Author Topic: What caused the US Housing market collapse?  (Read 1412 times)

Offline BGBMAW

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2008, 12:45:30 PM »
Yes...the banks lent money like idiots..well kind of..now we have the tax payers bailing out the banks...arghhh



it was the Mighty NINJA LOAN!!!  No Income No Job No Assets   a group of lenders was handing out money to anyoen with a pulse

Im in great shape, Im a broker representing Bank Owned properties...we are on fire selling homes right now..Investors and First time home buyers are reaping the benefits...lowest mortgage rate in 30 years is a good thing   there is a very large chunk of folks paying cash for homes out here...its amaizng to see folks pay 2-3-400k cash....
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Offline SteveBailey

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2008, 12:49:50 PM »
Correct, Correct, and Correct.


In addition to (and probably more significant) bailing out the people who took out these mortages, they should be made to suffer the consequences of

Give me one example of the govt bailing out someone with these mortgages, please.

I believe Straffo is correct.

Offline 33Vortex

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2008, 12:50:31 PM »
CASH is god, especially in a economy like the US. CASH is what runs the world.

FACT



Edit: Who controls the CASH then you think?
« Last Edit: June 09, 2008, 12:53:35 PM by 33Vortex »

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Offline SteveBailey

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2008, 01:02:58 PM »
Yes...the banks lent money like idiots..well kind of..now we have the tax payers bailing out the banks...arghhh


This is what really pisses me off. We are bailing out the banks... why not save the home owners before they lose their home?  If we did this, home values would decline less because neighborhoods wouldn't be filled with foreclosed homes. Sure you could  argue that the homeowners made their own bed and should take their medicince but by that token, shouldn't the banks as well?

It's infuriating.

Offline Kaw1000

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2008, 01:03:30 PM »
Wrong.  The construction industry is what it always has been.  Except for the very large guys (which even then it still affects them greatly), the industry comes and goes as the value of houses goes up, and the inflation goes down (or doesn't rise as quickly).

The problem wasn't with the number of houses, but the sizes.  People were trying to live beyond their means at all levels.  An upper middle class family of 4 doesn't need a 4500 square foot new house to live.  And unless they actually have the money they shouldn't go for it.  For the same reason that a lower class person shouldn't try to get a smaller house under a sub prime loan.

People got burnt all the way around*.  Hopefully they'll have learned from it.


*That is except for the biggest companies in home production and sales.  A lot of them like Toll, Ryan, and Pulte had a bad habit of putting up a house that should have cost $300 to build, for $200, and selling them for $600 to $1,500.  They'll take a hit to their enormous profit margins, but not much else.
I dont know where you live ...but in my community, houses were being built in every nook and crany they could find....We have streets here that not one house is being built....supply and demand....too many houses not enough folks to buy them.you may be right about the size though...more like the price too!
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Offline lasersailor184

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2008, 01:48:40 PM »
I didn't say that houses weren't being built.  It's just that they aren't currently profitable for small builders.  Big outfits can still put up lots of crappy houses and make decent profits.


But these companies aren't going to stop construction on houses already being built.  They are going to finish them knowing that sometime in the future they will sell.  They probably won't start many more until the market picks up.

Or at least they'll start building smaller or more economical houses to compete with the lowered prices of foreclosed homes.
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Offline Thruster

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2008, 02:54:39 PM »
I find it hard to  imagine anybody being surprised that the market has turned as it has. Any first year economics student can define the elements that conspired to develop this recent "crisis".

Low rates, consumerism, poor oversight, delusional optimism, even C.E.O compensation factored into our allowing our domestic R/E market to get way over leveraged. As far as the prime culprit, I'd say delusional optimism and shareholder hypersensitivity are the most culpable. But just as a fire burns out when the fuel is spent the overheated market is now out of fresh kindling. It will correct in time but it may be a bloody march until then for some. For others it's a great opportunity.

Offline bj229r

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2008, 08:09:29 PM »
In the govt's view, bailing out a few lending institutions was cheaper than the national grief caused by a run on ALL the banks. How and why that situation was allowed to happen is what needs to be discussed
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Offline Simaril

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2008, 08:40:12 PM »
I think it's more than just who gets the bail out money.

Whether we like it or not, modern economic systems run on credit. That's partly why growth happens so consistently in the developed world -- if I have a great business idea, I don't have to save up ALL the money before starting it. I can gather some seed money, and borrow the rest to get the thing jump started. That's the whole idea behind a "business plan", which I understand entrepreneurs need to develop and present to the bank before getting their loan. In short, the bank is supposed to assess the likelihood of success before lending the money, to make sure the bankers have a good chance of getting their money back.

Which is how its supposed to work.

The reason the banks are getting support is simple. It's not that the fat cats get money, its that without access to credit, economic growth dries up. That means fewer business starts, less expansion of current business, and less opportunity for recovery. On top of the "whole economy" effects, Inadequate growth directly affects the regular guys up and down the street ---

1. A flat economy drives down wages. Our population is growing, so when new jobs dry up there's an increasing supply of workers relative to jobs -- and competition for jobs drives down wages. Supply and demand...

2. Flat economy means less demand for everything, which cuts jobs further. When times are tight, people buy less...and they get conservative even when they think times MIGHT get tight. When purchases go down, producers need fewer workers, and after layoffs the times get even tighter.

3. Since demand for stuff drops, the prices end up falling. Even companies that stay afloat end up seeing lower profits (fewer sales, and less profit per sale). Lower profits mean belt tightening for them, and belt tightening for them means job loss for us -- layoffs, etc.

4. More layoffs means more unemployment. More unemployment means less demand for goods and services, which means less production needed, which means more layoffs....



From what I've read, the government KNOWS it stinks to bail out the risk takers who created this mess. (Here I'm talking about the policy guys and economists, not the politicians who spend their days strutting like peanoodles on display.) But the alternative to the bailout could be -- for real -- a world wide depression,  not just some recession. If not handled properly this mortgage crisis could lead to an honest to goodness economic meltdown.  Bailing out individuals who borrowed too much doesnt have direct economic impact, so its money down the drain...but bailing out lenders keeps them solvent, which keeps other lenders from panicking and completely shutting down THEIR loans, which keeps the economy from sliding into disaster.

It's ugly, and its not "fair" but there may not be an alternative
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Offline BTW

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2008, 09:07:44 PM »
Would like to hear what you got to say about this. Why did the US housing market collapse??? I live in Europe and would like to hear from US citizens your opinion on this.

ARM's would get my vote. And the housing market hasn't collapsed :) Its stagnant in most places, but its not collapsing :) Thats American media propaganda.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2008, 09:09:48 PM by BTW »

Offline Hajo

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2008, 09:44:12 PM »
Really what happened was greed.  Bank lending money.......then figuring they could sell the Mortgage.

Those that bought the Mortgages....to make money of course got burned.

Dumbest thing I ever saw was to purchase something with a floating interest rate.
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Offline Reschke

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #26 on: June 09, 2008, 10:14:16 PM »
Would like to hear what you got to say about this. Why did the US housing market collapse??? I live in Europe and would like to hear from US citizens your opinion on this.

My version is that the US government let an organization like the Fed take control of something that it has no reason to run....the interest rates....This caused massive shifts in US Tbills not being purchased by overseas investors to keep the USD strong against other currencies. That was one of the reasons that the Euro and several other currency's have over taken the USD as the benchmark currency for the transactions of the world. Letting this same organization continue to have control is not good for anyone...shades of 1929 coming sooner than we want to believe in my opinion.

But what do I know...I took advantage of the interest rate situation but I intended to stay in it until it was paid for or until I had to upgrade...unfortunately for me or fortunately depending on how you read the next part we sold that house after two years since we were due to have our third and final child and the mother in law was moving in. SO now we have a large house with a larger 30 year mortgage and three outstanding kids.
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Offline FrodeMk3

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2008, 10:15:00 PM »
I think it's more than just who gets the bail out money.

Whether we like it or not, modern economic systems run on credit. That's partly why growth happens so consistently in the developed world -- if I have a great business idea, I don't have to save up ALL the money before starting it. I can gather some seed money, and borrow the rest to get the thing jump started. That's the whole idea behind a "business plan", which I understand entrepreneurs need to develop and present to the bank before getting their loan. In short, the bank is supposed to assess the likelihood of success before lending the money, to make sure the bankers have a good chance of getting their money back.

Which is how its supposed to work.

The reason the banks are getting support is simple. It's not that the fat cats get money, its that without access to credit, economic growth dries up. That means fewer business starts, less expansion of current business, and less opportunity for recovery. On top of the "whole economy" effects, Inadequate growth directly affects the regular guys up and down the street ---

1. A flat economy drives down wages. Our population is growing, so when new jobs dry up there's an increasing supply of workers relative to jobs -- and competition for jobs drives down wages. Supply and demand...

2. Flat economy means less demand for everything, which cuts jobs further. When times are tight, people buy less...and they get conservative even when they think times MIGHT get tight. When purchases go down, producers need fewer workers, and after layoffs the times get even tighter.

3. Since demand for stuff drops, the prices end up falling. Even companies that stay afloat end up seeing lower profits (fewer sales, and less profit per sale). Lower profits mean belt tightening for them, and belt tightening for them means job loss for us -- layoffs, etc.

4. More layoffs means more unemployment. More unemployment means less demand for goods and services, which means less production needed, which means more layoffs....



From what I've read, the government KNOWS it stinks to bail out the risk takers who created this mess. (Here I'm talking about the policy guys and economists, not the politicians who spend their days strutting like peamanthings on display.) But the alternative to the bailout could be -- for real -- a world wide depression,  not just some recession. If not handled properly this mortgage crisis could lead to an honest to goodness economic meltdown.  Bailing out individuals who borrowed too much doesnt have direct economic impact, so its money down the drain...but bailing out lenders keeps them solvent, which keeps other lenders from panicking and completely shutting down THEIR loans, which keeps the economy from sliding into disaster.

It's ugly, and its not "fair" but there may not be an alternative

That's a fair synopsis, Simaril. The only thing I would add to it is to factor in inflation. When Prices for base needs' for the average family, such as Housing or fuel go up, Everything else starts' to go up around the board.

Skyrocketing Housing prices didn't help. But one of the base factors' in our modern economy, fuel, is really starting to tell. Retailers, having to pay more to have their goods' shipped, are having to charge more. Thusly, the price of living goes up, wages' hike as needed...You see how th vicious circle isn't really a circle at all, but a spiral.

Offline DREDIOCK

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2008, 10:19:13 PM »
Answer:  People treating the housing market like the stock market.

If you or I invest a bunch of money in the stock market, and that stock tanks, we lose our investment.  In the case of the housing market, the stock people were investing in was the roof over their head.

People who in no way should have been able to qualify for a mortgage, were given adjustable-rate (or interest-only) mortgages on the assumption that the housing market would continue to climb at yearly double-digit rates of return.  The house they planned on selling after 3 years and raking in a 25% - 50% return on their investment suddenly was worth no more than the day they bought it.  Not only that, but their mortgage payment increased 50-100% when the interest rate reset after that 3-year period.  Suddenly unable to pay their mortgage (ie. living beyond their means), banks foreclosed.

Yup thats it.

Houses. Is alot like the stock market.
Your better off investing in stock for the long term and not the short term gain
Unless your a day trader.
And very good at it.

Example. I bought my house at $127K 15 years ago. Other houses in the neighborhood just like mine were going for 135 at the time.
Mine was a fixer upper/uckily Im pretty handy with most things and was able to do the work myself.

But even now with the market the way it is. My exact same house is currently selling for $300-325K.

At the markets height it was selling for almost 400K

Those who bought at the markets height thinking the market would just keep going up cant get what they paid for it now.
While I can still sell my house for almost 3 times what I paid for it.

Also I was smart enough at the time to insist on a fixed rate even though way back when  initiallyI could have gotten an adjustable at a cheaper rate.

Personally I'd rather know what my payments are going to be every month rather then count on the whims of the market. Even if it means initailly paying more.

In hindsight I was completely correct inasmuch as the market has swung back and forth. In the end I probably saved myself tens of thousands of dollars.

Sometimes your better off beng the tortoise.

And another way housing is like the market.

You dont loose money unless you sell low
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Offline Simaril

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Re: What caused the US Housing market collapse?
« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2008, 10:49:18 PM »
OK< now I have to laugh.

The cuss word filter took changed what I typed == "PeacoKK" (mispelled to avoid a repeat) and turned it into "peamanthings"

 :lol :lol
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