General Climate Discussion

[Jackal1]

In the times of civilization, what is happening now in a very short time, has not been seen before.

Times of civilization is very short within itself.

[pallero]

2. The ocean temp is rising, and as proved that is a factor with some zeros added to the energy of the atmosphere.

Or is it really?  *click*

And what is Argo? *click*

[Angus]

Argo's site seems to disagree with itself then, oh just a moment, the graph isn't from Argos site...
"We are increasingly concerned about global change and its regional impacts. Sea level is rising at an accelerating rate of 3 mm/year, Arctic sea ice cover is shrinking and high latitude areas are warming rapidly. Extreme weather events cause loss of life and enormous burdens on the insurance industry. Globally, 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1860, when instrumental records began, were in the past decade. "

Another one:
All Things Considered, September 21, 2007 · Final data on the shrinking North Pole ice cap confirms that the amount of ice there is the lowest yet recorded, with even less ice than had been reported in August. Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado, tells Melissa Block what the figures might imply.

This record has been broken, and there is a chance that the area will be clear in the autumn, like sept-oct.

Bear in mind that this much melting should actually cool the sea.

What I have on warming though is basically as well here:
"For one, ocean surface temperatures worldwide have risen on average 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0.5 degrees Celsius, and ocean waters in many tropical regions have risen by almost 2 degrees F (1 degree C) over the past century. This is 30 times the amount of heat that has been added to the atmosphere, a significant amount even though the ocean has a lot more mass than the atmosphere"
(ffrom oceans alive)

And total sea ice doesn't say all, since it's increasing in the south. However that's because it's creeping from land. Lookie here:
http://www.care2.com/news/member/327693782/602231

And the NY Times:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E2DC163EF932A2575BC0A9609C8B63&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/Ice

Bottom line, the N.Ice cap is NOW at it historic minimum for a very long time, and is still on a good pace downwards.

[lazs2]

so angus... It appears that even the scientists can't get it the same on if the globe is cooling or heating... that pesky +/- 2 degrees thing...

Can you point me to a site that shows how the "global temp" is measured every year?   what the method is and what areas are measured?   all areas?   satelite data shows that north America has not heated for 20 years... perhaps that data is the most accurate or... north America is not part of the globe?   

If the worlds weather stations are as funky as the ones in the US.. then urban sprawl and concrete and poor maintenance have rendered them almost useless..  most reading higher every year due to poor placement. 

or maybe...   You are telling me that the tree rings or whatever show a half a degree difference?

lazs

[Holden McGroin]

total sea ice doesn't say all, since it's increasing in the south. However that's because it's creeping from land. Lookie here:
http://www.care2.com/news/member/327693782/602231

And the NY Times:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E2DC163EF932A2575BC0A9609C8B63&n=Top/News/Science/Topics/Ice

Bottom line, the N.Ice cap is NOW at it historic minimum for a very long time, and is still on a good pace downwards.

According to http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ the N polar sea ice extent is 1e6 sqkm larger than it was 365 days ago, although a little more than 1e6 sqkm less than the 30 yr average.

[Angus]

Well, they don't all agree now do they?
1e6...now that is 6 million square?
BTW, we now are getting a new glacier lagoon. Good for tourism. Funny in a cooling trend though...

[avionix]

Here is soemthing new for you.

Now some fresh pickings from the Political Grapevine:

Work of Fiction?

A former global warming alarmist and creator of the model that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol says that while global warming is real, there is no evidence that the main cause is carbon emissions. David Evans says that C02 emissions play — at most — a minor role.

Evans writes in The Australian newspaper that if global warming was caused by C02, scientists would have found hot spots about six miles up in the earth's atmosphere over the Tropics. Evans describes those hot spots as the signature of the greenhouse effect. He says scientists have been trying to locate them for years using thermometers attached to weather balloons.

But he says years of research "show no hot spot — whatsoever" adding that "an increased greenhouse effect is not the cause of global warming."

Maybe again, we need to revisit the thought that global warming is cyclical.

[Angus]

Seems to be paddling a tad out of the ordinary then.
Here is something for Holden, just to enhance some thinking in 3 dimensions.
Ice is not just measured in just square, but thickness. Add the fourth dimension, - time.
The N-Ice has been loosing mass. More and more of it is just what froze up last winter.
Lookie:

[pallero]

Lookie:

But still 100% ice.

[Holden McGroin]

Here is something for Holden, just to enhance some thinking in 3 dimensions.

How does one measure ice thickness? 

A daily area measure is taken from orbit and is a much more timely data. You can get altitude measure from orbit and calculate 10% above and 90% below floating ice and get a calculated thickness, but this would be not as accurate as the area measure.

Ice on land would require an accurate survey of the earth below the ice cap.  Is this available? if so how accurate is it?

Area is easily and accurately accounted, volume and mass are calculated and therefore less accurate. 

Is more area of ice this year than last mean good things or bad?

[Angus]

The earth below the icecap is gradually being explored. This is for instance how the "lost squadron" was located.
As for the age of the Ice, I am not sure of the method. This is a multi national effort though.
What I know is that those wo hold each other hand-in-hand.
This absolutely affects things as transport etc.
Since 90% of ice is underseas, it really matters if what is above is a a mere crust or a mountain.
And from above look at cover ...or no cover. A sattelite will se ice or not...

The recent effects around where I live is thinner ice, and it's faster in the drift. The fishing fleet may venture further, and the oil companies are looking further.
The fishing fleet has to hunt further north due to the normal catch going further to their normal temperature.
In the meanwhile we get new sorts from the south, such as "macril or makril??"? in catchable quantities.
Bottom line there is that the fish is moving northwards. A very good temp gauge...?
And the oil seekers aso move further into the north...into grounds that their companies have hired "scientists" claiming that there is no occuring ice retreat.

As for more area of ice this year, I wish your graph had this month. (I hope I have the right graph in my head). Anyway we'll have to wait a month or two. I'll put my money on the 2007 record (which broke the 2005 record?) being beet in 2008.

[Holden McGroin]

As for more area of ice this year, I wish your graph had this month.

The graph from cryosphere, (just a few posts up) stops in mid July...  and starts in mid July last year.  It's pretty much up to date.

[moot]

This article's sounds a little biased, here's what it says though:

-Sea ice is expanding globally, not retreating (especially in the Antarctic)
-he oceans have stopped rising, and actually started to fall; that might be because they “stopped warming 4–5 years ago” according to NASA, based on data from the 3,000 new Argo floats now scattered world-wide.
- The number and intensity of hurricanes, cyclones, and tornadoes hasn’t increased.
-the planet actually began to cool in 2007 and 2008 for the first time in 30 years.
-The net warming from 1940 to 1998 had been a miniscule 0.2 degree C
-There is massive global evidence of a 1,500-year warming cycle, going back 1 million years. It may be driven by the slightly varying distance between the earth and the sun. The sunspot index has had a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s thermometer record since 1860, during this time, the temperature correlation with CO2 is a dismissive 22 percent.

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4025
The website's front page doesn't look impartial, but the above points don't sound falsifiable..

[Angus]

But still 100% ice.

100% OF the ice. It is in % OF the ice. 100% of something smaller is also 100%...

As for the sea Ice, the increase in the antarctic is explained by land Ice sliding into the sea in increasing numbers.
Bear in mind, that in the North, this is happening too, but on a smaller scale. But it's still not enough to hold the fort....

Oh, Holden, about the scopes for measure:
http://www.islandia.is/hamfarir/jardfraedilegt/eldgos/katlamei.html#Botn%20Kötlu
The link shows at the beginning the surface of a glacier, then the bottom.
Surface is GPS measured, the bottom with some special wave equipment, not far from those used on fishing ships.
The charting is made with quite some work, but is quite accurate.
They have been using this technology on the Greenland glacier as well. I guess the biggest intro on the equipment was actually when they found and recovered "Glacier Girl".
Something about the equipment can be found here:
http://www.raunvis.hi.is/~matti/issja/issja.html
Unfortunately notmuch in english though.
Anyway, the device has been applied all over our glaciers as well to quite some extent in Greenland. For climate studies (as well as calibrations) they sometimes drill as well.

[Angus]

Oh, linkie from Images. A bit slow though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S6oyTdkOWc&feature=related