Global Warming

[EagleDNY]

Originally posted by FastFwd
OK, SmartBoy - let's do some analysis, using your own figures. You have conceded that global warming is happening, and have accepted that greenhouse gases like CO2 are a cause of it. You now say that the earth's atmosphere has a mass of 5,000 trillion tons (that's 5 quadrillion), of which CO2 represents 0.03%.

Let's see how much that is in tons. 1% of 5000 trillion is 50 trillion, or 50,000,000,000,000. CO2 is 0.03% of this, and 0.03% of 50,000,000,000,000 is 1.5 trillion = 1,500,000,000,000.

Now, at the current rate of consumption, Man's CO2 output (from the burning of fossil fuels etc) is 25 billion tons per year - that's 25,000,000,000.

Dividing the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by Man's annual CO2 output (1,500,000,000,000 divided by 25,000,000,000) gives us an answer of 60. In other words, in 60 years, man's CO2 output will be the equivalent of the TOTAL volume of CO2 currently in the atmosphere right now. And remember - CO2 output is set to increase markedly with the industrialization of China. So that 60 years is valid at 2007 levels of CO2 output, but the fact is that Mankind will have DOUBLED the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in around 40 years. Once again, SmartBoy, these calculations are based on your own figures. Oh, the annual 25bn tons of CO2 is a figure that can be found in a number of places - including the US Department of Energy website.

So Mankind is set to double the level of CO2 in the atmosphere in the next ~40 years, and CO2 is a greenhouse gas which traps heat and causes warming. So... do you still maintain that Man is not causing global warming?
 Well, according to your own figures, man is set to double the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in less than 60 years - probably around 40. And we know that CO2 causes global warming. Indeed, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen by 25% in the past 300 years, caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels.

So you don't want to see the world remain static? You want to see all ports in the world submerged under 10ft of water, just as tedrbr said might happen in one of his earlier posts? What effect do you think that would have on US trade and the US economy as a whole?

I think it's time to start looking at what mankind is doing to this planet, and begin acting upon it - instead of taking the stance that there may be a natural warming trend of unspecified magnitude, therefore we need do nothing...

Your calculations fail to take into account the consumption of CO2 over the next 60 years by plants, the ocean, etc.  Your assertion that global CO2 levels are going to double in 60 years due to man's CO2 output is not valid.

1.  Biologic CO2 consumption is not STATIC.  Higher CO2 levels trigger increased plant growth and increased consumption of CO2.  Ask any botanist what happens when you feed CO2 into a plant filled greenhouse.

2.  Chemical CO2 consumption is not static either - higher CO2 levels mean that the chance for a chemical reaction involving a CO2 molecule is similarly increased - whether it is direct absorption by the ocean, or the mating of a CO2 molecule with some other element in a more complex reaction.  

EagleDNY

[LEADPIG]

Yea volcanoes have been doing that for along time Bronk ......but it's something happening NOW ....NOW?  Volcanoes and other earthly means have been happening since before we got here. Whats the NEW variable thats been causing the change???? Well man's pretty new certainly newer to the earth than volcanoes what could he have been up to lately that could be causing this to happen? As far as we know this wasn't happening before in the 11, 12, 15, 17, 18, centuries especially that we know of. Well what's man done been doing lately? Perhaps the industrial revolution, man's use of creating earthly elements and producing fuels and synthetic compounds that were't here before. Perhaps the earth wasn't ready for that, perhaps the earth could not forsee the effects that man could be having and what he might create. Maybe the earths orbit has changed or perhaps the earth is tilting on it's axis due to other orbital permutation forces, i don't know. The sun is getting older, as the sun burns the rest of its hydrogen gasses through nuclear fussion it creates a lighter compound called i forgot, He3, that is lighter in density than the hydrogen compound that exists on the sun naturally this causes the sun to lose some of it's mass all the time thus losing it's density over time causing the sun to have less gravity and alowing the suns gasseous atmosphere to get father and farther from it's center. In approximately 4 billion years the sun's size will increase and is expected to be at least twice it's size covering up the orbit of the planet Venus, this how Red Giant stars and Super Giant stars are produced and is part of the normal star life cycle.  It could be any of these things or other effects we don't even know about. Is it wrong to venture down the road and ask such questions and maybe find the truth. Why do people want to become ignorant of such things and of people who ask such questions? To close your eyes of something denies you the possibility of ever seeing the light. To open them opens them to the possibility of not knowing or knowing. I rather open them and know.

[Hawco]

woohoo! up to 11 pages now, getting closer to my target of 20 pages, should break that by next week hopefully

[Bronk]

Originally posted by LEADPIG
Yea volcanoes have been doing that for along time Bronk ......but it's something happening NOW ....NOW?  Volcanoes and other earthly means have been happening since before we got here. Whats the NEW variable thats been causing the change???? Well man's pretty new certainly newer to the earth than volcanoes what could he have been up to lately that could be causing this to happen? As far as we know this wasn't happening before in the 11, 12, 15, 17, 18, centuries especially that we know of. Well what's man done been doing lately? Perhaps the industrial revolution, man's use of creating earthly elements and producing fuels and synthetic compounds that were't here before. Perhaps the earth wasn't ready for that, perhaps the earth could not forsee the effects that man could be having and what he might create. Maybe the earths orbit has changed or perhaps the earth is tilting on it's axis due to other orbital permutation forces, i don't know. The sun is getting older, as the sun burns the rest of its hydrogen gasses through nuclear fussion it creates a lighter compound called i forgot, He3, that is lighter in density than the hydrogen compound that exists on the sun naturally this causes the sun to lose some of it's mass all the time thus losing it's density over time causing the sun to have less gravity and alowing the suns gasseous atmosphere to get father and farther from it's center. In approximately 4 billion years the sun's size will increase and is expected to be at least twice it's size covering up the orbit of the planet Venus, this how Red Giant stars and Super Giant stars are produced and is part of the normal star life cycle.  It could be any of these things or other effects we don't even know about. Is it wrong to venture down the road and ask such questions and maybe find the truth. Why do people want to become ignorant of such things and of people who ask such questions? To close your eyes of something denies you the possibility of ever seeing the light. To open them opens them to the possibility of not knowing or knowing. I rather open them and know.

Yup and the earth has heated up and cooled in the past also.
Whats your point?

Bronk

[oboe]

Lazs,

Thanks, I do try to be fair.    Yes, I have read that CO2 concentrations increase LAG the temperature rather than LEAD it.    I think this is a significant point and I haven't found an answer to it.    I was quite disappointed that Al Gore's documentary did not address this point.   I'll hold off further criticism of him until I understand more about it.    

Another thing the IPCC 18 pg Summary for Policymakers did not address very well was Solar Radiation.    Again a disappointment.

I don't suggest killing all the cows, and I'll give up steak when they pry the sirloin from my cold dead hand.

I think population control would be a good place to start though.   Fact is, I think overpopulation is the source of practically all our problems.

Not ready to slit throats though.

EagleDNY - your theory of balancing reactions that should counteract any CO2 increases is appealing, but why then are currently we so far above significant historical maximum CO2 concentrations?

[LEADPIG]

Originally posted by Bronk
Yup and the earth has heated up and cooled in the past also.
Whats your point?

Bronk

 Yea so let's just forget the whole thing. If the is earth warming up and this whole thing isn't a joke and man is responsible for it let's just keep doing what were doing. If not, our children will only suffer and we'll be dead anyway so we can laugh at them and point from heaven and their dead rotting bodies will bake in the stifling heat of the environmental armeggeddon we could have stopped......maybe...... If those scientist are wrong, oh well false alarm then. I love it, i guess Einstein was wrong about all that crap he came up with, what a twit Einstein was.

[Bronk]

Originally posted by LEADPIG
Yea so let's just forget the whole thing. If the is earth warming up and this whole thing isn't a joke and man is responsible for it let's just keep doing what were doing. If not, our children will only suffer and we'll be dead anyway so we can laugh at them and point from heaven and their dead rotting bodies will bake in the stifling heat of the environmental armeggeddon we could have stopped......maybe...... If those scientist are wrong, oh well false alarm then. I love it, i guess Einstein was wrong about all that crap he came up with, what a twit Einstein was.

Wow Einstein was global warming theorist?


Bronk

[LEADPIG]

Are you refusing to see my point or are you being serious.

  Guess there's two types of people, those that want to know and go anywhere to find out, and those that sit back while they do it and blame them whether they're right or blame them whether there wrong.

 Leonardo Da Vinca had to write his notes backwards to avoid people like you.

[Bronk]

Lemme guess..
Leonardo Da Vinci was a global warming theorist also?

My problem is you inject way to much emotion into your arguments.

One and two sentence replies set you off frothing at the mouth.
Try a different tact.

Do I believe the earth is warming up?
Probably.
Do I think its our fault?
I think we have a minute contributing factor.
I think solar activity and volcanic activity far outstrip us.

No amount of scare and jumping up and down is going to change my mind.

Bronk

[oboe]

Here's a possible explanation .

Interesting how they don't try to force a "one or the other" explanation, but how both solar radiation and CO2 concentrations work together during warming.

[lazs2]

leadpig.. I recall back a little farther than your 1995 observations and I recall that in the late 60's we had summers that were weeks on end of 105 degree weather and that we have had relatively mild summers of late..  neither of our recolections of local weather is much use to this discussion tho.

you seem to feel that if a scientist comes up with a disaster theory we should "do something about it" just in case.... what should we do about it?   How much are you personaly willing to spend... give me a dollar amount you can live with "just in case"   tell me what we need to do.

Oboe.. the co2 lag/lead explanations all seem sorta thin.. as does co2 causing global warming.   We simply aren't contributing enough to explain the rise in co2 levels..  the sun is making it happen.   It is nature.

As for population control... little sticky there... most european countries are already losing population.. the U.S. is barely holding it's own except for non whites...

So how are you gonna tell china and the hispanic countries to ignore their traditions and religions?   How would you control population?

lazs

[LEADPIG]

Originally posted by Bronk
Lemme guess..
Leonardo Da Vinci was a global warming theorist also?

My problem is you inject way to much emotion into your arguments.

One and two sentence replies set you off frothing at the mouth.
Try a different tact.

Do I believe the earth is warming up?
Probably.
Do I think its our fault?
I think we have a minute contributing factor.
I think solar activity and volcanic activity far outstrip us.

No amount of scare and jumping up and down is going to change my mind.

Bronk

Bronk your probably right on most of that. I do think man has a bit more than a minute contributing factor, probably between 25 and 50% maybe a little more, add that on to the other stuff your talking about. I hope your right man (crosses fingers), we'll see in the next 10 to 50,000 years right lol. As far as scare tactics i don't think the scientist are trying to scare you, they just think they're right and are a bit emotional and worried for man and about the implications. I don't think they're trying to scare anybody. What would that do for them, scientists are more interested in facts and usually don't care about glory seeking. That's why they can lock themselves in a lab and study stuff without worrying about the outside world. Now the media types they might be hyping it, prolly are, those people love their names in lights.  No biggie man

[FastFwd]

Originally posted by EagleDNY
Your calculations fail to take into account the consumption of CO2 over the next 60 years by plants, the ocean, etc.  Your assertion that global CO2 levels are going to double in 60 years due to man's CO2 output is not valid.

No, I haven't failed to take that into account. Plants were absorbing CO2 and thriving quite nicely 400 years ago - long before Man started burning fossil fuels at a rate anywhere close to the rate that exists today. And guess what? Plants were not dying because of a "CO2 shortage". Therefore, I submit to you that the man made CO2 that will be released into the atmosphere over the next ~60 years is in excess of what plants will need to survive.

[Angus]

Originally posted by Bronk
Erm volcanoes have been spewing more crap into the air over a longer period of time.  

Better get some big arsed cat converters and air scrubbers for them.


Bronk

Learn todays lesson.
Volcanoes actually add to what is called "GLOBAL DIMMING". That means COOLING. And anyway, unlike human-related release of CO2, Volcanoes cannot be controlled.

Happy schooldays.

[Debonair]

is there global tint control to go along with thats:D awsome old TV joek by me:aok