United States proven oil reserves declined to a little less than 21 billion barrels (3.3×109 m3) as of 2006 according to the Energy Information Administration, a 46% decline from the 39 billion barrels (6.2×109 m3) it had in 1970 when the huge Alaska North Slope (ANS) reserves were booked. With production of around 5 million barrels per day (790×103 m3/d) as of 2006, this represents about an 11 year supply of oil reserves at current rates of production.
If the United States had to supply its entire demand of 21 million barrels per day (3.3×106 m3/d) without resorting to foreign imports, existing US reserves would last only three years at the current rate of consumption.
No oil fields of similar size to the ANS reserves have been found in the US since 1970. With over 2.3 million wells having been drilled in the US since 1949,[43] there are very few unexplored areas left where a similar size oil field is likely to be found.[citation needed] US oil reserve numbers are very accurate compared to those of most other countries.
As a result of the decline in reserves, United States crude oil production also has been declining for nearly 30 years. Production peaked in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day (1.53×106 m3/d), but declined 47% to 5.1 million barrels per day (810×103 m3/d) by 2006. At the same time, US imports of oil and petroleum products increased by 400% from 3.4 million barrels per day (540×103 m3/d) in 1970 to 13.6 million barrels per day (2.16×106 m3/d) in 2006. The largest suppliers of oil and products in 2006 were Canada and Mexico, which supplied 2.3 and 1.7 Mbbl/d (370×103 and 270×103 m3/d), respectively.[44]
Imports of oil and products account for nearly half of the US trade deficit. As of 2007, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy projected that in 2007 oil consumption would rise to 20.9 million barrels per day (3.32×106 m3/d), while oil production would fall to 5.1 million barrels per day (810×103 m3/d), meaning that oil consumption would be nearly four times as high as oil production.[45]
In April 2008, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released a report giving a new resource assessment of the Bakken Formation underlying portions of Montana and North Dakota. The USGS believes that with new horizontal drilling technology there is somewhere between 3.0 and 4.5 billion barrels (480×106 and 720×106 m3) of recoverable oil remaining to be discovered in this 200,000 square miles (520,000 km²) formation that was initially discovered in 1951. If accurate, this reassessment would make it the largest continuous oil formation ever discovered in the U.S.[46] However, it would represent only a five to seven month supply of oil for the United States at current (2007) rates of consumption.
A 1993 United States Geological Survey (USGS) study indicated at least 4.3 billion (95% probability) and possibly as much as 11.8 billion (5% probability) barrels (0.9 to 2.5 km³) of technically recoverable oil exists in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 area, with a mean value of 7.7 billion barrels (1.7 km³). In addition, in the entire assessment area, which covers not only land under Federal jurisdiction, but also Native lands and adjacent State waters within 3 miles (5 km), technically recoverable oil is estimated to be at least 5.7 billion (95%) and as much as 16.0 billion (5%) barrels (0.7 to 1.9 km³), with a mean value of 10.4 billion barrels (1.2 km³). Economically recoverable oil within the Federal lands assuming a market price of $40/barrel (constant 1996 dollars - the highest price included in the USGS study) is estimated to be between 3.4 billion (95%) and 10.4 billion (5%) barrels (0.5 to 1.7 km³), with a mean value of 6.8 billion barrels (1.1 km³). A May 2008 assessment by the EIA estimated cumulative production of the 1002 area to be a maximum of 4.3 billion barrels from 2018 to 2030. This estimate is a best case scenario of technically recoverable oil during the area's primary production years if legislation were passed in 2008 to allow drilling.[47]
Every body has to realize that the end of crude is near.
