Author Topic: No hurricanes???  (Read 3244 times)

Offline Stellaris

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #45 on: October 01, 2013, 10:46:06 AM »
I only looked at the Columbia page and their setup (the NASA one is down due to lack of government funding... this is so sad). They seem to be doing the classic error of assuming a 2D atmosphere - i.e. a uniform atmosphere without a vertical structure. This has been shown to be absolutely critical in order to solve the radiation transfer through the atmosphere, which IS the greenhouse effect.


I'm pleased you looked at EdgeCM - but how hard did you look?  EdgeCM is simplified (it runs on PCs, not supercomputers, after all) but it is a fully 3D model with a fully 3D atmosphere.  I'll just quote from page 13 of the user manual. 

2.3 The GISS GCM Model II

The heart of EdGCM is the GISS GCM Model II (described in detail in
Hansen et al.), a three-dimensional model which solves numerically
the physical conservation equations for energy, mass, momentum and
moisture, as well as the equation of state. GISS Model II has a horizontal
resolution of 8˚ latitude by 10˚ longitude, nine layers in the atmosphere
extending to 10 mb, and two ground hydrology layers. The model accounts
for both seasonal and diurnal solar cycles in its temperature calculations.
Cloud particles, aerosols, and radiatively important gases (e.g., carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides) are explicitly incorporated into the
radiation scheme. Large-scale and convective cloud cover are predicted,
and precipitation is generated whenever supersaturated conditions
occur. Snow depth is based on a balance between snowfall, melting and
sublimation. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are calculated using model derived
surface energy fluxes and specified ocean heat convergences. The
ocean heat convergences vary both seasonally and regionally, but are
otherwise fixed. This is the primary mixed-layer ocean model developed
for use with the GISS GCM (described in detail in Russell et al. and
in appendix A of Hansen et al.)
Certain boundary conditions necessary for simulations (e.g., levels of
various atmospheric gases, solar luminosity) can easily be adjusted for
customized simulations. Other boundary conditions, generally those that
are geography-dependent (e.g., alternate land mass distributions for
paleoclimate simulations; topography; vegetation) are not customizable for
the purposes of most EdGCM users.


Where did you get the idea it was 2D and unlayered?

Since NASA's website is down, you can also view their movie here  http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/09/watch-climate-get-terribly-weird-nasa-simulation/7054/

Now please don't think I'm some granola-head save-the-planet hippie.  Not at all.  I live in Canada.  We make billions selling tar sands oil, and anything to warm up the nation is most welcome.  Rev those Humvees boys!  Daddy needs a new pool, and a couple more months of summer!
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 11:48:11 AM by Stellaris »

Offline chaser

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #46 on: October 01, 2013, 02:08:47 PM »

Small event?  :huh   I'm talking about total devastation man....Things like the 3 EF5's that have struck Moore in the last 15 years, the one that hit Alabama a couple of years ago, and the EF5 that killed Tim Samaras out by El Reno, Oklahoma with an almost 300mph windspeed, are happening all too often now.  I'm not using this as an attempt to "prove" global warming.  All I'm saying is something is wrong with the weather....you can't disagree that thing aren't slightly out of whack....

In the grand scheme of things, a tornado is a very, very small weather event. Even the El Reno tornado. It only affected a few square miles of the ENTIRE Earth. While the El Reno tornado was a freak of nature, these tornadoes are not any more common now than they were 50 years ago. I was chasing that day and it was just one of those days that every single ingredient for tornado formation came together perfectly. Insane instability, insane wind shear, just the right amount of cap, tons of gulf moisture, and a very turbulent outflow boundary stalled out over the entire OKC metro. It all came together in just the right way that day. Population has grown, more farmland is now city, and technology has improved so much it's hard to even imagine what the weather technology was 50 years ago. Few, if any, tornadoes go undetected now. If you look at the number of tornado reports per year in the 1950's and 60's and compare them to now, one would be led to believe we experience around 10X more tornadoes per year now. However, this is very wrong for the reason's stated in the last sentence.

Also between the 2007 Greensburg, KS EF5 tornado and 2011 Joplin EF5 tornado there were exactly 0 EF5 tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes, and even one freak of nature, do not = global warming.

Offline Stellaris

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2013, 02:39:50 PM »
A few strong tornadoes, and even one freak of nature, do not = global warming.

No - they don't.  The overall increase in average surface temperature around the globe, as both historically recorded by NASA instruments and reasonably predicted by NASA simulations = global warming.

That link again is...

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/09/watch-climate-get-terribly-weird-nasa-simulation/7054/


Offline chaser

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2013, 02:49:15 PM »
No - they don't.  The overall increase in average surface temperature around the globe, as both historically recorded by NASA instruments and reasonably predicted by NASA simulations = global warming.

That link again is...

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2013/09/watch-climate-get-terribly-weird-nasa-simulation/7054/



Lol You can't believe any data that comes from the IPCC. The only thing thing they care about is lining their pockets.

Offline Stellaris

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2013, 03:03:57 PM »
1)  IPCC doesn't collect data, it doesn't even process data.  It produces reports which summarize the findings of the national research bodies of participating nations.  

2)  This particular research comes from NASA.

3)  If you think NASA is faking its results on global warming to get money, then the link you need is...

        http://www.venusproject.org/articles/science-proves-that-nasa-faked-the-moon-landings-moon-landing-is-a-hoax.html
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 04:32:57 PM by Stellaris »

Offline puller

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2013, 04:02:46 PM »

 I'm not using this as an attempt to "prove" global warming.  All I'm saying is something is wrong with the weather....you can't disagree that thing aren't slightly out of whack....

I'm not talking about global warming....I believe that the fear mongering of "global warming" is being used to make money....If the planet is heating up so be it...it has happened countless times in the life cycle of the planet...always followed by a period of global cooling.  Do I think that humans might be the cause of it?...Don't really know or care, its not like my family and I can do anything to stop it....What I am talking about is weather modification (there I'll come out and say it, let me put my tinfoil hat on  :noid ) I say this because you cannot convince me otherwise that the deliberate spraying of chemicals into the atmosphere is a good thing....But a person can come up with countless articles and government research documents that plainly state that they are "playing" with our weather.  If you want links I'll put them up tomorrow...one is from the Air Force.
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Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2013, 04:47:14 PM »
The Dust Bowl is a good example of man altering the weather and climate.  Also, the heat dome put off by citys constantly changes the weather around them.  As I watch radar, I often see thunderstorms flare over highways.

 :noid

Offline chaser

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2013, 06:35:40 PM »
1)  IPCC doesn't collect data, it doesn't even process data.  It produces reports which summarize the findings of the national research bodies of participating nations.  

2)  This particular research comes from NASA.

3)  If you think NASA is faking its results on global warming to get money, then the link you need is...

        http://www.venusproject.org/articles/science-proves-that-nasa-faked-the-moon-landings-moon-landing-is-a-hoax.html
By data I was referring to their reports.. The earth has warmed .05C during the time frame they said it was going to warm .20-.25C.  That's significantly less and basically 0. Several reports actually claim global cooling now and some of the "experts" are even saying we're now entering a period of cooling. So who do you believe? Why not just let the earth do its natural thing and we stop spending so much money "saving" something we have no control or affect on that's not even changing in the first place?

Offline sunfan1121

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2013, 06:45:21 PM »
The heat escaping is the same amount as heat absorbed if we assume that the earth is in a local thermodynamic equilibrium. Greenhouse effect does not change that, it only changes the wavelengths in which the radiation escapes.
I only looked at the Columbia page and their setup (the NASA one is down due to lack of government funding... this is so sad). They seem to be doing the classic error of assuming a 2D atmosphere - i.e. a uniform atmosphere without a vertical structure. This has been shown to be absolutely critical in order to solve the radiation transfer through the atmosphere, which IS the greenhouse effect.

What happens when you change the way infrared radiation escapes the planet?
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Offline Stellaris

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #54 on: October 02, 2013, 03:10:30 AM »
By data I was referring to their reports.. The earth has warmed .05C during the time frame they said it was going to warm .20-.25C.  That's significantly less and basically 0. Several reports actually claim global cooling now and some of the "experts" are even saying we're now entering a period of cooling. So who do you believe? Why not just let the earth do its natural thing and we stop spending so much money "saving" something we have no control or affect on that's not even changing in the first place?

OK - when you say "data" you mean "reports".  Those aren't really the same thing,  so I have to ask - when you say "IPCC" do you mean "NASA"?  Because I am talking about NASA's data, NASA's research, and NASA's findings, all of which show that global warming is continuing and accelerating.  Don't take my word for it, click the links I gave you and see for yourself.

However, maybe when you said IPCC you meant IPCC, so let's talk about the IPCC reports.  The most recent came out Sept 27, and you can read it for yourself here.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UkuJEkBQ4Yk
 
I must have missed the parts that talked about cooling, or less warming than anticipated, or humans having nothing to do with the process.  Please feel free to show me the relevant quotations.  In the meantime, I'll show you the key points from the executive summary which have led me astray.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of
greenhouse gases have increased

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have
increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily
from net land use change emissions.
The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted
anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification

Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The
largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 since 1750


Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system.


But again, don't take me for some treehugger who's trying to save the planet.  Here in Toronto it's October 1st, the leaves have barely started to turn and I've been in shorts all week.   :banana:
« Last Edit: October 02, 2013, 04:15:16 AM by Stellaris »

Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #55 on: October 02, 2013, 04:15:26 AM »
But again, don't take me for some treehugger who's trying to save the planet.  Here in Toronto it's October 1st, the leaves have barely started to turn and I've been in shorts all week.   :banana:

Sounds like we're onto something.

Offline bozon

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #56 on: October 02, 2013, 10:14:37 AM »
I'm pleased you looked at EdgeCM - but how hard did you look?  EdgeCM is simplified (it runs on PCs, not supercomputers, after all) but it is a fully 3D model with a fully 3D atmosphere.  I'll just quote from page 13 of the user manual. 

...<snip>...

Now please don't think I'm some granola-head save-the-planet hippie.  Not at all.  I live in Canada.  We make billions selling tar sands oil, and anything to warm up the nation is most welcome.  Rev those Humvees boys!  Daddy needs a new pool, and a couple more months of summer!
Thanks for the correction. I only looked at the setup options and initial atmospheric conditions were rather simple. I clearly should RTFM :).

I never said you were a hippie ("granola-head", I liked that :) ). I consider myself more greenie than most and most of the scientists that I know who are opposed to the idea of CO2 as the main cause of climate change are even greener than I am. At least one of them says that his motivation to check the atmospheric calculations was that he felt that if CO2 was not clearly the culprit, humanity is spending way too much resources on fighting a negligible problem (reducing CO2) instead of fighting real pollution and at the same time damaging science. He by the way strongly supports reducing CO2 emission, but it has nothing to do with the climate.

A few years ago, when this was a hotter topic (pun intended...) I got to hear a few seminar both by people who were blaming CO2 and the opposition. I was more convinced by the criticism of the opposition to the physics implemented in the models used at the time. I don't know how much the improved. These were seminar for physicists explaining much of the nitty gritty of the calculations. Both sides were honest about the uncertainties in their calculations and arguments as it should be in a scientific discussion.

However, the opposition was painting a worrying picture about the cynical use political and ideological groups are doing with the results. They were personally threatened and journal editors were hesitant in publishing their papers. Half baked results that include large uncertainties intended for scientists to debate about are being plucked and published in the general media as facts, or used by politicians to drive their own agendas. The CO2 opposition (and myself I must admit) are worried about this practice and the consequences of investing billions, hampering progress and changing the way of life of whole nations on a "what if" that is instead labeled as "science says". Humanity has bigger problems to solve that can be solved and science is likely to take a big hit in the confidence and support of the general public if/when one of two things happen: 1) CO2 is found not to be the cause, or 2) inspite of all the efforts and money, climate continues to go astray because we will not be able to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere by any significant amount. Science in the western world depends on public support and confidence. We already see people who claim "bahh you can't believe these scientists" and extrapolate this to whole of science.
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Offline Stellaris

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #57 on: October 02, 2013, 12:31:33 PM »
@bozon

There are always at least a few scientists who genuinely hold alternative positions on any developing scientific field.  When that field becomes important for whatever reason the media inevitably uses them to make some kind of controversy to sell stories.   Politicians then inevitably misrepresent it for political gain, corporations inevitably come down on the side that will make them money, and various interests just back whatever aligns with their interest. 

None of this changes the underlying facts - although it does produce a lot of "facts" (distorted, misunderstood, and outright fabricated) which then get bounced around the mediasphere by all of the above, none of whom have any real understanding of what they're talking about.

Once upon a time learning the real facts took a lot of effort, so there was little the average person could do in the face of all this motivated distortion. However in the age of the internet the baseline facts are a click away.  What astounds me is how many people choose to loudly demonstrate their ignorance rather than risk having to change a pre-formed opinion.

Anyway  :salute bozon, for proving that educated debate remains possible on such a politicized issue.  I think you'll enjoy putting an hour or two into EdgeCM, and I look forward to hearing your findings.  Myself, I'm off to enjoy an hour or two of gorgeous October weather.








Offline ghi

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #58 on: October 04, 2013, 09:38:30 PM »
plenty of weather doom today even without hurricanes; tornadoes in SD, NE, IA  and snow behind the cold front; and tropical storm in south;
  http://www.weather.gov/

Offline chaser

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #59 on: October 05, 2013, 12:06:41 AM »
OK - when you say "data" you mean "reports".  Those aren't really the same thing,  so I have to ask - when you say "IPCC" do you mean "NASA"?  Because I am talking about NASA's data, NASA's research, and NASA's findings, all of which show that global warming is continuing and accelerating.  Don't take my word for it, click the links I gave you and see for yourself.

However, maybe when you said IPCC you meant IPCC, so let's talk about the IPCC reports.  The most recent came out Sept 27, and you can read it for yourself here.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UkuJEkBQ4Yk
 
I must have missed the parts that talked about cooling, or less warming than anticipated, or humans having nothing to do with the process.  Please feel free to show me the relevant quotations.  In the meantime, I'll show you the key points from the executive summary which have led me astray.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.
The atmosphere and ocean have warmed,
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of
greenhouse gases have increased

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have
increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily
from net land use change emissions.
The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted
anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification

Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The
largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric
concentration of CO2 since 1750


Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system.


But again, don't take me for some treehugger who's trying to save the planet.  Here in Toronto it's October 1st, the leaves have barely started to turn and I've been in shorts all week.   :banana:

I ain't reading all that... If you want to be stupid and worry your whole life about something that's not happening then so be it.