Hey DejaVu, have you looked into some of the research on crystaline nanotubules yet? The plan is to build single electron switches by basically allowing tunneling between adjacent cells. To be frank I never have fully got a handle on electron tunneling concepts so it seems kind of like a shot in the dark attempt in my mind, but maybe you see something there...
Thought about bs'ing to make it sound like I knew what you were talking about, but then thought better of it.
I do know we are doing work with fiber-optics in microprossessors, but it is crude and very young in its development. There is also talk of crystaline mass storage devices, and it has been proven to work on a transistor (or whatever the call the cell) level... but a real application is questioned.
One thing that is popular right (already used in the industry in non-mpc chips) is 3d manufacturing. Actually placing transistors on top of transistors. I've seen some work on it and its quite fascinating. It really doesn't help in regards to speed, but it does offer the opportunity to do things such as place a video chipset inside of your cpu packaging.
I'm guessing your research at this time primarily involves SOI techniques and high-K dielectrics. What are you guys looking into at this point? 10 Ghz seems to be a pretty lofty goal with current technologies. 5 Ghz should be easy enough with the P4 design, but that means the ALUs are going to be running at 10 Ghz, which ought to be interesting.
I work with Spin-on-Dielectrics. Its actually at the other end of the spectrum from what you are thinking. Our group is called the "Low-K" group for a good reason
We work more on the top portion of the processor (well above the transistors).
There is a clear path to 10GHz. Many chemical manufacturers are working toward that quite nicely. I don't forsee a problem there. Unfortunately, we are running into various issues such as a certain type of molecule/atom being too thick... problems for wich there seems to be no solution.
I do believe (My opinion here) that we will eventually run into a hard barrier for speed. At that time, we will have to either find a completely different medium for manufacturing processors, or change the role processors play in computing. I believe Intel is working to cover both angles... but only time will tell on that.
I don't think Moore's law is going to hold much longer.
You aren't the first to say this. Many have been saying since Gordon first issued the statement.
My opinion is that the power dissipation combined with smaller and smaller transistor sizes is going to be a very large problem, especially considering the current trend in increasing transistor count dramatically for additional cache memory etc.
Its my job to take your oppinion on this subject and shove it up your posterier. So far, our group has been doing that very successfully. I worked for lithography and was there when we proved quite conclusively that you could pattern a line/trench smaller than the wavelength of light being used to expose it.
Smaller transistors is not a problem in regards to heat. Its a benifit. You decrease the length of your gate, reducing the resistance in the line. The obvious paths here are finding less resistant chemistries to make your gates out of and minimizing the amount of current used to run the devices. This is an area where Intel kicks AMD's ass. Unfortunately, cooler does not translate to faster. But, when it comes to the laptop market, we will keep a firm handle on things.
The P-4 is in its infancy. I guarantee that reducing power consumption is one of the primary objectives in its future designs.
One thing is for sure, heatsink design is going to have to improve.
I have a tendancy to think that power consumption is the area that has to improve. AMD is pushing the limits as it is right now. Intel did it too (quite to their demise) with the 1 GHz processor. Intel has since backed off a tad with the P-3, while AMD is still riding the edge.
I can't help but laugh when I read threads in regards to heat-sinks in this forum. The things people are starting to accept as common-place are increadible. Having to sand the back of your processor is not acceptable (IMHO). Having your PC shut down because you used 1 micron too much heat-transfer goo. Requiring 18 fans to keep a processor cool is not acceptable. Both companies need to work on that first and foremost.
AKDejaVu
