global warning update.

[Skuzzy]

LOL Holden.

Upshot is this.  I really do not see anyone on the planet as being intelligent enough, having access to all the variables involved, having the time, nor having the tools to be able to figure it out with any level of precision.

Some places are warmer, others are cooler.  How about the polar ice caps melting due to higher levels of exposure to ultra-violet radiation from the Sun, due to the ozone depletion in those areas of the globe?

[Angus]

Ehem...Jackal...get clear on what you said:
"Ice melts in some places and grows in others over time"
Or rather, clear out this question:
Is the globe warming or NOT?
If it's NOT, your statement means that the ice should be growing elsewhere in the same proportion.
If it is, then you agree that the Globe is warming.

[Mini D]

Originally posted by Curval
But, why are you pointing this out to me specifically?  I wasn't the one who presented it as "proof" that the ice cap is melting and that it has been doing so naturally for tens of thousands of years.  All I did was to take that as the reason (as it was presented) and tried to show how difficult it was to actually get any meanful information out of it.

Maybe because you've written the longest diatribe on it? Spent the most time over evaluating a simple chart with a completely misguided assertion?

For the fifth or sixth time...I'm not a scientist.  I don't claim to be an expert at any of this stuff.

That's a real convenient go-to card. Why are you participating in this thread at all? Does the subject strike a chord with you? Is it something you wish to be true? I mean... really... it's as if you felt you had to say something.

It isn't amazing that it has been misinterpreted at all.  It IS typical though.  Most of the "research" presented in this thread was quickly googled and used to promote a side of the argument.  It is one reason why I didn't present ANY backup to my opinion.

Opinion? You observed a chart and completely misread it. That's like having an opinion that the color red tastes like a vacuum. I did not present any data, I just opened my eyes a bit and actually looked at numbers being represented and thought "that doesn't make any sense" and then went to the site and spent time reading it.

For an issue that's so critical, I'm seeing alot of "I googled it...", "I saw a special on T.V....", "I couldn't be bothered to read the text next to the chart...." type stuff going on. You just happened to be the pinacle of it in this thread.

[Jackal1]

Originally posted by Angus
Ehem...Jackal...get clear on what you said:
"Ice melts in some places and grows in others over time"
Or rather, clear out this question:
Is the globe warming or NOT?
If it's NOT, your statement means that the ice should be growing elsewhere in the same proportion.
If it is, then you agree that the Globe is warming.

Even though you posted and reposted it yourself you seem to be missing something. Do you see this part or is it not visible on your machine? -->"grows in others over time."  "Over time".....you see that? Hope that helps.

Is the globe warming or NOT?

(requoted to follow a new fad )

Warmer in some places, colder in others. Just as it`s always been.

From winter 2005.

"Elsewhere Wednesday, the weather service said record lows included 28 below zero at Drummond, Mont., where the date’s previous record was 21 below in 1971; 26 below at Seeley Lake, Mont.; 25 below at Laramie, Wyo., tying a 1978 reading; 17 below at Alliance, Neb.; 19 below at Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and 3 below at Lincoln, Ill.

Iowa City checked in at a balmy -12 last night."

And

"Record Low Temperatures in Parts of U.S.
Dec 07 2:02 PM US/Eastern
Email this story    

By CATHERINE TSAI
Associated Press Writer

DENVER

Bitterly cold air poured southward across the nation's midsection Wednesday, dropping temperatures to record lows from Montana to Illinois.

The mercury dived to a record 45 below at West Yellowstone, Mont., the frequently cold spot at the west entrance to Yellowstone National Park, the National Weather Service said. The old record for Dec. 7 was 39 below, set in 1927. "

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Maybe it`s the predicted iceage prophecy coming to pass.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by Skuzzy
How about the polar ice caps melting due to higher levels of exposure to ultra-violet radiation from the Sun, due to the ozone depletion in those areas of the globe?

Could be that they are just melting for the same reasons that the caps on Mars are.  The is going thru a hot flash presently. Apparently the sun is a menopausal female.

[Jackal1]

Scientists have a habit of never agreeing on anything. Or at the very least finding ways to cover their tracks if shown to be wrong.
Surprised that with all of the discussion on things effecting man , weather, atmosphere and environment that either this or Hiroshima hasn`t came up yet.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chernobyl's After-Effects Not as Dire as Predicted, Report Says
    By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL,
International Herald Tribune
Published: September 5, 2005

Nearly 20 years after the huge nuclear accident in Chernobyl, a new scientific report has found that its after-effects on health and the environment have proved not so dire as scientists had been previously predicted.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What do you think? Think either this explosion or Hiroshima had any noticeable effect on the atmosphere, weather, etc.?

So....scientists  predicted one thing, then changed their minds.
Others predicted nearly the opposite.

Who`s funding who? Who wants what and who is doing what in coming up with scientific data to show one theory while on the reverse other scientists are coming up with data to show otherwise.
You think who is funding who has any bearing on outcomes?

[2bighorn]

Originally posted by Shuckins
Lukster's graph showing the Vostok Ice Core Temperature Differences over the last 200,000 years point out a couple of interesting facts.

It also shows that warming cycle occurs about every 100,000 years (which BTW is believed to be caused by changes in the earth's orbit), which is about right if you compare the data which goes back further, but the present warming is happening just mere 10,000 years after last cooling period.

So, why is it out of whack so suddenly? Just a short term spike? There have been local variations like Little Ice Age and others, but today warming is global.

I got my hands on Pentagon global warming study and those guys deffinately aren't pro environment. Their main concern is melting ice cap which is important for subs operations. Their conclusion is that north ice cap is shrinking at accelerated rate due to increased surface air and water temps and cause of the increase are greenhouse gases.

The main contributor to greenhouse effect is water vapor, which represents about 3/4 of all greenhouse contributors. CO2 is next with share of about 1/6, followed by ozone and all others.

The fact is, we can not directly influence amount of water vapor, but we can influence it indirectly with controlling the levels of CO2, which is next in the line of.

Increase in CO2 can rise the temperature which will cause creation of more water vapor which again will rice temperature which will create even more water vapor, etc.

Ice core samples show amount of CO2 being pretty stable over the last 10,000 years and its medium was about 270ppm with spikes to about 300ppm.

Those levels have increased to todays value of 380ppm since beginning of industrial age, with 90% of increase after WW2.

In the recent past (million years ago until present), spikes in CO2 levels were mainly due to volcanic activity.
Today, burning of fosil fuels alone releases about 6 billion tons of CO2 per year, in comparison, volcanos release 200 million tons per year.


To argue about existance of warming and its causes is silly. Plenty of hard data.
To argue about what can we do is also silly. We won't do anything, it's human nature, besides, whatever we can do, wouldn't be nearly enough to reverse the warming, the best you could hope for is just a slowdown.
With current climate models, real drama starts sometime after year 2100. I'll be long gone til then...

[Jackal1]

Well....if it actualy does come to pass that global warming actualy does exist and does get to the point of being a reasonable threat....................... we can all get rich.
Simply buy up the majority of stock in the fur trade industry..................and nuke a major volcano. Instant Iceage. Angus could rest easy then.





Of course such an action would undoubtly create a chain reaction of related, but unpredictable events which would cause other problems that could be lamented and worried about.............

[Skuzzy]

Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Could be that they are just melting for the same reasons that the caps on Mars are.  The is going thru a hot flash presently. Apparently the sun is a menopausal female.

Hehe.

Well, we do know for a fact the ozone layer has been depleted over the polar ice caps at both poles.  Seems to me, more UV, more meltage.

The problem I have with virtually every study I have seen/read is they either do not list all the variables they included in the study, or they list them and they are falling way short of all the potential variables.

A study looking a CO2 increases, and nothing else, is rather useless.  One that adds water vapor is still useless.  There are just too many variables involved for any current study to make an absolute statement about what is going on and way it is happening.

[Angus]

Jackal, you're hanging on a straw. It was for instance very cold here in --- may.
So, oranges and apples. To melt half of the N-Pole it takes more than some "little" curves. But you cling on little ones, or local stuff. If that isn't enough you get into curves that are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of years. But what we are talking is the half of the N-Polar cap melting away in the lifespan of a human. That is pretty fast. While not being the biggest chunk of ice on the globe, it makes a statement for what IS actually happening. No kid with crayons can change that.

"Is the globe warming or NOT?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


(requoted to follow a new fad )

Warmer in some places, colder in others. Just as it`s always been.

Ballocks mate,,,,,ballocks.

[2bighorn]

Mars is a different story. Its core cooled down and magnetic field went poof. Nothing to shield atmosphere from solar radiation...

As for the Ozone Layer, it's in stratosphere and filters UV which does not warm up like IR does, so the holes above the caps letting through UV are hardly responsible for any melting.

[Holden McGroin]

Originally posted by 2bighorn
Mars is a different story. Its core cooled down and magnetic field went poof. Nothing to shield atmosphere from solar radiation...

As for the Ozone Layer, it's in stratosphere and filters UV which does not warm up like IR does, so the holes above the caps letting through UV are hardly responsible for any melting.

But the core was cold 100 years ago, and yet the caps were robust.

It is interesting that Mars, Earth, and Jupiter are all experiencing warming but apparently by completely unrelated causes.

Except maybe the sun.

[lukster]

Originally posted by 2bighorn
It also shows that warming cycle occurs about every 100,000 years

Slow down now. One cycle (if it is that) isn't enough to establish a pattern. The only thing I think we can safely assume from that study is that our climate does change without mankind's influence over time.

[Skuzzy]

Originally posted by Angus

(requoted to follow a new fad )

Warmer in some places, colder in others. Just as it`s always been.

Ballocks mate,,,,,ballocks.

Uh, do you live all over the world?  Last summer we had low temperatures during the summer here in Texas.  We had record rainfall the year before combined with moderate temperatures as well.  Heck, it felt like we went from Spring to Fall that year.

For the last 5 or 6 years, we have had very moderate summers and winters here.  This year looks like its giong to be a hot one though.  But that is what it does here.  We have horrible summers and winters for some period of time. and then go into a period of mild weather for some period of time.  Odd thing is the last mild period was milder than any previous period.

[Skuzzy]

Originally posted by 2bighorn
Mars is a different story. Its core cooled down and magnetic field went poof. Nothing to shield atmosphere from solar radiation...

As for the Ozone Layer, it's in stratosphere and filters UV which does not warm up like IR does, so the holes above the caps letting through UV are hardly responsible for any melting.

The holes above the caps are many,  many times larger than they should be and are continuing to expand.  The North side of Earth now shows the ozone layer non-existent well into Canada.