Stats, ENY, and Perks

[Anaxogoras]

Below you will see a couple of charts I made today to distract myself from a slight New-Year's hangover.

For the first chart, I've always wondered what ENY would look like if it were based on something a little more objective than a gut feeling or ad-hoc judgment.  So I grabbed that stats from December's tour, and came up with a way to calculate ENY based on the frequency of use and effectiveness of each aircraft.  The formula is like this:

36.63/(% of total kills+deaths x K/D ratio)

36.63 was chosen because it gives an ENY of 20 to the average %totalkills/deaths x the average K/D ratio.  The results show how little use and what little success a lot of our aircraft have in the late war main arena, almost to the point of absurdity.  If a floating ENY system were put in place, re-calculated at the end of every tour, the bottom performers' popularity for perk farming would immediately reduce their ENY after one or two tours.



My other charts show perked aircraft and vehicles, specifically, they are ranked according to an estimated cost per kill.  That is, how many perks the average player spends on that aircraft or vehicle to get one kill:



Clearly the Spitfire XIV and T-34/85 should either cost less, or the price of other aircraft and vehicles should be increased.

[BaldEagl]

I'm at 15 kills and 1 death in the Spit XIV over the last two days.  That's only $1/K and I should be at 0 deaths as I augered on my own.

Clearly the XIV is flown by n00bs.

[Zazen13]

I've done something like this just for my personal curiosity. The problem you run into is twofold.

1) Some planes, especially those launched from CV's (ie: Spit V, F6F, Zeke's etc.) and those Jabo's used in Bish kiddie zerg-horde, "Hey mom look at my base count!" (ie: P38s, Ponies, Typhoons etc.), missions, are extremely overrepresented statistically far beyond their actual involvement in normal day to day, strictly air to air, combat operations in the MA.

In order to really have an analysis of this type mean anything the first step would be to be able to parse those statistics as to how they were scored, either fighter or attack. For the purpose of proper ENY vs. planes you'd just use the Fighter sorties and for the vs. Objects the Attack sorties. Of course, some will score a sortie as attack even if not ground pounding and vice-versa, but it would go a long way to make this chart more meaningful.

2) The K/D of certain planes are heavily skewed for three main reasons in certain planes.


a) Name recognition; every noob in the game recognizes the plane and learns AH flying it because they saw how great it is supposed to be on the History Channel. Thereby skewing its K/D far lower than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual relative performance compared to the rest of the plane-set and handled by proportionately more veterans.

b) Some planes no noob has likely ever heard of prior to AH are so incredibly "hyper-modelled" that they quickly decide that it will be their "training-wheels" ride (ie: La7, Niki, etc.), thereby skewing its K/D far lower than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual relative performance compared to the rest of the plane-set and handled by proportionately more veterans.
.

c) Planes that are otherwise lackluster in a variety of key ways, appeal to incredibly experienced and seasoned vets, for various reasons, who's combat efficiency surpasses what the average person in that same plane would be capable of exponentially...Thereby skewing its K/D far higher than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual performance relative to the rest of the plane-set and handled by a more ubiquitous demographic of players, including noobs.

[Anaxogoras]

I've done something like this just for my personal curiosity. The problem you run into is twofold.

1) Some planes, especially those launched from CV's (ie: Spit V, F6F, Zeke's etc.) and those Jabo's used in Bish kiddie zerg-horde, "Hey mom look at my base count!" (ie: P38s, Ponies, Typhoons etc.), missions, are extremely overrepresented statistically far beyond their actual involvement in normal day to day, strictly air to air, combat operations in the MA.

In order to really have an analysis of this type mean anything the first step would be to be able to parse those statistics as to how they were scored, either fighter or attack. For the purpose of proper ENY vs. planes you'd just use the Fighter sorties and for the vs. Objects the Attack sorties. Of course, some will score a sortie as attack even if not ground pounding and vice-versa, but it would go a long way to make this chart more meaningful.

I actually like that ground pounding is included in these results, as ENY is not supposed to only reflect air-air ability.  For example, the F4U-1D has a much lower K/D ratio than the F4U-1A, but still ends up with a lower ENY because of its high use.

2) The K/D of certain planes are heavily skewed for three main reasons in certain planes.


a) Name recognition; every noob in the game recognizes the plane and learns AH flying it because they saw how great it is supposed to be on the History Channel. Thereby skewing its K/D far lower than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual relative performance compared to the rest of the plane-set and handled by proportionately more veterans.

b) Planes no noob has every heard of prior to AH are so incredibly "hyper-modelled" that they quickly decide that it will be their "training-wheels" ride (ie: La7, Niki, etc.), thereby skewing its K/D far lower than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual relative performance compared to the rest of the plane-set and handled by proportionately more veterans.
.

c) Planes that are otherwise lackluster in a variety of key ways, appeal to incredibly experienced and seasoned vets, for various reasons, who's combat efficiency surpasses what the average person in that same plane would be capable of exponentially...Thereby skewing its K/D far higher than it otherwise would be if it were based upon its actual performance relative to the rest of the plane-set and handled by a more ubiquitous demographic of players, including noobs.

To that I say, "let the chips fall where the may!"   This ENY system is not an attempt to objectively reflect all aspects of aircraft performance.  Rather, it creates a scheme from frequency of use and k/d, and it's my hope others would agree that's an improvement over gut feeling and ad-hoc judgment.

Edit: it's also important to point out that these values are not set in stone, but would change from tour to tour.  What they might look like after 5-10 tours is likely much different than what we see above.

[Nightshift82]

What happened to number 41 on the chart?

[Anaxogoras]

What happened to number 41 on the chart?

Nice catch! There should be 54 total, not 55.

[StokesAk]

What happened to number 41 on the chart?

Night has attention to detail 

[Anaxogoras]

Here's another way to calculate ENY based on the same principles but with more familiar results:

(35/[(% of total kills+deaths)(k/d ratio)]^2+1)+5

This way the data shown in the original chart has been squished to asymptotically approach 40 and have a minimum value of 5.

Rounding off the results, here's a little chart that compares what ENY would be with how HTC has it now:

[Delirium]

Are you seriously considering dropping the P38J's ENY to 7? 

Few fly the G so it is a non issue.

The L is often flown by ground pounders/base takers and suffers a higher loss rate.

The majority of the P38 sticks fly the J making it appear it is much better than it really is.

Bah, it doesn't matter anyway... Vanscrew has a better chance of losing his virginity than this ENY system has of being implemented.

[Boozeman]

Your second chart looks much better than the first, but there are also some strange results.

Basically if certain AC types have a (percieved?) better model available, the usage of the "lesser" model drops dramatically, much more than the deficite (if there really is any) in perfomance should suggest. I dont know if there should be any ENY bargains that only get there because thier usage is low.

Here are some examples:

F4U-1 (31) vs. F4U-1A (8)
I really dont see why someone should earn almost 4x the perks just for choosing the F4U1 instead of the -1A. There is so little difference in overall performance between the two (except popularity).


P-51B (28) vs. P-51D (5)
Same as above. Is mainly the lack of 2 x .50s worth almost 5x the amount of perks? I think no.


La-5 (34) vs. La-7 (7)
While the La-5 may be down on on speed and firepower on the 7, again, getting almost 5x the perks for nearly the same effort seems far off the scale.

Here some other "oddities", also caused by the lack of usage:

Ta152 (25)
P-47D25 (30)
P-47D11 (36)
P-38G (37)

IMHO, I think that the factor of usage has too much weight in your formula. But on those planes that share a high usage, the chart looks quite good.



 

   

[Lusche]

Nice approach with a lot of brain work ...


... but unfortunately the propesed ENY list is not better, more reasonable or even "fairer" than the current one. Actaully it's much worse. Indeed you are putting too much emphasis on "usage" as a simple determining factor for setting ENY.
For example, the A6M is suddenly ENY 9. A perfect turner, but considering it's slow speed and extreme vulnerability, it's more a target than a killer. The reason that it's getting a comparatively high usage is simply the fact that it's a CV plane which get (as Zazen already showed) a disproportional high "usage" because of the very short disnatnces they have to cover before getting into action.

And while I do have the feeling the Ta 152 deserves a somewhat higher ENY than 5, a value of 25 is more than a tad too much for a fast plane with one of the deadliest gun packages in game (and of course, that's true for the 47N too) 

[Anaxogoras]

I agree that there are some distortions.  The funniest one is the P-38J; the sapp nutjobs have artificially pushed it way up even though the L is the better aircraft.

It's worth repeating that these values are not set in stone.  Once they were put in place, player behavior would change accordingly, and in the next tour the values would be different.  Eventually they would settle out into a regular scheme, but I can't predict what that would be.

As for weighting frequency of use, that is a benefit, not a detriment.   These criticisms that take aim at weighting use too much assume that these values would never change due to player behavior and adjustment once such a formula (or something similar) was put in place.

[BnZs]

As predicted by yours truly, the P-51D is unfairly at the top of the list, over planes that have a higher k/d, and are generally easier to fly, simply because everybody and his brother likes the P-51. (The fact that one is tired of hearing about the P-51D being the "best plane" on the History Channel does not justify malevolently pricing what is a mediocre plane.)

The La-7, quite possibly the 2nd best airplane in the game period and which likely deserves a perk price, is now not even ENY 5. ENY above 8. Presumably because of stats compiled mostly by noobs, veterans reserving it almost entirely for desperate base defense against bad odds.

The Typh is now basically an ENY 5 plane...'nuff said...that is one I'd put even with or slightly behind the P-51, not an uber ride in any case.

The N1K2 now is ENY 6...not as bad as the La-7 being raised to 8, but similar comments apply.

MEGA-DITTOES to Lusche about his comments as regards the Ta-152s new ENY. 45 is just as assinine as 5 is. 152 is basically a slightly slower Pony with some handling issues and big guns...

The same goes for the 47N.

A damned P-38J now stands at 8. You realize this airplane is essentially not faster than a Spit16 at typical ma alts don't you? Another inherent problem in using stats like this, it is ranked above the L, which has the same performance AND dive flaps and boosted ailerons.

The Kurt and the D9 have lowered ENY, as they should, but everybody already knew that. Once again, there are distortions though, there is no way a K-4 should have higher ENY than a Dora or a Pony, considering its utter superiority as a dogfighter.

Hell, since this Anax's idea is obviously a lead balloon and no one wants to touch anything resembling objective ENY ratings, here is my new plane: Let a council of ye Learned Elder Sticks discuss and vote on the ENYs.

[Anaxogoras]

As predicted by yours truly, the P-51D is unfairly at the top of the list, over planes that have a higher k/d, and are generally easier to fly, simply because everybody and his brother likes the P-51. (The fact that one is tired of hearing about the P-51D being the "best plane" on the History Channel does not justify malevolently pricing what is a mediocre plane.)

The La-7, quite possibly the 2nd best airplane in the game period and which likely deserves a perk price, is now not even ENY 5. ENY above 8. Presumably because of stats compiled mostly by noobs, veterans reserving it almost entirely for desperate base defense against bad odds.

The Typh is now basically an ENY 5 plane...'nuff said...that is one I'd put even with or slightly behind the P-51, not an uber ride in any case.

The N1K2 now is ENY 6...not as bad as the La-7 being raised to 8, but similar comments apply.

MEGA-DITTOES to Lusche about his comments as regards the Ta-152s new ENY. 45 is just as assinine as 5 is. 152 is basically a slightly slower Pony with some handling issues and big guns...

The same goes for the 47N.

A damned P-38J now stands at 8. You realize this airplane is essentially not faster than a Spit16 at typical ma alts don't you? Another inherent problem in using stats like this, it is ranked above the L, which has the same performance AND dive flaps and boosted ailerons.

The Kurt and the D9 have lowered ENY, as they should, but everybody already knew that. Once again, there are distortions though, there is no way a K-4 should have higher ENY than a Dora or a Pony, considering its utter superiority as a dogfighter.

Hell, since this Anax's idea is obviously a lead balloon and no one wants to touch anything resembling objective ENY ratings, here is my new plane: Let a council of ye Learned Elder Sticks discuss and vote on the ENYs.

So, what you're saying is that your personal opinions about aircraft performance and ability are more important and authoritative than the judgment of the masses, especially your outlandish opinions about the P-51D.

You can either be results-oriented and make decisions based on your personal judgment of a fair outcome, or you can make a decision based on a rational principle and let the chips fall where they may.  The former typically uses an unjustifiable procedure to reach its conclusion and therefore undermines its conclusion.  That latter uses a justifiable procedure to reach results that people don't like, but which are completely fair based on the operating principle.  You'll almost always find me in the latter camp.

Still, I'm sensitive to your complaint.  Here's an idea for a compromise that might make this idea more fair to you:

Take the ENY differences between my formula and what HTC has in the chart above.  Rather that subtract or add the difference from what we have now, subtract or add it as a percentage each tour:

So, for example:

The P-51D ENY had a difference of 3, so we would subtract 3% of 8 from 8, which equals 7.76, and so it would not change.

The 109K-4 ENY had a difference of 10, so we would subract 10% of 20 from 20, which equals 18, which would be the new ENY, but it could still drop again the next tour.

The 152 and P-47N would both see their ENY increase to 6, but it could change the next tour.

The F4F ENY would increase 4 points to 24, etc.

Thoughts?

[Anaxogoras]

The Kurt and the D9 have lowered ENY, as they should, but everybody already knew that. Once again, there are distortions though, there is no way a K-4 should have higher ENY than a Dora or a Pony, considering its utter superiority as a dogfighter.

Why do you think superiority as a dogfighter should weigh so heavily?  The 190D-9 has a better K/D ratio than the 109K-4, and a bigger share of kills in the arena.  Doesn't that make it the bigger threat?  You seem to be insisting that we evaluate ENY on the basis of something that doesn't yield the results you think it should.