I think the Syrians see things differently, and they are probably not much interested in what you think is "likely".
Am I to assume that you speak for the Syrians? Are you Syrian? What do you know of what Syrians think? How do you know this? 
What I feel is 
"likely" has every bit as much weight as what you 
"think" the Syrians are interested in because like me, you 
really don't know.
Mark