Author Topic: Real global cooling  (Read 2648 times)

Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2013, 05:50:11 PM »
A percentage of this community clearly doesn't know what science is, what it's for, how it works and are completely unable to distinguish it from pseudoscience. Or is it simply that having so much invested in the present system it becomes an issue of cultural expedience I wonder.

I find your statement to be interesting especially considering that man-made global warming never survived the scientific method and came through as fact.  Rather, a number of people (who were rewarded financially) raised their hands and came to a consensus that something was occurring and demanded change to avert it.  Sorry, but that is not how "theories" are proven.
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Offline caldera

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #31 on: November 13, 2013, 05:53:25 PM »
Burning fossil fuels is the pinnacle of recycling.  All that trash the dinosaurs left laying around finally gets put to a good use.  :aok
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Offline mtnman

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2013, 08:53:57 PM »

Global warming has not been significant during the last 10 or 15 years and has not gone according to models.


This is a point that really, really makes me suspicious...  

Not because it's true or not, but rather because it seems to be throwing the "warming" proponents into an odd position of trying to figure out the "why" of it, discredit the lack of warming, and continue their argument (and maybe even punish fossil fuel users).  

If they really believed warming was man-related, why aren't they trying to find means to take political credit for the lack of recent warming somehow?  Certainly they could find a way to capitalize on the trend, celebrate some "success" and use it to further their agenda.  It doesn't really need to be a factual reason either; many would be willing to jump right onto the bandwagon simply because it's the PC thing to do...

Instead, they seem to be concentrating on the lack of recent warming as an anomaly, or maybe even a problem of sorts.  

It makes me suspect that solving the warming issue (and I'm not saying I necessarily believe there is one) isn't the real agenda; rather it seems they may want to draw out the "problem" for as long as possible for as much "gain" as possible?  Maybe the issue itself has more value than a solution?

And, maybe not.  Regardless, the argument gets muddy enough that it's pretty tough to take sides and feel like I'm doing it based on real science.

It just doesn't feel like logical problem solving to me?  I'm used to Defining a problem, Measuring it, Analyzing the data, making Improvements, and Controlling the process going forward. 

If they've defined the problem, and seen what could be argued as an improvement of sorts, why aren't they explaining to us how that success was achieved?  Instead, the tactic seems to be more of an "ignore what's really going on, the problem isn't solved yet" argument.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2013, 09:00:37 PM by mtnman »
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Offline nrshida

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #33 on: November 14, 2013, 01:49:43 AM »
I didn't particularly mean to isolate you ROC, I quoted you because it appeared in your first sentence that you didn't understand what peer review was. Peer review isn't a medium through which the general public can regulate the work of scientists. They general public aren't equipped to do so. The fact that scientists do this themselves as part of their method is not insignificant.


Scientists are debating the same things everyone else is on this particular subject :)  If they can't agree, how do you expect us uneducated ones to agree :)  

No they really aren't.

This system you are questioning (and of course you are right to do so), does its work with the upmost rigour and is by definition free from ulterior motive. Peer review, although only a component of the system, ensures that. Scientists do not understand everything nor are they expected to do so, otherwise they'd just be custodians of knowledge. Some of the problems are so complex the only way to make progress is to define the problem (which might in itself take several years - and this is already abstract and esoteric compared to what the general public thinks constitutes a problem) and then make suppositions, construct a model and then test those. And then they make another iteration. Debate and mistakes are an inherent part of the process.

Do not confuse this with them being 'wrong' in layman's terms and therefore we can dismiss everything they say and go on without changing a lifestyle with which many people obviously have a lot invested in.

Just for the record and I think it is important for someone to state this: the current models which include the activities of mankind since the Industrial Revolution fit the observable changes to the climate with a 95% certainty. That is the scientist's rating of their own validity. There is no longer any debate in any circles of any worth which doubt this. Anyone here present can easily verify this. This is internationally accepted.


Sometimes people put too much faith in someone they think is smarter than they are.  

So we have Faction A: a segment of the population who are gifted intellectually, who dedicate decades of their lives purely to the pursuit of understanding, without significant financial or other gain, that work in an international community transcending borders and political barriers, sometimes in multi-generation research programmes (this means some scientists spend their entire careers and lives and die before the conclusion of the research) who's primary motivation is to understand nature in a profound way for the benefit of humanity as a whole.

Then we have Faction B: capitalists, speculative investors, power-hungry psychotic individuals, large nationalistic institutions with budgets which rival those of small countries, also replete with clever people, who manipulate the thinking and activities of the human race as an entity (including starting wars & killing people) to further their own agendas.

And it is Faction A we should be distrustful of?

Please, think about it, just indulge me for 60 seconds of your life.



No, but since numerous scientists have published erroneous and downright falsified papers on the subject, I am going to take that as a compliment.

Then they aren't scientists.


Not a one.  I have read numerous papers on the subject and I find anyone supporting man-made global climate change as highly suspect, especially when you trace the money back to who is funding these follies.

One patently obvious hole I think people like you have in your logic is you imply that scientists have an agenda to distort the truth for their own gain. Do you mean they gain funding for research? Do you know how long that lasts for when a hypothesis is disproven? Do you know how those budgets compare to a serious commercial advertising campaign for example?

I'm just curious how you rationalize this. Why? Why are the scientists saying these things? What is in it for them? What's their angle?



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Offline zack1234

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #34 on: November 14, 2013, 01:52:24 AM »
Actually, there is not.  

Do you believe in UFO's and conspiracy theories? :old:

And do you like to polish your weapon when you get angry?

"Peer review" is the same as "Life style choice" a term invented for the chattering classes :old:
« Last Edit: November 14, 2013, 01:55:45 AM by zack1234 »
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #35 on: November 14, 2013, 07:31:04 AM »
One patently obvious hole I think people like you have in your logic is you imply that scientists have an agenda to distort the truth for their own gain. Do you mean they gain funding for research? Do you know how long that lasts for when a hypothesis is disproven? Do you know how those budgets compare to a serious commercial advertising campaign for example?

I'm just curious how you rationalize this. Why? Why are the scientists saying these things? What is in it for them? What's their angle?

Well, people "like me" are distrustful of this "man-made" global warming pseudo science (now called man-made climate change and before that man-made global cooling) because there is not fact to back it up.  Rather, people are being manipulated into buying into the creation of a new power scheme which ultimately breaks down into redistribution of wealth on a global scale.  Further, when you start looking at the claims and the data used to make this pseudo science up it becomes downright scary.  The entirety of decades of research in several cases was based on falsified data.  Sampling errors on data recording stations were documented and then changed to suit these agendas. 

So, do I accept this supposed science which I fear is based on a consensus as opposed to question it?  You're damn right I do. 

When you look at what the carbon trading scheme is about and really follow the money, you might begin to understand why this push to declare natural climate change as a man-made disaster is actually happening.  The carbon trading proposals will bring many nations to their knees and make a select few wealthy beyond imagination.  Think about that for awhile.
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2013, 07:35:08 AM »
Do you believe in UFO's and conspiracy theories? :old:

And do you like to polish your weapon when you get angry?

"Peer review" is the same as "Life style choice" a term invented for the chattering classes :old:

Perhaps you could try to back up your belief in man-made global warming with some fact.  I really would appreciate someone that could do this coming along into this discussion....
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Offline NatCigg

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2013, 08:28:26 AM »
Can i get a job saving the world? I think im ready.   :salute

Offline zack1234

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2013, 09:56:38 AM »
Perhaps you could try to back up your belief in man-made global warming with some fact.  I really would appreciate someone that could do this coming along into this discussion....

I have no views on global warming, i was bored :old:
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Offline DubiousKB

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #39 on: November 14, 2013, 09:59:15 AM »
Can i get a job saving the world? I think im ready.   :salute

You sir,are hired.   :salute

anyone realize how much fossil fuel they burn simply spending 30minutes on that fancy thing called the internet.  I'd love to find out exactly what a forum post and review of 30 minutes actually uses energy wise... we may all be hypocrites.  :devil  

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Offline wpeters

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #40 on: November 14, 2013, 10:11:57 AM »
The world as a whole has warmed up a little over the last several centuries. Due to the fact that there is more humans than ever before on this planet.  There is a lot of energy being consumed which is leading to a little bit warmer here on this planet.

On the whole the world does go through this cycle on its own.

You can prove this by looking at old maps that were made in the early 1500’s and had been copied from previous maps. They show Antarctica and South America in incredible detail. What is puzzling is that the Antarctica they show is not covered with ice. Today, those same features are under ice a mile thick!

My point is then this,  The Northern Hemisphere is getting warmer but people fail to note that the southern hemisphere is getting colder and is building up a ice field
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Offline Slate

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #41 on: November 14, 2013, 10:15:16 AM »
   As Bob Grant used to say: "Meteorite where are you?" This planet will someday be wiped clean of the human infestation.  :old:

   We can get wiped out from many sources and many people think we have the power to change the Earths' dynamic environment. We don't understand history and are forced to repeat it.

   Most self called scientists are morons with moronic theories and useless statistics. Even my dumb butt knows statistics are swayed by the data you wish to include.

       It's cold out today and I need a coat for I live in the now.  :D
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Offline Bodhi

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #42 on: November 14, 2013, 10:18:19 AM »
Wpeters, The whole of the Northern Hemisphere has been warming since it was covered by ice roughly 25K years ago.  There is no data to suggest, let alone show, that the increase in the human population has had any impact on the temperature of the Earth as a whole or even hemispherical.  

You are right in stating that world temperatures are cyclical and that cycle is heavily influenced by the activity of the Sun.  
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Offline pembquist

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #43 on: November 14, 2013, 10:53:01 AM »

   Most self called scientists are morons with moronic theories and useless statistics.

Not to cast any aspersions or anything.
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Real global cooling
« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2013, 02:50:42 PM »
Complicated computer models have a very large number of adjustable parameters in them, and when you have a large number of adjustable parameters, you can make your model fit just about anything.  However, this does not mean it is an accurate model of the process or that it will be able to predict data going into the future.

It is not unfounded to have skepticism for complicated models that fit well with past data but not so well going into the future.

Also, peer review is not a perfect cure for incorrect models.  Peer review does help filter out some garbage, it is true, but it can also lock into an ideology that rejects valid but unfashionable views.  This has happened a often historically in all fields of science and is a natural consequence of the way humans work -- science is a little more resistant to it compared to general society, but it is very far from immune.  Many scientific theories that are accepted as legitimate today went through a period where they were ridiculed and considered to be hogwash by the majority scientific opinion of the time.

We already know that climate modeling is rife with such dynamics.  You only have to read a few of the leaked e-mails of some of the opinion leaders in the field to see that unambiguously.

None of the above is to say that the current crop of climate models are completely wrong or worthless.  It is just to point out caveats that people need to keep in mind with regard to modeling and the operation of the science community.