Author Topic: Iranian discontent  (Read 1061 times)

Offline Coshy

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2008, 08:01:59 AM »

1  World 1,025,000,000,000
2  Saudi Arabia 261,700,000,000
3  Canada 178,900,000,000  <-----------------------------------
4  Iran 130,800,000,000
5  Iraq 112,500,000,000
6  United Arab Emirates 97,800,000,000
7  Kuwait 96,500,000,000
8  Venezuela 78,000,000,000
9  Russia 69,000,000,000
10  Libya 38,000,000,000
11  Nigeria 34,000,000,000
12  European Union 28,210,000,000
13  Kazakhstan 26,000,000,000
14  United Kingdom 25,410,000,000
15  Angola 22,880,000,000
16  United States 22,450,000,000


Stupid Bush, he didnt have to invade Iraq to get oil, we could have just taken over Canada. It would have been over in a week or so. But then we would have had to put up with all the Canadains.
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Offline C(Sea)Bass

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2008, 08:04:26 AM »

Stupid Bush, he didnt have to invade Iraq to get oil, we could have just taken over Canada. It would have been over in a week or so. But then we would have had to put up with all the Canadains.

But what if Canada went on strike :lol

Offline Maverick

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2008, 11:53:12 AM »
We DO put up with the Canadians, they're freaking snow birds eh!   :mad: :mad:














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Offline gwano

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2008, 12:45:47 PM »
The problem is there is no real option. No simple answers, no easy solutions.

Biofuels using current technology are not that viable without subsidies, and even with the hoped for breakthroughs will only make a small percentage reduction long term. Perhaps 3 percent of liquid fuel globally and maybe 10 percent or so with US motor fuels (but again supported by our tax dollars to some extent that grows as oil prices drop and that also impacts our food prices (likely to a greater extend because of speculation than true impact).

Oil sands and the Bakken formation etc. are good long term reserves, but only once the cheap oil starts to dry up. We even shut down wells domestically that are in production (but relatively expensive) when the price drops like it did in the 1990s with hydrologic issues that make it difficult to restart them. In fact, one counter to ANWR is that if we did develop it it might offset, to some extent, more expensive domestic production that would be brought off line.

Consumption is about all we can do, and a little bit will go a long way where the market speculation is concerned. But, we actually have to go far beyond even driving more efficient vehicles to get a real impact. Real cultural changing types of things.

Unfortunately, we have to give our money to people who are potentially our enemies. IMO I see the same thing with our relationship with China. Fortunately China still is a communist country with state controlled business and industry that cannot take full advantage of the boost. We (or at least Taiwan) has to hope they are as dependent on us as we have become on them. In the Middle East the Saudi's are manageable unless they get an Ayatollah one of these days. The Iranians are a PITA but they have their own worries as well. Iraq is a flip of the coin Kuwait etc. are fine. The oil princes need us as long as we don't encourage the religious fundamentalists. The silver lining is that we should see an oil glut and prices drop. If we have a real recession then it may be an ugly way to get back to $2 a gallon gas or maybe less. Also, the peak oil theory is a bit weak. So, it's just one of those things. Many countries have something sticking it to them. China has energy and water to deal with.






I guess we are forever under the thumb of opec and are powerless to do anything about it. It's very comforting knowing we are eternally screwed.

Charon for president

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Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #34 on: April 08, 2008, 12:59:32 PM »
Quote
I guess we are forever under the thumb of opec and are powerless to do anything about it. It's very comforting knowing we are eternally screwed.

Charon for president

I'm sorry reality sucks. Maybe if we get enough people together and sit on the lawn in front of the Lincoln Memorial, and hold hands and all wish REAL hard, we can levitate the White House and make the bad men give us our free oil.

Charon

Offline 68valu

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #35 on: April 08, 2008, 02:15:54 PM »
The problem is there is no real option. No simple answers, no easy solutions.

Unfortunately, we have to give our money to people who are potentially our enemies. IMO I see the same thing with our relationship with China. Fortunately China still is a communist country with state controlled business and industry that cannot take full advantage of the boost. We (or at least Taiwan) has to hope they are as dependent on us as we have become on them. In the Middle East the Saudi's are manageable unless they get an Ayatollah one of these days. The Iranians are a PITA but they have their own worries as well. Iraq is a flip of the coin Kuwait etc. are fine. The oil princes need us as long as we don't encourage the religious fundamentalists. The silver lining is that we should see an oil glut and prices drop. If we have a real recession then it may be an ugly way to get back to $2 a gallon gas or maybe less. Also, the peak oil theory is a bit weak. So, it's just one of those things. Many countries have something sticking it to them. China has energy and water to deal with.


I also see china in a similar way. As they continue to develop, they will demand more and more of the global resources. They have somewhat of an advantage on us now, economically as they can produce substandard (by our manufacturing standards) products and sell on the global marketplace to 3rd world countries. We are unable to do that, and thus are losing global marketing abilities.

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Offline gwano

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2008, 02:31:18 PM »
I'm sorry reality sucks. Maybe if we get enough people together and sit on the lawn in front of the Lincoln Memorial, and hold hands and all wish REAL hard, we can levitate the White House and make the bad men give us our free oil.

Charon



I think you are somewhat narrow minded to think that collusion does not exist just because the government says it isn't happening. Isn't it possible that they are part of it?

OPEC produces it and big oil is basically the distribution network.
Too many US dollars invested in foreign oil for the US government not to covertly work with the entities involved.
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Offline Charon

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #37 on: April 09, 2008, 09:35:51 AM »
Quote
I think you are somewhat narrow minded to think that collusion does not exist just because the government says it isn't happening. Isn't it possible that they are part of it?

OPEC produces it and big oil is basically the distribution network.
Too many US dollars invested in foreign oil for the US government not to covertly work with the entities involved.

There certainly is collusion among OPEC countries. In fact these countries may be manipulating some of the newer foreign energy exchanges where there is less transparency. [edit: and this is an area to look into with the oil companies as well] And, the US govt. tries to influence OPEC from time to time and has foreign policy where Oil and OPEC are clearly factors in that policy. But, ultimately high energy prices hurt the US economy and a good US economy trumps any specific special interest the oil industry may enjoy.

There are plenty of enemies to big oil in the US political process -- people who can gain much mileage sticking it to the oil industry. It is also abundantly obvious that the Oil companies cannot, to any significant degree, control low price periods (which can run the better parts of a decade) and to some extent neither can OPEC, since it is not all powerful among oil suppliers or even within itself.

I am very open minded on the issue actually. I have spent a lot of time over the past 7 years or so seeing if what appeared to be smoke really was smoke, and if there was any fire beyond that. That includes talking to some of the nationally recognized consumer advocates who testify in front of Congress on the issue. I still review new findings and theories. But over that time, most of what I’ve seen have been emotional reactions among consumers who usually have no understanding at all about how such a commodity works in the markets, politicians grandstanding to play on those emotional reactions, and the FTC confirming what logic would dictate. You see knee jerk political actions like price controls being promoted by ignorant legislators (one of whom said “I can’t understand how a hurricane in the gulf can impact the price of gasoline here in the Northwest!) that not even the consumer advocates would consider to be a good idea.

If you look at how refiners operate, and how the major integrated oil companies operate, you see decisions that do not really reflect a “happy days are here forever” attitude. They know the markets will swing, and when that happens they will take it in the shorts and nobody will be holding show trial committee hearings in Washington on how to improve the industry’s comparatively dismal profits.

The reality I have come to see is that Oil prices are driven by basic supply and demand issues, and that your typical commodity investment forces react and over react to the fundamentals just like any other commodity. The added complication to this is international politics – and that’s a big one. What do you bet the markets are nervous about Iran’s decision to put online 5000 new centrifuges to process uranium? Whether we respond or not militarily the market will likely adjust to that.

Could I be misguided? Absolutely. I know more about the industry than most people in the US, but that's not saying much. And there are plenty of people who know a lot more about it than I do. And, I have been wrong (very wrong in some cases) about a lot of things over the years. My ignorance is boundless. But, I'm pretty easy to convince I'm wrong if facts and logic dictate that. So far I haven't seen anything that would suggest any major power among the oil industry itself to do more than make money when the markets dictate, and make far less money (compared to many other industrial sectors) when the markets dictate otherwise.

Charon
« Last Edit: April 09, 2008, 09:42:28 AM by Charon »

Offline ROX

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2008, 10:10:56 AM »
Once upon a time, there was a an obnoxious kid at school.  He was rather small in stature, but seemed to enjoy egging on the far bigger kids who were stronger and had a history of defending themselves.

The bigger kids seemed to laugh at first, then tried to ignore the pest...not wanting to be known for smacking around smaller kids just because they could.

The obnoxious kid even threatened kids smaller than him...the "Napoleon Complex" growing bigger every day.

The obnoxious kid kept up the tirades, eventually to a point of doing everything possible to draw a fight from one of the bigger kids.

Finally, the day came that one of the bigger kids--sick and tired of the little obnoxious runt's tauntings-- and having obnoxious kid up in his face everyday--that he reached out with one punch and knocked the obnoxious kid to the ground, bloody nosed, the obnoxious kid got up and ran away, crying.

The obnoxious kid turned into a pretty good kid after that.





Khaddaffy learned his lesson after he found out that US forces could bloody his nose at will, and we didn't use stealth technology on Lybia.

Iran's Ahmattionpotato might sing a different tune if he got his nose bloodied.


ROX

Offline Nilsen

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Re: Iranian discontent
« Reply #39 on: April 09, 2008, 10:58:53 AM »
I ran the numbers in a statitistics program. If oil consumption remained at its current level we would use all known oil sources up in 71.4 years, However oil consumption does not remain level. As resources become lower, prices go up, and consequently consumption goes down. Inserting a basic function of that into the model we have about 800 years left, but in 80-100 years from now the only viable uses for oil will be for making critical plastics, like those used in medical supplies.

But also keep in mind that even as prices rise and current users cut down, other markets consume more even with a rise in price. India, Pakistan, Russia China etc etc. Total consumption will continue to go up.