A rational discussion about AH gameplay

[EagleDNY]

It looks like the "new" Spit XVI and VIII have pretty much replaced the "old" IX and V in the kills list.  I'm still pretty attached to the Seafire, but I'll have to take an VIII up and play with it for a while as well, just to see how much like the old V it really is.

I've tried out the XVI, and it is an easy ride to get kills in.  I can see why newbies especially would want to take it up - it gives you a lot of options and will get you out of a lot of jams.  My only problem with Spits in general is the "seems like a unicycle" landing gear...  getting back down without putting a wingtip in the dirt  

For gameplay purposes, newbies do need a ride that gives them a chance against the more "seasoned" members of the community.  I'm not one of those who thinks that anyone up in a Spit or La is some kind of "dweeb" that needs to be mocked on channel 200.  We were all newbies once.

If a newbie is up in an La-7 or Spit XVI, just think of it as an opportunity for greater perkies when you rip them up in a lesser ride.  

EagleDNY
$.02

[Edbert]

Originally posted by EagleDNY
They have a saying: there's lies, there's damn lies, and then there's statistics...

OK - first let me say that I appreciate all the data, and I find it interesting, but there are some assumptions that I can't agree are valid without a lot more information.  

Ya beat me to it, one of the first lines is "if we assume", well you know what they say about THAT word?

This analysis is all fine and good, and I DEFINITELY appreciate the work that went into it and it's presentation, as well as the intellectual discussion sans dogmatic accusations. But I beleive we, the players, simply do not have access to the correct dataum to make such assumptions. What you really need is the number of downloads/trials/subscribtions/cancellations broken down by demographics to take this where you intended it to go. If I were running HTC that information would not be made availble to anyone outside of the executive offices.

Bottom line is this:
The game has changed much since it was called "Confirmed Kill", so has the player-base, so has the player mentality. I suspect that change is the only constant and only those willing to adapt to change will ever be long-term subscriber. I do not think there is anyone on the planet with more experience and expertise at making MMOL air-combat sims than either Dale or Doug, and HTC gets them both. I for one intend to sit back, trust their judgement, and enjoy the ride for less than the cost of a coke per day.

[dtango]

scottydawg - that's possible but I didn't do it.  Someone else is welcome to do it.  One proxy could be to look at B-24 vs. all models, B-17's vs. all models etc. in the killstats.  That's a lot of work though to run each of those reports per bomber model per number of months you would want to collect.

Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs

[scottydawg]

Originally posted by dtango
scottydawg - that's possible but I didn't do it.  Someone else is welcome to do it.  One proxy could be to look at B-24 vs. all models, B-17's vs. all models etc. in the killstats.  That's a lot of work though to run each of those reports per bomber model per number of months you would want to collect.

Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs

Absolutely, and you've done a lot of work to pull that data together.  Thanks for that, I'm sure a lot of people appreciate it.  The rest will say "Holy crap, Einstein, I'm not reading all that".

[dtango]

edbert wrote:
Bottom line is this:
The game has changed much since it was called "Confirmed Kill", so has the player-base, so has the player mentality. I suspect that change is the only constant and only those willing to adapt to change will ever be long-term subscriber. I do not think there is anyone on the planet with more experience and expertise at making MMOL air-combat sims than either Dale or Doug, and HTC gets them both. I for one intend to sit back, trust their judgement, and enjoy the ride for less than the cost of a coke per day.

I accept the idea that the game has changed but objectively looking at some of the data available to us it hasn't changed in ways that some folks have been talking about.

2ndly, let's not confuse the issue of the total player population statistics with the aircraft and vehicle usage statistics.

Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs

[EagleDNY]

Originally posted by dtango
EagleDNY- There's another saying - statistics don't lie, people do.  And that is the problem.  The way that usually happens is through selection bias - when people look for data that confirms a predetermined belief while conveniently ignoring or dismissing the others.

(2) I accept the argument that the total kills/deaths may not indicate the total player base.  It seems like a reasonable proxy however.  If not player base it at least represents the amount of activity in the MA.  

But let's just talk about big vs. small map adjustments just a bit.  For instance If it takes longer to find the fights for larger maps, how come the distribution of kills/deaths for the short-legged aircraft like the La-7 or the Spitfire hasn't changed?  Instead we see a drop in some of the longer-legged aircraft instead.  That would seem to indicate that map sizes haven't changed the game play dramatically.

Agree with your argument on selection bias - we all do it every day.  Every time we pick one ride over another and take off, we are expressing our bias and creating another piece of data for your graph.

Agree that the total kills/deaths does represent the level of activity in the MA, and even must be representative of the total player base in some fashion.  

In the Big Maps vs Small Maps argument, I would submit that the distribution of kills/deaths isn't really changed because all you have to do is up with enough gas to get you to the nearest enemy dar bar and get into a fight to provide data for your statistics (either a kill, death, or both).
The average time it takes to get you to that fight is probably more to do with the average distance between bases on big vs small maps, which would tell us how much deviation in the data a big map might cause over a small map.  

Is there data available on LANDED kills vs just kills & deaths?  That might provide some interesting info as well.  I'd rather like to know what the average landed per plane is, and the percentage of players that actually get home with their kills as opposed to getting a kill and gettting subsequently killed themselves.  

Again - appreciate the research, I agree that it does show that AH can take quite a few changes and keep on going just fine.

EagleDNY
$.02

[dtango]

EagleDNY - no way that I know of to get landed kills stats easily & publicly.  

I've thought a bit about the whole kills/sortie, landed-kills issue a bit.  On the surface they may seem useful but without getting into the gory details of it all the more I thought about them the more I'm not sure I could find a meaningful use for them at least for some of the analysis I was doing.

Tango, XO
412th FS Braunco Mustangs

[Nutzoid]

Originally posted by Edbert
Ya beat me to it, one of the first lines is "if we assume", well you know what they say about THAT word?

This analysis is all fine and good, and I DEFINITELY appreciate the work that went into it and it's presentation, as well as the intellectual discussion sans dogmatic accusations. But I beleive we, the players, simply do not have access to the correct dataum to make such assumptions. What you really need is the number of downloads/trials/subscribtions/cancellations broken down by demographics to take this where you intended it to go. If I were running HTC that information would not be made availble to anyone outside of the executive offices.

Bottom line is this:
The game has changed much since it was called "Confirmed Kill", so has the player-base, so has the player mentality. I suspect that change is the only constant and only those willing to adapt to change will ever be long-term subscriber. I do not think there is anyone on the planet with more experience and expertise at making MMOL air-combat sims than either Dale or Doug, and HTC gets them both. I for one intend to sit back, trust their judgement, and enjoy the ride for less than the cost of a coke per day.

Yup, me to!:aok

[hitech]

If we assume that total number of kills (which also equals total deaths) in the MA as a proxy for the total MA player base population what does that tell us about the population?

I would have assumed so also, until I looked at your chart and compared it to our subscriber base, but it dosn't.

HiTech

[Edbert]

Reading between the lines of Dale's post...the number of kills, while generally climing over time, has declined over time when viewed as a per-subscriber figure.

So even in a more crowded arena there's less killin per-capita (pure conjecture on my part, and of course tainted by my own personal bias, I realize).

[icemaw]

Originally posted by hitech
FALCONWING: Congrats, you have just discoverd the 2  fundementals of online computer games.

How to implenent both conecepts is what pyro and I have doing since we began 12 years ago.

  and doing a great job of it btw imho anyways!

[EagleDNY]

Originally posted by hitech
I would have assumed so also, until I looked at your chart and compared it to our subscriber base, but it dosn't.

HiTech

I didn't think there would be an exact correlation (too many other factors involved).   And I know better than to ask if the subscriber base data is available.

HT: might be interesting to track some additional data (or post some if you are already tracking it).  Sorties upped, kills landed, etc.  Might make some more interesting reading.

EagleDNY
$.02

[999000]

Sir Tango most excellent post sir!...in my post "integrity" It was suppose to be about the integrity of the decsion ...ie show us some data....Unfortunatly some took this as a direct attack used the propriatary data sheild  to  not devulgle the "skunkworks best and deepest secrets. an not other less sensitive data.

Hopefully their can be more thoughtfull information data  and discusions..sometimes the answers to problems come from  two bad ideas that spark the thought of a good idea in someone.

I even wonder if health of an areana can be measured buy the total number of player hours played a month...And think it would be interesting to see if the hours played "satisfaction" has increased or not since the new changes.

hoping for the best!
999000

[NoBaddy]

Originally posted by Edbert

The game has changed much since it was called "Confirmed Kill", so has the player-base, so has the player mentality. I suspect that change is the only constant and only those willing to adapt to change will ever be long-term subscriber. I do not think there is anyone on the planet with more experience and expertise at making MMOL air-combat sims than either Dale or Doug, and HTC gets them both. I for one intend to sit back, trust their judgement, and enjoy the ride for less than the cost of a coke per day.

Many people might be surprised how little has changed since Dale first laid fingers to keyboard to produce "Confirmed Kill". Most everything I see today, in game and on this BBS, is pretty much the same stuff I was seeing 16 years ago in AW...just a heck of a lot more of it. The most positive change I have seen is the one made most recently. It appears to be having a very positive impact on the overall community of the game. Time will tell, but, the first steps appear to be in the right direction.

BTW, just so you know...Doug is the REAL brains behind the operation. Dale is just The PUTZ.

[hitech]

EagleDNY: While I agree on the more interesting reading. It realy is not in HTC's best interst to release data.

HiTech