Author Topic: No hurricanes???  (Read 3245 times)

Offline Motherland

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #90 on: October 15, 2013, 01:19:42 PM »
There only seems to be one real criterion for whether or not a hurricane is major or significant, or whether it actually happened at all, and that is whether or not it personally affected NatCigg. Sandy obviously does not fit into that category.
Even mundane rainstorms are more severe, the only reason Sandy killed almost 300 people is because North Easterners are pansies.

Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #91 on: October 15, 2013, 01:33:44 PM »
not really blown back inland.  The system was blocked by high pressure and drawn into a arctic front.  :ahand

It has been said by some the unusually strong blocking pattern off the east coast was made worse by global warming.  Tho this is an educated guess because the science is so new.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/why-did-hurricane-sandy-take-such-an-unusual-track-into-new-jersey

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
 
Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

+64

We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.


Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.


Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."

Jeff Masters

Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #92 on: October 15, 2013, 01:36:53 PM »

"the only reason Sandy killed almost 300 people is because North Easterners are pansies."

and image one above!

Offline VonMessa

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #93 on: October 15, 2013, 01:45:33 PM »
"the only reason Sandy killed almost 300 people is because North Easterners are pansies."

and image one above!

I think the major reason is that some people stayed when the Governor said "If you are at the shore, GET OUT, there is a very large storm coming"
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Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #94 on: October 15, 2013, 01:49:44 PM »
I think the major reason is that some people stayed when the Governor said "If you are at the shore, GET OUT, there is a very large storm coming"

I remember some horror stories from perfectly sane people that had to swim from their homes in the middle of the night.  :O
Personaly, Im scared to swim in the ocean on a nice sunny day.  :uhoh

Offline VonMessa

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #95 on: October 15, 2013, 02:09:13 PM »
I remember some horror stories from perfectly sane people that had to swim from their homes in the middle of the night.  :O
Personaly, Im scared to swim in the ocean on a nice sunny day.  :uhoh

The Governor was fairly clear about his instructions, even though he was wearing sweatpants.
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Offline Tank-Ace

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #96 on: October 16, 2013, 10:36:41 AM »
I'm of the opinion that Sandy was poetic justice for that crap show, Jerzy Shore.

Although I would have been satisfied with a series of improbably fierce and ludicrously fast-spreading fires gutting the north east.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2013, 10:38:45 AM by Tank-Ace »
You started this thread and it was obviously about your want and desire in spite of your use of 'we' and Google.

"Once more unto the breach"

Offline VonMessa

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #97 on: October 16, 2013, 10:48:03 AM »
I'm of the opinion that Sandy was poetic justice for that crap show, Jerzy Shore.

Although I would have been satisfied with a series of improbably fierce and ludicrously fast-spreading fires gutting the north east.

I guess that is adequate justice for a bunch of spoiled, wanna-be Italians that aren't really from Jersey to begin with...  

Homes destroyed and lives lost.  Perfect trade for a crappy TV show any day...   :rolleyes:
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Offline Tank-Ace

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #98 on: October 16, 2013, 05:03:18 PM »
I hope to god you didn't take me seriously there....


Anyway, I do think it came largely as a result of stupidity. Build your house right on the shore, and stay when a hurricane is coming.


Now this may sound heartless, but if you're that stupid... Hell, you would have found a way to die in a kiddie pool.
You started this thread and it was obviously about your want and desire in spite of your use of 'we' and Google.

"Once more unto the breach"

Offline NatCigg

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #99 on: November 07, 2013, 04:24:39 PM »
« Last Edit: November 07, 2013, 04:31:04 PM by NatCigg »

Offline ghi

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #100 on: November 07, 2013, 05:00:57 PM »
Philippines has high population density, poorly built homes/shelters, i'm afraid many people are going to die

Offline Slash27

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #101 on: November 07, 2013, 05:21:17 PM »
Winds just reported to be 195 sustained.  :(

Offline surfinn

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #102 on: November 07, 2013, 06:13:41 PM »
That thing is a beast, and your right lots of lifes will be lost. Damn sad

Offline ozrocker

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Re: No hurricanes???
« Reply #103 on: November 07, 2013, 06:14:45 PM »
Not sure how thats funny  :headscratch:
Yeah right about that. Sandy people are still suffering, waiting on insurance to pay out. (lucky ones).
Ones without flood insurance pretty much SOL.
Still areas where houses are just as they were in the days after Sandy.



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