Top ranked players actually s***

[BaldEagl]

I was thinking about the recent thread regarding scores, and many players contentions that top ranked players were'nt actually that good.  

I have come up with the following theory after thinking this over.  While I limit my discussion to K/D as an example, it can be applied to most, if not all, statistical catagories.  That said let's talk about fighter jocks and K/D.

First lets assume that there are about 6000 players (approximately correct based on the lowest ranks seen in the arenas although there's probably more with ties among ranks).

That means the 600th ranked fighter pilot would be in the top 10% of all players.  By extension, he should be able to beat 9 out of 10 opponents he comes across, thus carrying a 9:1 K/D ratio (negligably less because of the plus one but we'll ignore that for purposes of this discussion).  

We all know the 600th ranked fighter pilot carrys no where near that K/D ratio but this can be explained in part through random encounter.  If he always ran into the better opponent on his 10th encounter then 9:1 should be accurate but this would rarely be the case.  Theoretically, it could as easily be the 1st, 6th or 8th player he runs across but these encounters should equalize over time, thus reducing the anticipated K/D to 4.5:1.

This is still higher than our actual experience in the game, therefore other factors must be at work.  Since skills among a large group rarely follow a straight line then subscription to the bell curve theory would bring us closer to reality.  While this would be too complex a calculation for me without some substantive data, as I said it would get us closer to reality but probably not there yet.

Let's set aside the bell curve for now.  We'll come back to it in a moment.

By theroy and extension then, if the 600th player should average 4.5:1 K/D then the 60th player should be at 45:1 and the 6th ranked pilot at 450:1.  Finally the top ranked players K/D should equal his # of kills.  

If you are a top ranked pilot and aren't near these numbers, then you must actually s*** and the further you are from these numbers the worse you s***.  The Bell curve theory simply makes these numbers worse the higher up the rankings you go.

So, I can now state with mathematical accuracy that top ranked players actually s***.

to the great masses of AH, you are truly the best among us.

Alternate theories welcome.

[crockett]

There are lots of reasons for bad kill to death ratios.

I wont say I'm a great pilot but I feel I've come a long way, however my kill/death ratio is total crap. IMO I know I could have a much better ratio if I was more careful.

Mine sucks but it's mostly from going on missions or from porking fields. If all I did was furball or dog fight I'd likely have a much better kill/death ratio.

Another thing that really hurts mine, is I fly a lot of different planes, some I'm good in others I totally suck in, but am trying to learn. So I don't just pick my favorite plane all the time.

I also tend to up at capped fields trying to fight off attackers, that tends to get you killed a lot. That's about the only time I ever fly a uber plane is the LA7 when a field is getting attacked and I need something fast.

IMO the guys you see with the great kill to death ratios are guys that are score potatos in most cases. They are the guys that never fly out of their comfort zone and IMO very cautious pilots.. They are typically always part of a hoard.

There are a few exceptions to that of course, but in most cases I find it to be true. So IMO a good kill/death ratio isn't really a great example of someone being good.

[Rino]

I guess if everyone flew timid or never tried to engage without total
advantage then K/D would be a better method of determining skill.

I personally use the "Aw ####!" method.

How quickly after the merge do you say "Aw ####!" knowing that you're
heading to the tower soon

[2bighorn]

Originally posted by BaldEagl
....By theroy and extension then, if the 600th player should average 4.5:1 K/D then the 60th player should be at 45:1 and the 6th ranked pilot at 450:1.  Finally the top ranked players K/D should equal his # of kills....

Flawed... Severely...

Rank/Stats do not say how the players play. It could be 1 vs many or many vs 1. It does not say about risks taken, etc...

That alone makes all your numbers and conclusions about rank and skill irrelevant.

Rank does not tell anything about skill. Nor does K/D.
As such, top ranked player could be one of the best, or just an average stick.

Claim that all high ranked players have no skill is as ridiculous as the claim all high ranked players are the best.

[WMLute]

Just do what I did.

Couple years ago (ish) I tried to keep myself in the top 10 (ish) for @ a year(ish).  At one point I spent about a tour or two trying to get the other players in the top 20 to fight me in the DA.  I say "try" because soooo many wouldn't go.  A few of 'em I had to be pretty abusive to get them to fight me.  Granted, I prob. only dueled 20-30 pilots during that time, not all of them, but I did try to focus on the ones that were ranked at least top 20 month in/month out.

What I found.

None of 'em were much above average in a fight.  I had no issue beating any of them in a 1 on 1 duel.  I never lost a duel.  Not one of the top ranked players at the time were particularly good in a stright up even playing field 1 on 1 battle.

I would hazzard a guess not much has changed.

Best overall rank I achieved was 2nd, and that was a huuuuge pain in the tookus to get.  Not because it's particularly difficult to achieve a low rank, but because it's soooo boring.  All those dull Stuka missions bombing strat got old.  Them PT boat runs creeping close to an nme town to lob a couple rockets .  The constant field captures (boy I woulda milked the heck out of EW/MW) in an m3, then towering out before the troops take so I could up a goon and get the capture in Bomber Mode.  (safer to bring an m3 over a goon.  didn't wanna hurt my bomber score by dying)

Dull Dull Dull.  HUGE yawn fest.

ANYBODY can do it.  ANYBODY can rank top 20 by doing a few simple things.  They are dull, boring, time consuming things, but if you wanna take the time, a top rank can be yours.  None of the things you have to do to get a top rank takes much "talent" what so ever.

Rank?  Y'all can have your ranks.  The only time you will ever see me crack the top 50 is if the night before I had "issues" over CV controll.  (usually only takes me one day to drop into the top 50 or so)

Rank = Skill/Ability is a joke.

[Lusche]

Originally posted by WMLute
Just do what I did.


Best overall rank I achieved was 2nd, and that was a huuuuge pain in the tookus to get.  Not because it's particularly difficult to achieve a low rank, but because it's soooo boring.  All those dull Stuka missions bombing strat got old.  Them PT boat runs creeping close to an nme town to lob a couple rockets .  The constant field captures (boy I woulda milked the heck out of EW/MW) in an m3, then towering out before the troops take so I could up a goon and get the capture in Bomber Mode.  (safer to bring an m3 over a goon.  didn't wanna hurt my bomber score by dying)

Dull Dull Dull.  HUGE yawn fest.
 

You CAN get into top 20 doing all the above thing, but you don't need to.

One tour I tried to see how far up I can push my rank, so I more or less did the things you mentioned and a few more.
It's was strenous, boring as hell and frustrating, cause it was severly limiting me. "No, I can't fly this or that plane, it will lower my k/d. I cant resupply, because my K/T in vehicles will suffer." or similar considerations. It was an experiment and even failed, for amazingly my rank was not much better at all...

[SteveBailey]

Originally posted by 2bighorn
Flawed... Severely...

Rank/Stats do not say how the players play. It could be 1 vs many or many vs 1. It does not say about risks taken, etc...

That alone makes all your numbers and conclusions about rank and skill irrelevant.

Rank does not tell anything about skill. Nor does K/D.
As such, top ranked player could be one of the best, or just an average stick.

Claim that all high ranked players have no skill is as ridiculous as the claim all high ranked players are the best.

Ouch.  Painful to watch.  Someone get Bighorn a pair of pliers and some iodine, that treble hook is in deep.

[ghi]

score=0, selfish, unrealistic arcade, has nothing to do with ww2 air combat

win the WAR!!! = team play, die and sacrifice with pride for country, makes sense, die?! np, up again, a real warrior must have k/d   ratio under 0.1

 long live the toolsheders!

[2bighorn]

Originally posted by SteveBailey
Ouch.  Painful to watch.  Someone get Bighorn a pair of pliers and some iodine, that treble hook is in deep.

Uhh, thx Steve, I owe you one

[uberhun]

I used to be rank driven, but no more. I play for fun fly with my squaddies and could care less about rank. I do a little of everything and am profcient in nothing. but I still have fun. Fly and drive what I want. I don't need to get so tightly wrapped up in a game. It is a diversion not a obssesion.

[VansCrew1]

has a fighter K/D of 10.75   and top ranked players are good,their are some cases where thats not true...  #6 and #7 all they can do is go to 20K pick and run 1v1 on the deck and their nothing specal.

[Husky01]

Originally posted by VansCrew1
has a fighter K/D of 10.75   and top ranked players are good,their are some cases where thats not true...  #6 and #7 all they can do is go to 20K pick and run 1v1 on the deck and their nothing specal.

Wow talk about a extreme case of the Pot calling the Kettle black.

[Roscoroo]

[Platano]

lol i really yawned while scrolling through this

[Husky01]

Originally posted by Roscoroo