Author Topic: Global Warming  (Read 16835 times)

Offline Elfie

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« Reply #405 on: February 18, 2007, 06:55:11 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Mace2004
The largest outbreak ever recorded up until then was 148 and was called the "super outbreak" in 3-4 April 1974 and killed 315.  That's the outbreak mentioned in the Newsweek article and attributed to "global cooling" by "experts".  There was also an outbreak of over 400 in May of 2003 but this, of course, was some time after the article was written.  I'm sure that someone's running around saying the 400 were caused by global warming.


I stand corrected. I did some research and you are correct. Also found some really neat photos of tornados. :D
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Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #406 on: February 18, 2007, 09:39:11 PM »
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Originally posted by straffo
This sentence has no sense.


It does if you understand that the directly measured weather record goes back only an eye blink on the climactic time scale.

I was pointing out that looking at the last ten years and saying that due to them being high temperature years, even record high temperature years, and saying that this decade has statistical significance is a fallacy, much like tossing a coin ten times straight and coming up heads and then based upon that assuming that the odds are no longer 50-50 on the next toss.
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #407 on: February 19, 2007, 04:07:13 AM »
Well, our ice caps go a good deal further back on the climatic scale, and they're telling us that it's warming....fast.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #408 on: February 19, 2007, 04:38:11 AM »
The historic time scale, the sagas tell of your countryman, Lief Ericsson leaving Iceland, settling Greenland, exploring New Foundland, which he called Vinland because he found wine grapes there; where they are not found today because the climate is colder than it was 1000 years ago.

However that is not a directly measured temperature, so those years are not the records we site today.
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline Angus

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« Reply #409 on: February 19, 2007, 05:53:47 AM »
I know. 1000 years ago was as warm as now.
The Greenland Glacier is a rather unknown factor, while our glaciers were smaller.
The N-Pole however is belived to have been bigger.....
If Vinland was Newfoundland, there was no winegrapes there, however if he landed around New York as some belive, there might have been some. The whole wine deal remains a little...unexplained, but it might refer to something other than winegrapes.
Back in those days they used to grow rye and barley in Iceland, - today we are growing barley and beginning with wheat, which proved impossible 20-30 years ago.
I know there are swings. The one we have today however is being fast, and predicted. We are already in the climate level of 1000, but wer're still warming fast.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #410 on: February 19, 2007, 08:55:02 AM »
Just imagine.........there are actual changes in the earth, the atmosphere and weather patterns. For real. Who would have ever imagined such a thing? :)
I ran a scientific test over the weekend. The results are astonishing and I am sure will they will be published in some upcoming scientific study reports. At least they make as much sense, or more, than some of the off the wall crap that is trying to be passed off as fact now.
Here is the short version.........----------> Ice cubes still melt in a glass of JD over an extended period in Texas. Amaaaaaaaaaaaazing! :)
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Offline lazs2

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« Reply #411 on: February 19, 2007, 09:50:27 AM »
oboe.. you misunderstand me..  I am not saying that the planet is or is not in a warming trend.   I am saying that I don't think we can affect it (one way or the other) in any noticeable way.

I am saying that if the sun activity was high and has leveled off...  If the temp has more or less leveled off... Then how could we be having a "massive" effect?     Everything else being equal.. we should be driving it up at an escalating rate all on our own...

And.. if it settles down or gets colder...  and.. the UN and the "scientists" are right.. then we are averting a powerful ice age and should continue with what we are doing.

I am not worried about 1 degree hotter in a century any more than I am 1 degree cooler in the next.

now... what do we do about that darn asteroid and where do we send our money?

lazs

Offline indy007

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« Reply #412 on: February 19, 2007, 10:27:03 AM »
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Originally posted by Angus
Back in those days they used to grow rye and barley in Iceland, - today we are growing barley and beginning with wheat, which proved impossible 20-30 years ago.


How much of that is actually climate related, or more attributable to the advances made in GE crops? With good research and a solid breeding program, you can create strains that will thrive virtually anywhere.

Offline Sabre

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Additional factor is carbon soot...
« Reply #413 on: February 19, 2007, 12:04:52 PM »
Satellites have been accurately measuring the temperature of the troposphere all over the face of the earth since 1979. You can view a map of the globe with all temperatures above and below average mapped out in red (above) and blue (below) month by month for over 25 years. Anyone can plainly see that global warming is regional. Near the equator, both above and below it, is almost always uncolored or blue. South America, Central America, and the lower U.S. are experiencing cooling. Most of Africa is cooling. Austrailia is cooling. Southern Europe and Southern Asia are cooling. The air over almost all the Pacific and Mid, and South Atlantic is cooling. Greenland is heating up. Northern Asia and Northern Europe are heating up. Northern Canada and Alaska are heating up. Antarctica has been about the same and the interior has actually cooled off some in the last 10 years. Global warming IS REGIONAL! Everyone needs to know this but no one is being told. If you’re unbiased about this and willing to be swayed by the facts then go to the link below and click through the time series of the global map showing where it is warming, where it is cooling, and how much.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/

Pay attention to the lower graph too. It represents the average across the globe. Note it spends about as much time above as below zero point indicating that, at least since 1979, the earth hasn’t been heating or cooling on average, some places are heating and some are cooling.

Summary:
1) Satellite measurements of the temperature of the troposphere are the only source of temperature measurements across every point of the earth. These were calibrated by radiosonde temperatures aloft and are very precise.

2) Regional temperature plots across the earth’s surface over 25 years of satellite coverage show a cooling trend south of Canada and north of Antarctica. Antarctica itself while varying from year to year has not exhibited either more heating or more cooling. In the higher northern latitudes there has been significantly more warming than cooling.

3) The net of all warming and cooling over the entire globe is neutral. Warming is regional, almost exclusively confined to the far north, and is offset by slight cooling on most of the rest of the globe.

4) CFC (0.3), ozone (0.4), and black soot on snow (0.8) perfectly account for the observed regional patterns of warming for, according to Hansen 2005 (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/2237157100v1.pdf), a total forcing of 1.5 from these factors.

5) Suspended aerosols exert a cooling effect of -2.1 and land use albedo change -0.15 (Hansen) for a total of -2.25.

6) Minor greenhouse gases excluding CO2 and solar flux increase account for another 1.0 of heating.

7) Without considering C02 at all we get a total of 2.5 in warming and 2.25 in cooling. Almost a perfect balance.

8) Without consideration of C02 at all the rest of the heating and cooling factors perfectly match the global and regional temperature patterns measured by the best instruments we have. Aerosol cooling dominates greenhouse gas warming over the lower and middle latitudes which accounts for slight regional cooling trend there. In the high northern latitudes where snow cover is permanent and sources of black soot are near enough to reach it, warming from black soot on snow plus greenhouse gas dominates aerosol cooling for net warming trend in that region. In Antarctica black soot sources are too far away to darken the snow and there’s no net warming.

9) The $64,000 question is why C02 is brought into the picture when all the other factors explain the observations? C02 is not just unnecessary but when added in per Hansen at warming = 1.5 it should easily force a warming trend ALL OVER THE GLOBE and that is CLEARLY NOT in the satellite data.

So in addition to "It's the sun, stupid!" we should also say "It's the soot, stupid!"  Of course, this shifts the blame off the US, which has been working successfully to reduce particulate emissions for 30+ years, and onto the less developed nations.  Can't have that; not politically correct, after all.
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #414 on: February 19, 2007, 12:22:21 PM »
Hehe, Jackal:
"Ice cubes still melt in a glass of JD over an extended period in Texas. Amaaaaaaaaaaaazing! "
They would have stayed solid for what, the last 20 million years on the N-Pole. Only recently would the JD (undrinkable anyway :D) be in danger of water pollution...

Lazs:
"I am not worried about 1 degree hotter in a century any more than I am 1 degree cooler in the next."
1 degree in a century is actually quite a lot!


And Indy:
"How much of that is actually climate related, or more attributable to the advances made in GE crops"

No GE crops. Look up, mostly used in the USA, and getting banned in some EU countries. Anyway this case is not GE, just sheer temps.
(BTW, crops of the warmer sorts are going up, - i.e. Barley and above. And regarding GE, FYI, our most popular potato species comes from the first batch here in the 18th century. Ok, - the crops from that one are rising too....)
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #415 on: February 20, 2007, 07:23:25 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Hehe, Jackal:
"Ice cubes still melt in a glass of JD over an extended period in Texas. Amaaaaaaaaaaaazing! "
They would have stayed solid for what, the last 20 million years on the N-Pole.


Not unless they were plastic ice cubes they wouldn`t have. North Pole Texas is between Brownsville and Houston. Very hot and humid around Corpus and such places in the summer. :)

Quote
(undrinkable anyway :D)


You Suh, have offended the south. We will invade........well maybe not. Too far to carry the barrels.  :O
Democracy is two wolves deciding on what to eat. Freedom is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
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Offline Angus

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« Reply #416 on: February 20, 2007, 09:15:50 AM »
Duh, watch for red-striped sails on the horizon, - they bring "Brennivín"
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #417 on: February 20, 2007, 02:36:44 PM »
angus.. you are just as worried about one degree cooler one century than the last or just one degree warmer?    what if it one degree warmer one century and then two degrees cooler the next?    

What should we do?

I think the reason that the scientists are into man made global warming this time is because last time when they did the global cooling thing....

There was no money in it... they pretty much had to say.... "oh well... it will happen and there is nothing we can do about it."



lazs

Offline Angus

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« Reply #418 on: February 21, 2007, 07:18:57 AM »
There is money in it, money out of it, and one degree in a century (CELCIUS) is actually rather much.
On a constant rise it's enough to boil an egg so the money will all be out.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Jackal1

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« Reply #419 on: February 21, 2007, 07:36:40 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Duh, watch for red-striped sails on the horizon, - they bring "Brennivín"


Might as well bring the Hákarl .
I`ll trade you some oysters.....Texas style. :)
The Brennivin sounds nasty, horrible and foul. I`d like to try some. :rofl
Talk about your warming. That would do it.
Democracy is two wolves deciding on what to eat. Freedom is a well armed sheep protesting the vote.
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