There's no way that the exhaust thrust from a Merlin makes up for the fact that it is 700HP short of a turbocharged Allison at 29,000 feet. They're exhaust headers, they're not rocket boosters. Hell, the radiator installation with the boundary layer scoop on the Mustang comes closer to adding enough thrust to make up some of the difference. At 26,000 feet, a Merlin in a P-51D is down to 1100 HP or so, and at 29,000 feet, it's down to just barely 900HP. The "-30" Allison in the P-38L is still making 1725HP at 26,500 feet. And more than that at the Lockheed/Allison ratings of 80" and 3200RPM.
Exhaust thrust can offer SOME measurable gains in speed, in fact, Kelly Johnson wanted to do it with the P-38, but the increased back pressure at the turbocharger cost more HP and speed was decreased. But the exhaust thrust from an engine making 900HP or so won't make up for being short 700HP or more.
The speed of the Mustang had more to do with light weight, reduced parasitic drag, and a drastically more efficient propeller than JUST the Merlin. The Merlin only improved performance at altitude, and in fact, down low, the Allison was more than a match.
It should also be noted that the Allison developed for the P-82 Twin Mustang, with higher compression and a 12 counterweight crankshaft for higher RPM performance and durability is nearly as powerful as a turbocharged Allison from a P-38, without the turbocharger, and extremely durable. And it still didn't have a really good centrifugal supercharger (again, the USAAF and the War Production Board are the reason behind the problem) even then.