Eagler, Fester's looking for working hypothesies, not concluding they are right.
Exploring possibilities and making conclusions with only speculation is the difference between sensible thought and paranoia.
Fester isn't a crackpot, he's pointing out the facts. If he were paranoid-conspiracist, he'd suggest what the shape all those dots are making without factual connections. That's a classic tell-tale of paranoid delusions (obsession with a favorite perceived rorschach pattern rather than an impartial and all-encompassing perspective) that he doesn't have.