Author Topic: General Climate Discussion  (Read 106017 times)

Offline lazs2

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 24886
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #735 on: December 05, 2007, 02:48:42 PM »
why buy trouble?   it is great to be alive right now and.. there really is no prediction for next year or 5 years from now sooo... nothing to worry about right?

I mean.. If they really had a clue they would have the nuts to give next years prediction and 5 years from now... Fact is.. every single gloom and doom prediction for the near future has been downgraded.

lazs

Offline Getback

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 6467
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #736 on: December 05, 2007, 02:59:16 PM »
If they were 100% certain that global warming was man made they would have kept calling it Global Warming instead of Climate Change. This was no accident since now if it should cool the doom sayers are still in business.

I can remember as a kid in the 60s they said a bird was in danger because we had justed ended a warming period and now were in a cooling period. Then in the 80s we were heading for an ice age. Now we are back at it again. Bet anyone that between now and 2017 we will be in a cooling period.

  Created by MyFitnessPal.com - Free Calorie Counter

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #737 on: December 05, 2007, 03:06:16 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
why buy trouble?   it is great to be alive right now and.. there really is no prediction for next year or 5 years from now sooo... nothing to worry about right?

I mean.. If they really had a clue they would have the nuts to give next years prediction and 5 years from now... Fact is.. every single gloom and doom prediction for the near future has been downgraded.

lazs



Wrong. A lot to worry about in just my lifespan.

And then there are generations to come. Ever think of that?
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline lazs2

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 24886
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #738 on: December 05, 2007, 03:07:37 PM »
getback..you are of course.. correct.   we will enter a cooling period in the next few years... the suns activity has gone down.. this always happens before a cooling period.

That is why, as you point out.. the weasels are wanting to call it "man made global climate change"   they know as well as we do that they were wrong and it will get cooler.  I am shocked that so many seemingly bight people here are suckered by the whole thing.

Can you imagine how crestfallen they will be when they learn how they have been duped?

lazs

Offline lazs2

  • Radioactive Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 24886
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #739 on: December 05, 2007, 03:09:02 PM »
angus... again.. what are the high priests predicting for next years climate?  5 years from now?   don't you even wonder... just a tiny bit... why they don't tell you?

lazs

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #740 on: December 05, 2007, 03:20:09 PM »
A tad warmer.
Of course we have our "waves". I'd bet that the next "Nino" year will top previous records though.
Just as predicted in the last years actually.
Oh, BTW, I'll jump to my toolshack and get an article about the changes up to date. Some milestone points in there that I'd like opinions on.
BRB.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #741 on: December 05, 2007, 03:22:35 PM »
And....I don't wonder so much about inaccuracy, for when I studied the basics of metreology, I finally understood how "elastic" the whole deal is.
As well as .... absolute on the receiving end.
And ungrateful.

I take my hat of for most of those scientists.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline MORAY37

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2318
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #742 on: December 05, 2007, 11:46:01 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
getback..you are of course.. correct.   we will enter a cooling period in the next few years... the suns activity has gone down.. this always happens before a cooling period.

That is why, as you point out.. the weasels are wanting to call it "man made global climate change"   they know as well as we do that they were wrong and it will get cooler.  I am shocked that so many seemingly bight people here are suckered by the whole thing.

Can you imagine how crestfallen they will be when they learn how they have been duped?

lazs


With what stick will you measure this cooling?  The Pre-solar forcing (cough) one or just by the fact one year is cooler than this one?  I have a feeling you will measure it by the easiest and shortest way you can.  

Look at the effects on the "other" inhabitants on the planet.

Global Warming Wreaks Havoc With Nature

By MICHAEL CASEY

BALI, Indonesia - More than 3,000 flying foxes dropped dead, falling from trees in Australia. Giant squid migrated north to commercial fishing grounds off California, gobbling anchovy and hake. Butterflies have gone extinct in the Alps.

While humans debate at U.N. climate change talks in Bali, global warming is already wreaking havoc with nature. Most plants and animals are affected, and the change is occurring too quickly for them to evolve.

"A hell of a lot of species are in big trouble," said Stephen E. Williams, the director of the Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change at James Cook University in Australia.

"I don't think there is any doubt we will see a lot of (extinctions)," he said. "But even before a species goes extinct, there are a lot of impacts. Most of the species here in the wet tropics would be reduced to ... 15 percent of their current habitat."

Globally, 30 percent of the Earth's species could disappear if temperatures rise 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit _ and up to 70 percent, if they rise 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit, a U.N. network of scientists reported last month.

It wouldn't be the first time. There have been five major extinctions in the last 520 million years, and four of them have been linked to warmer tropical seas, according to a study published last month in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, a British scientific journal.

The hardest hit will include plants and animals in colder climates or at higher elevations and those with limited ranges or little tolerance for temperature change, said Wendy Foden, a conservation biologist with the World Conservation Union, which catalogs threatened species.

Butterflies that lived at high altitudes in North America and southern France have vanished, and polar bears and penguins are watching their habitat melt away.

The carbon dioxide emissions that are a leading cause of global warming also turn oceans more acidic, killing coral reefs and the microscopic plankton that blue whales and other marine mammals depend on for food.

"In the long run, every species will be affected," Foden said.

A few will benefit, chiefly those that breed quickly, already exist in varied climates and are able to adapt swiftly to changing conditions, scientists said. Think cockroaches, pigeons and weeds.

The spread of a deadly fungus that thrives in warmer conditions has decimated some frog populations in South America, Africa and Europe.

Then there are Australia's flying foxes.

More than 3,500 gray-headed and black flying foxes _ huge bats _ died in 2002 after temperatures rose above 107 degrees Fahrenheit in New South Wales, according to a report published last week in the Royal Society B journal.

The rising temperatures are related to global warming, said the author, Justin Welbergen of the University of Cambridge.

"It got really hot and suddenly started raining foxes from the trees," said Welbergen, who witnessed the die-off. "It was quite gruesome. This colony had between 20,000 and 30,000 animals and about 10 percent of those individuals died."

In Australia's Queensland state, temperatures are projected to rise 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, an outcome that could drive half the species to extinction in a mountainous stretch of tropical rain forest, Williams said.

Even a 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit increase would reduce by half the habitat of the Thornton Peak nursery frog, golden bowerbird and the spotted-tail quoll, a cat-like mammal.

"There are many species and plants that are restricted to the higher altitude areas," he said. "It doesn't take much of an increase in temperature to push them off the mountain. They can't go anywhere."

As temperatures rise, animals are seeking cooler climes. In a study of more than 1,500 species, University of Texas biologist Camille Parmesan concluded that 40 percent had shifted their ranges, mostly toward the poles.

A dozen bird species have moved about 12 miles north in Britain, and 39 species of butterflies have shifted north by as much as 125 miles in Europe and North America, according to another study that Parmesan took part in.

Millions of Mediterranean jellyfish have turned up off Northern Ireland and Scotland. The Humboldt squid, which can grow up to 7 feet long, has moved up the California coast as ocean waters warmed.

"It's the latest in a long series of bad news for fishermen," said Stanford University's Lou Zeidberg, adding that squid have been found as far north as Alaska in the past five years.

With warmer weather, 60 percent of plant and animal species are migrating, breeding and blooming earlier in the spring, Parmesan said. But not all are, and that could upset relationships between birds and the insects they feed on as well as insects and the flowers they pollinate.

"Frogs, birds and butterflies are responding more strongly to warming winters and springs than are plants," she said. "The concern is that this will cause population declines for both plants and animals."

With many species unable to evolve fast enough to adapt, conservationists are considering the creation of natural corridors to encourage animals to move and even relocating them to cooler places. The latter is controversial.

"You are effectively playing God. You are effectively changing evolution on purpose," Foden said. "If our job as biologist is to conserve species, then certainly we must move them. But if it's to conserve natural evolutionary processes ... then we have to give them corridors and let them do their thing."

A service of the Associated Press(AP)
"Ocean: A body of water occupying 2/3 of a world made for man...who has no gills."
-Ambrose Bierce

Offline MORAY37

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2318
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #743 on: December 05, 2007, 11:49:28 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
Well, AFAIK, the US mainland is generally not warming, as well as a good chunk of the Asian continent.
But the rest of the globe more or less is, and that's a lot of....area.


No, the US mainland isn't warming.... it's just drying out, exactly as is predicted.
"Ocean: A body of water occupying 2/3 of a world made for man...who has no gills."
-Ambrose Bierce

Offline Holden McGroin

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 8591
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #744 on: December 06, 2007, 12:17:52 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by MORAY37
No, the US mainland isn't warming.... it's just drying out, exactly as is predicted.


]
Quote
Physical arguments clearly indicate that global warming will cause an increase of evaporation from the ocean. Moreover, a warmer atmosphere can carry more moisture, which leads to larger amounts of precipitable water. Global warming will also induce higher temperature differences between the land and sea surfaces, causing an increased transport of precipitable water to the continents, and an increase of convectional rainfall.--- Greenpeace


Quote
According to the predictions presented above an increase of flooding is what we expect as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The recent floods cannot be taken as a proof of climate change as the associated rainfall events still fit in the natural variability of our climate, and floods of comparable magnitude have been observed earlier this century. What can be said is that an increased frequency of unusual amounts of rainfall and floods as we have witnessed over the last decade are consistent with the climate model predictions. --- Greenpeace  
« Last Edit: December 06, 2007, 12:19:56 AM by Holden McGroin »
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline MORAY37

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2318
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #745 on: December 06, 2007, 12:54:51 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
]



I'll post from the actual paper on government assessment of climate change... not GREENPEACE...  you're getting as bad as Laz now.

1:
Brumbelow and Georgakakos’ assessment of the agricultural impacts in the United States
are in agreement with the Canadian climate scenario trends of a wetter climate in the
west, a dryer climate in the east, and warmer temperatures throughout the country.
Depending on which particular factor is most limiting for crop growth over the growing
season (i.e., water availability, temperature, or both) the U.S. agricultural response exhibits
marked regional changes in a west-to-east direction around the 104th meridian for corn, a
north-to-south direction around the 40th parallel for soybeans and durum wheat, and a
northwest-to-southeast direction for winter wheat

2:
The Canadian model results indicate that runoff would decline by 2030 in all
regions except California. In 12 of the 18 regions, runoff declines by more than 20%,
outcomes that could have serious adverse impacts if not addressed by water managers

3:
In the arid and semi-arid western United States, it is well established that relatively
modest changes in precipitation can have proportionally large impacts on runoff. Even in
the absence of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures resulting from
increased greenhouse gas concentrations lead to higher evaporation rates, reductions in
streamflow, and increased frequency of droughts (Schaake 1990, Rind et al. 1990, Nash
and Gleick 1991, 1993). In such cases, increases in precipitation would be required to
maintain runoff at historical levels.

4:
In every one of these studies, an increase in temperature and no change
in precipitation resulted in decreases in runoff. With no change in precipitation,
estimated runoff declines by 3 to 12% with a 2o C increase in temperature and by 7 to
21% with a 4o C increase in temperature. A 10% reduction in precipitation and a 2oC
increase in temperature reduce estimated runoff by between 13 to 40% in most studies.
Increasing precipitation by 10% approximately balances evaporative losses resulting from
an increase in temperature of 4oC
"Ocean: A body of water occupying 2/3 of a world made for man...who has no gills."
-Ambrose Bierce

Offline MORAY37

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2318
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #746 on: December 06, 2007, 01:00:54 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
]


One more.

Quote
Compared to the historical (baseline) response, under the Canadian model results all basins exhibit less precipitation (ranging from 15 to 22% of the historical values), increased evapotranspiration (16 to 22% below historical values), less runoff (28 to 48% below historical values), and smaller runoff coefficients (13 to 35%), below historical values).
"Ocean: A body of water occupying 2/3 of a world made for man...who has no gills."
-Ambrose Bierce

Offline Holden McGroin

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 8591
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #747 on: December 06, 2007, 01:12:04 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by MORAY37
I'll post from the actual paper on government assessment of climate change... not GREENPEACE...  you're getting as bad as Laz now.


I posted from their website because I thought maybe Greenpeace was on board the anthropogenic warming train.

Perhaps not.  

"The actual paper on government assessment of climate change"

That makes it the absolute truth.

My post was to show that your statement that, "it's just drying out, exactly as is predicted."  Is meaninless when there are contradictory predictions.  

Just like a Vegas clairvoyant's magic trick, all you have to do is pick the sealed envelope with the correct prediction and leave the incorrect one unopened.
Holden McGroin LLC makes every effort to provide accurate and complete information. Since humor, irony, and keen insight may be foreign to some readers, no warranty, expressed or implied is offered. Re-writing this disclaimer cost me big bucks at the lawyer’s office!

Offline Angus

  • Plutonium Member
  • *******
  • Posts: 10057
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #748 on: December 06, 2007, 02:10:09 AM »
USA = getting dryer. Didn't name that, but it remains rather out of the warming, - yet. Not forever.
USA=Landmass mostly, - last time i checked.
Climate=mostly continental.
It was very interesting to carry out the flight trials at Rechlin with the Spitfire and the Hurricane. Both types are very simple to fly compared to our aircraft, and childishly easy to take-off and land. (Werner Mölders)

Offline SD67

  • Gold Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3218
Re: General Climate Discussion
« Reply #749 on: December 06, 2007, 03:31:36 AM »
The whole world is getting drier fast.
It probably goes a long way towards this global warming phenomenon.
Less water means less snow.
Even a dry atmosphere around the polar caps will eventually lead to a reduction of the ice caps simply because there is not enough water in the air to make enough snow. Less snow = higher ambient temperature.
Who'd have guessed mankind has drunk itself to extinction :huh
Cheers.
9GIAP VVS RKKA
You're under arrest for violation of the Government knows best act!
Fabricati diem, punc
Absinthe makes the Tart grow fonder