Author Topic: Prove global warming is bad, win $125,000.00  (Read 1032 times)

Offline Ripsnort

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Prove global warming is bad, win $125,000.00
« on: October 02, 2007, 08:56:29 AM »
Put your mouth where the money is! :)
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=9127

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2007, 09:10:02 AM »
Yep... what they are saying is...

cut the crap.  No more phony charts and no more hand wringing and beating around the bush... show us the math.   don't show us how good your computer models are at predicting what has already happened... show us next year based on your science.

The fact is that more and more scientists are speaking out and saying that the whole thing is, if not a complete hoax... at the very least highly overstated and hysterical.   Only 6% of all recent peer reviewed scientific papers think that man made co2 will cause a catastrophic rise in temperature.

lazs

Offline Dowding

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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2007, 12:01:38 PM »
Quote
don't show us how good your computer models are at predicting what has already happened... show us next year based on your science.


You seem to fundamentally misunderstand how science works. Theories are based on what is observed to happen, in order to predict future outcomes. "Your science" has to based on what has already happened. All science works that way.
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Offline Maverick

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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2007, 12:07:11 PM »
"Good" or "bad" are subjective values and are not really scientifically based.

If "science" is based only on what has happened, the theoretical areas of it are not possible.

In other words there is room in "science" for the deductive as well as the observation side.
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Offline Dowding

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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2007, 12:49:52 PM »
Theoretical science must eventually be able to explain observable phenomena. It has to be supported by empirical data to be validated. As new data becomes available, a particular theory may be discarded or further validated or modified.

This is a constant, organic process. This is science.

Quote
"Good" or "bad" are subjective values and are not really scientifically based.


I'm not really sure who you are aiming this at.
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Offline Sabre

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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2007, 12:53:31 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dowding
You seem to fundamentally misunderstand how science works. Theories are based on what is observed to happen, in order to predict future outcomes. "Your science" has to based on what has already happened. All science works that way.


I think you might be missing Lazs point, i.e. that so far the predictive power of climate modeling has been poor to dismal.  If a scientific theory (or model) makes predictions and those predictions consistantly fail to materialize, or things happen that are directly contradictory to the predictions, than the theory (or the model) must be disgarded.
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Offline Dowding

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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2007, 01:03:57 PM »
Disregarding the model because you have collapsed the scope of the observation down to an infinitesimally small view compared to the typical, is not really grounds for dismissing the model.

Following that path would have had us disregarding Newtonian physics completely when it was shown to be breaking down at the nanoscopic level. Or at relativistic speeds for that matter. Yet it is useful within the frame of reference it was intended for.

A year in the life of planet Earth could be said to be a nanoscopic observation, if you humour the analogy.

I'm sceptical of man-made global warming as a set-in-stone theory, by the way. But it should not be dismissed because it cannot necessarily predict tomorrows's weather.
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Offline 2bighorn

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Re: Prove global warming is bad, win $125,000.00
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2007, 01:16:48 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort
Put your mouth where the money is! :)
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=9127


Quote
Entrants acknowledge that the concepts and terms mentioned and referred to in the UGWC hypotheses are inherently and necessarily vague, and involve subjective judgment. JunkScience.com reserves the exclusive right to determine the meaning and application of such concepts and terms in order to facilitate the purpose of the contest.


Doesn't look like it's possible to win...
« Last Edit: October 02, 2007, 01:19:29 PM by 2bighorn »

Offline Fishu

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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2007, 01:31:21 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Maverick
"Good" or "bad" are subjective values and are not really scientifically based.


If good and bad means "not harmful to X" and "harmful to X" then I find it to be rather scientifically based values.

However I'd be interested to know what kind of an X they have in mind in this conjuction. Should it be proven that the human induced global warming is harmful (a.k.a bad) to human or to the current environment. The subject matters here, then it's all down to the science to determine whether it could be good or bad to the subject.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2007, 01:35:25 PM by Fishu »

Offline Maverick

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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2007, 01:34:35 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Dowding
Theoretical science must eventually be able to explain observable phenomena. It has to be supported by empirical data to be validated. As new data becomes available, a particular theory may be discarded or further validated or modified.

This is a constant, organic process. This is science.



I'm not really sure who you are aiming this at.


Go back and read what you posted in response to Laz. Here I'll simply paste it here.

"Your science" has to based on what has already happened. All science works that way."

If there is no way to make an observation, is it still science to be investigating a theoretical concept, even mathematically? If it has not happened yet and you are trying to make it happen or just thinking about it, is it still science while you are making the attempt?

Going back to what I said earlier, I believe there is more than simple observation and that the deductive is as applicable to science as the mere observation and description of a phenomenon. No major big deal. If you disagree that's fine.

As to the good vs bad issue. I thought it was pretty self explanatory. No value judgements over a scientific observation. You did read the title of the thread didn't you?

FWIW nothing I posted was meant as a dig or sarcasm but a participation of the discussion. If you chose to take it negatively that way it's something you need to deal with.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2007, 01:37:55 PM by Maverick »
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Offline lazs2

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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2007, 03:10:16 PM »
well... I have no problem with the scientists saying that they have adjusted the models so that they match what has already happened a few years or a few decades back..

What I have a problem with is them saying that the model works now for what happened in the past so therefore it is a good predictor of the future.

A good for instance is... they had to add el nino to get the blip... they had to adjust the parameters...  they leave out clouds for instance or... they have a model that "works" for predicting the past but... when it doesn't pan out for now or a few years ahead... they claim it is 'aerosols" which they admit they don't understand but...  somehow... will not only get right next time but... somehow... are the only thing they "forgot".

Truth is..  the earth is too complicated and too unpredictable to get long range predictions any more than it is to get short range ones.

neither is possible at this time.

lazs

Offline Dowding

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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2007, 04:53:30 PM »
Quote
If there is no way to make an observation, is it still science to be investigating a theoretical concept, even mathematically? If it has not happened yet and you are trying to make it happen or just thinking about it, is it still science while you are making the attempt?


You are describing theoretical physics, if you take theoretical science in its most pure form.

Ultimately, theoretical physicists have to validate their theories - they have to go from mathematical derivation to supporting evidence. This happened with relativity. It happened with quantum physics. They have been validated through repeatable experiment. However, the theories are not 'perfect'. Science isn't by its own definition. There will be adjustments. There will be corrections. There will be complete re-writes.

The problem with Global Warming (TM) is that both sides maintain the other is absolutely wrong. I find both those positions unscientific. Global warming by human activity is a theory still looking for the corroborating evidence. This work needs to continue.
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Offline Yknurd

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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2007, 05:24:29 PM »
Dowding, I have empirical evidence that you are gay.  There is historical evidence.

There, that's science for ya.
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Offline MORAY37

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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2007, 07:21:26 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Yknurd
Dowding, I have empirical evidence that you are gay.  There is historical evidence.

There, that's science for ya.



Lol..empirical evidence huh?  Empirical means directly observable... so that means you got johnny corn-holed by him?  Or did you just stand there and watch?  Interesting use of a word you don't understand.
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Offline AquaShrimp

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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2007, 08:37:16 PM »
Global warming is causing the extinction of many types of coral due to an increase in the temperature of the ocean.  I would like my $125,000 now please.