Something like this?
(Image removed from quote.)

what's the x-axis ( obviously time), months? If so, I'd say the op was the victim of a less likely, but entirely possible, occurrence. I've seen it a few times, myself, but it is rare. I actually had an incident tonight in which I fought off an apparent total noob raid on one of those bases with tiny dars ( I look for these type of situations, although I enjoy the fur balls, too) . On the menu was a trio of 26's accompanied by a poorly flown 38l. I passed over the 38 about 3k above, rolled my g-14 over and dove to saddle up. He died in the ack before I could get to him so I zoom climbed and chased the 26s, who were co-alt, headed the wrong way ( they'd dropped but were headed deeper into knight territory). I began to set up my attack, managing my speed so the they couldn't run away and using the excess energy to get above them. I got to within 3k on the high 6 and "poof": silk and end sortie. I figured my odds, given I wasn't carrying gondies or the 30, at about 50/50 of being able to kill those 26s. It's not like I was packing 4x20 or anything. But, guess somebody didn't want to man guns...