All the democrats had to do was run a bluedog Democrat and they would probably be ahead by 20 points or more right now. A lesson they should have learned after Kerry.
Charon
As of right now. MORE
Obama 281 McCain 230 Ties 27

Mccain has an outside chance of stealing NJ.
But ONLY if he doesnt come across as a typical republican.
Speaking as one who lives here and see's it every day.
In NJ Bush is McCains absolute worst enemy.
Right now alot of people really,really dont like Obama.
But they absolutely LOATH Bush. and they equate the Republican party with Bush as though they were one and the same.
For alot of them A vote for Obama is still a vote against What they perceive as being Bush republicans.
They will hold their noses and vote for Obama if McCain comes across as being a Bush supporter too much.
Alot of folks want a reason to vote against Obama. And I dont think it will take a whole lot to get them to hold their noses and vote McCain
But they will NOT tolerate another Bush like republican.
I suspect the same may be true in NY and PA as well. though I dont live theire so I dont have my finger on the same pulse.
But thats 67 electoral votes potentially up for grabs.
McCains being a Maverick and not always going with his base is his single largest asset here.
He's gotta come across as being not like Bush
Playing to his base will only hurt him
The biggest thing here that McCain has to do is pander to the middle and distance himself from anything Bush