"I would not call an Obama win a certainty. If you remember, the same was said about Gore, and then Kerry. I don't think Obama is any better than the two previous candidates. Further, only Congress has a lower approval rating than Bush, and honestly, people are just as pissed at the new do nothing majority in Congress as they are Bush."
Only if you think the conservatives will jump behind McCain. I don't think so. There are a lot of middle of the road Republicans upset right now and if they fail to vote that is nearly a vote for Obama.
Iraq has improved dramatically, to the point where Afghanistan has a higher casualty rate for the past two months than Iraq. And it was staying in Iraq, and dedicating MORE troops that made it happen, not the program Democrats endorsed
Regardless of reason, and no matter who is elected, the US military will probably draw down in Iraq next year. "Its not too big a stretch to see that Afghanistan/Pakistan will become the focus point."
"Only since the Democrats have taken a majority in Congress has the economy even begun to falter, and then mostly due to oil prices, which again only began after the Democrats gained their majority. The economy has slowed, we have not yet even reached the point of a recession. The economy has always been cyclical and always will be. That oil has more than doubled in price in the last year or so and not plunged us into a depression is testament to the actual strength of the economy."
The Democrats will gain some more houses. That's my assessment. They probably won't gain the necessary 60 votes in the Senate though. Probably pick up like 4 or 5 more seats. Some of the strongest Republican seats are in jeopardy IE; Virginia(John Warner Retired). Trent Lott's seat will probably stay Republican though thats not a certainty. Best expert estimates are that the Dem's will gain 4 definitely and possibly as many as 6. As for the economy; it was more a result of higher oil prices and the dropping dollar than the change over in the Congress. Destabilization of the middle east and oil production, speculation to name a few problems. GDP slowing.
"Just like Gore and Kerry before him, Obama SHOULD win, given what we are "TOLD" about "public opinion". But it didn't work out that way the last two times."
I liked McCain in 2000 but since then I've soured on him. I never thought that Kerry was strong candidate. Nor did most people. He was too far left. Most experts predicted close race and it was; 49/51. Gore.. well that election was settled by the judiciary.
The last two races were close and if that trend continues 5% of the Republicans not voting will make a difference. Given that Obama is drawing record crowds and McCain lower than expected crowds. Could very easily be a landslide for Obama.