Malaysian airlines 777 missing

[Scherf]

Apparently there is now a crowdsourcing initiative to allow the great unwashed (that's us) to search recent satellite images:

http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/mh370_indian_ocean

[Ack-Ack]

I would think it's normal to program alternate airports along the route in case of emergencies? I wonder who has analyzed the data and reached the conclusions; media, government officials or someone actually knowledgeable about these emergency procedures.

The Malaysian Airlines through the Malaysian government released the info about the course change being already programmed into the flight computer before the co-pilot acknowledged the hand off to Vietnam's ATC.  

ack-ack

[GScholz]

That's a little too vague to be "damning" don't you think? Programming course changes (to for example alternate airports) into the flight commputer, and executing course changes are a very different matter.

[Ack-Ack]

That's a little too vague to be "damning" don't you think? Programming course changes (to for example alternate airports) into the flight commputer, and executing course changes are a very different matter.

Except the course change that was programmed wasn't part of their routine flight path, and according to the airlines the crew had no valid reason to program the course change into the flight computer.

FtJR is an airline pilot, correct?  It would be interesting to hear his take on it.

ack-ack

[Groth]

 Firstly, I have not the experience, nor the personal knowledge of flying anything(ok, Piper cub in mid '60s for maybe 15 min under close supervision).
 That said..any of our more experienced pilots comments on this would be nice to know...http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/...?

[FTJR]

From the article:
In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done.  The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777.  Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.
(Image removed from quote.)If they knew the approximate take off time of SIA68, synching up with them would be no problem at all. They could have checked that easily before takeoff. This is a very plausible theory.

I left the TCAS out my statement , for he couldn't use the system on the plane since it is not passive, you see him, he sees you. However the writer updated his story to use a iPad and blue tooth device. This I had to sleep on. I have used that combination in flight, and it works well. Were that theory falls down is were does he get his internet connection ? Certainly not from the gps. Without the internet there is noway to use a programme to track the fligh. As pointed out there is no way to identify a plane by TCAS alone. The waypoints mentioned are at extreme VHF range, so it's either HF radio or more likely ACARS, I.e the planes are in radio silence, making iding the FLT very difficult.

[FTJR]

"A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet

A pilot with 20 years of experience provides the best explanation yet on what happened to flight MH370.


There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless."

More here: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

While I personally wouldn't choose Langkawi, this is a very pluasable theory.

[FTJR]

Why wouldn't you use the autopilot to do that in-flight? Or do you mean the course change was programmed before the flight?

In an Emergency the first turn is manually. You reach up and turn the heading knob, to get you going in the right direction. You also need to change altitude (500' is enough) to avoid conflict with other planes. Then, if you time and not doing a checklist, you could think about programming the FMC to a destination.

[FLOOB]

Why would a gay pilot fly to the taliban in pakistan?

[Puma44]

Post 9/11, doesn't any of the flight attendants have access to a sat phone in case the cockpit is taken over?

No

[Puma44]

I would think it's normal to program alternate airports along the route in case of emergencies? I wonder who has analyzed the data and reached the conclusions; media, government officials or someone actually knowledgeable about these emergency procedures.

You would be wrong.  If there is an inflight emergency requiring a diversion, the pilots chose a suitable airport, coordinate it with company dispatch, and ATC.  Then the FMS is programmed for the desired airport.

[FTJR]

You would be wrong.  If there is an inflight emergency requiring a diversion, the pilots chose a suitable airport, coordinate it with company dispatch, and ATC.  Then the FMS is programmed for the desired airport.

Agree

[GScholz]

And if they didn't have comms?

From that article:

"Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses."

[Mace2004]

This theory is somewhat plausible, however; with an inflight fire (having had one myself) I would find it very unlikely that one of the pilots wouldn't have taken two seconds to key the mike and declare an emergency.  Also, emergency procedures for an active inflight fire is typically to land as soon as possible and Pulau Langkawi wasn't the "closest, safest airport." Kuala Terengganu was much closer, has an 11,000ft runway and has an approach over the water.  Kota Bahru was also much closer with a 7,000ft runway and an overwater approach. As a matter of fact, the airliner's entire route from where it turned to either of these airports was overwater so why fly an additional 200NM and cross the entire peninsula, an area in which they had absolutely no chance to ditch if necessary?

Also, the writer forgets that reports on the radar return show MH720 fly over Pulau Langkawi to Pulau Perak where it turned NW, not to the airport.

[FTJR]

I agree with you Mace, there a lot of airports closer, however most will be shut down for the night and I don't know whether they have pilot operated lights, Langkawi would be one of those fields likely closed. Penang is just south of Langkawi, it would be open.
Also why no keying of the mic? Someone would've heard it.