A possible 'Goldilocks' planet?

[caldera]

Correction: After just over 1 billion years, the extra solar energy input will cause Earth's oceans to evaporate and the hydrogen from the water to be lost permanently to space, with total loss of water by 3 billion years.[18] Earth's atmosphere and lithosphere will become like that of Venus. Over another billion years, most of the atmosphere will get lost in space as well;[15] ultimately leaving Earth as a desiccated, dead planet with a surface of molten rock.

Courtesy of: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_giant
And for you wikipediaphobes, references: 1.^ a b c d e Zeilik, Michael A.; Gregory, Stephan A. (1998). Introductory Astronomy & Astrophysics (4th ed.). Saunders College Publishing. pp. 321–322. ISBN 0030062284.
2.^ Color of star ranging blue through orange
3.^ Measurements of the frequency of starspots on red giant stars
4.^ orange sphere of the sun
5.^ The Cambridge Atlas of Astronomy (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. 1988. pp. 255. ISBN 0-521-36360-8.
6.^ Harvard University search for orange-yellow clumps
7.^ a b Sackmann, I.-Juliana; Boothroyd, Arnold I.; Kraemer, Kathleen E. (1993). "Our Sun. III. Present and Future" (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 418: 457. doi:10.1086/173407. http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1993ApJ...418..457S&data_type=PDF_HIGH&whole_paper=YES&type=PRINTER&filetype=.pdf. Retrieved 2008-07-23.
8.^ Pogge, Richard W. (2006-01-21). "Lecture 16: The Evolution of Low-Mass Stars". Astronomy 162: Introduction to Stars, Galaxies, & the Universe. http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Ast162/Unit2/lowmass.html. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
9.^ "Main-Sequence Stars". Stars. The Astrophysics Spectator. 2005-02-16. http://www.astrophysicsspectator.com/topics/stars/MainSequence.html. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
10.^ Richmond, Michael. "Late stages of evolution for low-mass stars". http://spiff.rit.edu/classes/phys230/lectures/planneb/planneb.html. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
11.^ "Red Giants". HyperPhysics (hosted by the Department of Physics and Astronomy of Georgia State University). http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/astro/redgia.html. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
12.^ Strobel, Nick (2004-06-02). "Stages 5-7". Lives and Deaths of Stars. http://www.astronomynotes.com/evolutn/s5.htm. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
13.^ "The fading: red giants and white dwarfs". Free. http://nrumiano.free.fr/Estars/fading.html. Retrieved 2006-12-29.
14.^ Jones, Hilary (22 December 2006). "Clues to the death of our Solar System". COSMOS magazine (Sydney). http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/952/clues-death-our-solar-system.
15.^ a b Pogge, Richard W. (1997-06-13). "The Once and Future Sun". New Vistas in Astronomy. http://www-astronomy.mps.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Lectures/vistas97.html. Retrieved 2007-01-23.
16.^ Hecht, Jeff (02 April 1994). "Fiery future for planet Earth". New Scientist (Boston) (1919). http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg14219191.900-science-fiery-future-for-planet-earth.html. Retrieved 2 July 2010.
17.^ Palmer, Jason (22 February 2008). "Hope dims that Earth will survive Sun's death". New Scientist. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13369?feedId=online-news_rss20.
18.^ Sun is a powerhouse - Death in our solar system

-Penguin

More speculation stated as facts.  "At just over a billion years.."    Why not just under a billion years?  These guys can't even accurately predict the weather two days from now and yet steadfastly state their theories as absolute truth.  Take it all with a grain of salt.

[Dichotomy]

*note to all forum users* 

The above two posts support my theory that the Mayan calendar stopped in Dec of 2012 because the map maker had the epiphany that nobody he knew or cared about would be alive on that date.  So he tossed his tools and went searching for a hot babe and a fishing hole. 

As you were 

[RTHolmes]

More speculation stated as facts.  "At just over a billion years.."    Why not just under a billion years?  These guys can't even accurately predict the weather two days from now and yet steadfastly state their theories as absolute truth.  Take it all with a grain of salt.

it seems you have a deep and fundamental misunderstanding of science. there was a long topic which could help you understand this stuff, just search for "a posteriori"

[caldera]

My understanding is that science is the pursuit of facts.  Scientific "facts" have been overturned again and again by new "facts" for hundreds of years.  All the research and calculations no matter how ingenious, are not proof that these doomsday scenarios are going to take place.  I have no problem with their ideas as long as they express that they are only ideas.  The all-knowing arrogance of claiming that such and such is going to happen in just over a billion years raises no red flag with you? 

Just go on mocking the skeptics as fools instead of proving what you say is true.  The one fact in all of this is you can no more prove this stuff than I can disprove it, which is my whole point.  It is all only scientific theory, yet the word theory is rarely used anymore.  These guys know exactly what's 20 light years away as well as what will happen in just over a billion years. 

[Karnak]

Science is not a pursuit of facts.  Sometimes facts are a product of science, but science is a tool that effectively allows us to refine our understanding how the universe we live in works.

[Dadsguns]

More speculation stated as facts.  "At just over a billion years.."    Why not just under a billion years?  These guys can't even accurately predict the weather two days from now and yet steadfastly state their theories as absolute truth.  Take it all with a grain of salt.

These are not your average weathermen your talking about, that's a guarantee.....       
They are the sharpest minds in this field of science and you can bet that they are not far off from their theories, sort of like a target,,, maybe not dead center, but in the 10 ring for sure. 

 

[FireDrgn]

ahhhh  nevermind

[FireDrgn]

Science is not a pursuit of facts.  Sometimes facts are a product of science, but science is a tool that effectively allows us to refine our understanding how the universe we live in works.

What facts of science were produced with out pursuit?

[Saxman]

yes deserts are on earth. but even you know about the sahara theory right? the sahara used to be lush jungle before a flash heat from a breaking comet took it all out. the shards from this comet are all over the desert there. most of our deserts are in areas of no rainfall or in areas that are too hot and dry to sustain large quantities of surface water. none of these places are at the 160 degree level. the problem is is that once rainfall happens in the sunrise section of the planet, it will not have enough time for life to grow. because if the sunrise goes to daylight too fast for life to take hold, there will be no life. what i am saying is that to sustain life on the planet, it must rotate at a speed such as earth's, or move so slowly that the land of constant sunrise may take years before it hits the day side of the planet... if sunrise on the planet only lasts a few days to months (approximating for my point, i do not know the exact speed necessary to not sustain life) life cannot take hold. maybe bacterium that can survive in the extremes, but nothing more...

Actually, the theories I've seen are that the Sahara's dryness is cyclical and has gone through several wet and dry periods. The drying is largely believed to be a result of changing patterns in the monsoon, which used to extend further north than it does today.

[AKKuya]

Fellas, we, the human race, will not be visiting any extra solar planets until we, the human race, has progressed to a Kardashev Type 1 civilization or a little further to a Type 2 level.  Until the scientific community creates a technology that can turn energy into matter, we, the human race, are staying put within the solar system specifically within the inner planetary system.

By having the means of turning raw energy into raw matter, the scarcity of natural resources will be eliminated.  Vast construction projects will create the future of tomorrow envisioned by artists and scientists of the last century. 

After achieving that small feat, the next step will be creating a power source greater than the energy output of a star and beyond.

Then, the easy parts will be a ship, propulsion system, and shielding.  Piece of cake work there.

The final act of this adventure will be creating an artificial gravity/interial dampener system.  Why accelerate our future heroes off to the "Goldilocks Planet" if they are turned into goo on the back wall of the room they are in at the instant of ignition?  Plus, they need to be walking around under gravity to keep them bones strong.

[4deck]

Think i'm gonna watch "Contact" again.

I read about this last month.

tis kewl. 

[trax1]

To think that the Sun isn't going to heat up and boil the oceans away in around a billion years really isn't debatable, like Caldera said, these are the smartest scientific minds in the world who are saying this, I think it's pretty safe to say they know what their talking about, but we don't need to worry about it anyways, who really thinks the human race will survive long enough for it to even be an issue, long long long before that something will take our race out and we'll become extinct like the dino's, but there might be some other type of intelligent life here by then that might need to worry about it, but I think it's safe to say it won't be us.

[Saxman]

To think that the Sun isn't going to heat up and boil the oceans away in around a billion years really isn't debatable, like Caldera said, these are the smartest scientific minds in the world who are saying this, I think it's pretty safe to say they know what their talking about, but we don't need to worry about it anyways, who really thinks the human race will survive long enough for it to even be an issue, long long long before that something will take our race out and we'll become extinct like the dino's, but there might be some other type of intelligent life here by then that might need to worry about it, but I think it's safe to say it won't be us.

I have read some theories that as the sun increases in size and intensity that it may just push the orbits of planets outward, keeping earth within its habitable zone.

But yeah, I wouldn't count on us being around to see it....

[RTHolmes]

Take us forever to get there though

you think so? its only 20ly away (proxima centauri our closest neighbour is about 4.2ly away).

sounds like a long way but it really isnt. take a space ship that accelerates at 1g up to the midway point, then decelerates at 1g to destination (so the astronauts get to experience familiar earthlike gravity for the entire trip).

any guesses on how long the trip takes for the astronauts?

and how much time has passed on earth by the time they get back?

 

[RTHolmes]

ok ... not an easy question to answer.

time to get to nearest star proxima centauri, 4.3ly:
3.6yr astronaut time, 6yr earth time.

time to get to Gliese 581, 20ly:
6yr astronaut time, 22yr earth time.


what about fuel? well assuming we're using some kind of propulsion system that converts fuel mass into energy at 100% efficiency, to get to proxima centauri requires a fuel/payload ratio of ~40. (Saturn V ratio for the lunar landings was ~50.)

to get to Gliese 581 however requires a ratio of ~500. remember the Nostromo from the alien movie? thats roughly what it could look like. if you replace what it was towing with fuel ("an ore refinery and 20m tonnes of ore"), you get about the same ratio