on the other hand, I can also post a story, if you are interested, concerning a study about acid rain reducing the amounts of methane produced in wetlands. This study was done by NASA and Open University in the United Kingdom.
You do remember when acid rain was the big concern, dontcha? Yaknow....... when it was considered the flavor of the week for doomsdayers.remember?
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Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #131 on: June 08, 2006, 08:06:41 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Ok Jackal find them.
Especially find me a graph that shows the North pole NOT melting.
Then take a glass of whisky, put an iscube in it, leave it at living room temperature, and an hour later proof to me that it's not melting/melted :D

Some things, such as that one, cannot be debated bud. Think of it, it's been there 50.000.000 years.....


Angus......it was related to temp charts.
Go back to the other thread and review if you wish.
As far as the pole goes...I think you actualy mean the ice there instead of the pole. :)
Ice melts in some places and grows in others over time. Has always been and I suppose always will be. The earths atmosphere has and always will go through climate changes and shifts in patterns.
BTW.......one good volcanic eruption could possibly give you more ice than you ever wanted.
Let`s wring our hands and gnash our teeth about that.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2006, 08:09:06 AM by Jackal1 »
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Offline lukster

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« Reply #132 on: June 08, 2006, 08:09:47 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mini D
I don't think you understand what that chart is.

It is core depth for years. That means the ice is now currently 2000 feet (or whatever) deep. The chart means "what depth do you have to core to get that year's emissions data". It's not that the ice is melting, it's that it is building and trapping environmental data with it. It won't be zero in 40,000 years, it's currently zero since that would be the surface of the ice. What the chart shows is that the ice actually accumulated faster over the last 4000 years. Though, that really means nothing in and of itself. The composition of the ice is what is actually scientific. They just showed an arbitrary chart with a downward trend and people think the icecap is melting because of it.

It's amazing how misinterpreted this chart has been in this thread. Unfortunately, it's also typical.


I posted the graph from a previously posted link with the question "what does this mean"? I wondered how you could determine the rate at which ice is melting based on drilling into it. Afterall, the melted ice doesn't stick around. I also figured, what the hell do I know hence the question. OK, here's what they concluded based on the "cold hard " eveidence (pun intended). Looks like a sharp temperature increase spkie about 15,000-20,000 years ago:

« Last Edit: June 08, 2006, 08:17:09 AM by lukster »

Offline Angus

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« Reply #133 on: June 08, 2006, 08:13:28 AM »
Nonono, Jackal, not getting away with this one:
"Go back to the other thread and review if you wish.
As far as the pole goes...I think you actualy mean the ice there instead of the pole.
Ice melts in some places and grows in others over time. Has always been and I suppose always will be"

This icecap wasn't that small for a long time, and as you see the melting is very fast. The Greenland Glacier is also melting. Our glaciers in Iceland are melting, but they're much smaller)
The southern pole is breaking off larger chunks than ever, but being thick and tough that one is going to hold a long time.
So where are there any major glaciers growing??????????????????
Show me. And show me a global temperature graph which has the opposite of the one I posted. Please :D
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #134 on: June 08, 2006, 08:40:01 AM »
great post beet...  Now you are saying that anyone who doesn't go along with the current "man will destroy the earth in a decade or two" mantra is a flat earther or...

that we didn't think man could land on the moon?   I would venture to say that everyone here that was alive durring nasa's program that now doesn't believe all the "man made doom and glooom we have to do something NOW... run for your lives.. send us your money...  the sky is falling"

We all KNEW it was possible to drive to the moon... You just needed a hot rod with enough horsepower and some guys who could drive.   The mechanics and pragmatic here had no doubt but....

We also watched TIME magazine and all the "scientists" tell us we would be in the new ice age by the year 2000.... that mexico would have canada like temps and much of north america would be uninhabitable...

These same scientists told us that we would be completely out of oil by 1990 if we didn't do "something" in 1970  we did... we made crappy smog mobiles that got the worse milage in history.

We listened to scientific legends like carl nutjob sagan tell us on TV during the first gulf war that if the sadman lit even half of kuwaits oil fields on fire that it would destroy a "delicate" balance and we would experiance a "nuclear winter" that would cause mass starvation with 20-40% crop reductions....

We have lived long enough to not see the sky cars and the depletion of so many natural resources as predicted by these god like scientists... we have seen some of the greatest inventions of man made... not by scientists who couldn't even predict em... but by common engineers and tinkerers.

So noooo  we don't think that everything that the gods of science tell us is true... they got the round earth thing right but contrary to popular opinion.... I wasn't around back then...

In my lifetime they have a real bad rep for chicken little stuff.

lazs