Author Topic: Weather Today and Yesterday  (Read 2957 times)

Offline Zimme83

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #60 on: May 01, 2015, 10:03:34 PM »
Same argument can be used against those hwo deny global warming etc. So I ask u the same question, Why do you trust any of them?
''The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge'' - Stephen Hawking

Offline Zimme83

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #61 on: May 01, 2015, 10:04:25 PM »
Scientific skepticism is a healthy thing.

Guess u say that to your doctor too...

Edit: Surveys shows that among scientist (those hwo do actual research) 95-98% agree in that human activity have a significant impact on climate change.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2015, 10:12:45 PM by Zimme83 »
''The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge'' - Stephen Hawking

Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #62 on: May 01, 2015, 10:51:27 PM »
Same argument can be used against those hwo deny global warming etc. So I ask u the same question, Why do you trust any of them?

I don't. Why would I?
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Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #63 on: May 01, 2015, 10:54:07 PM »
Guess u say that to your doctor too...

Edit: Surveys shows that among scientist (those hwo do actual research) 95-98% agree in that human activity have a significant impact on climate change.

Scientific skepticism is an important part of the scientific process. Scientists don't trust each other, nor should they. That's why there's a peer review process and every experiment must be repeatable by others. And even that has not been adequate to prevent scientific fraud at times.

And yes, I have asked doctors for a second opinion a couple of times. Haven't you?
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Offline Zimme83

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #64 on: May 02, 2015, 12:22:06 AM »
Scientific skepticism is an important part of the scientific process. Scientists don't trust each other, nor should they. That's why there's a peer review process and every experiment must be repeatable by others. And even that has not been adequate to prevent scientific fraud at times.

And yes, I have asked doctors for a second opinion a couple of times. Haven't you?

What u are doing is not asking for a second opinion. What u doing is telling the doctor that everything he learnt in med school i bogus.

If 97% of the scientist in a field say the same thing its pretty strong evidence. This is not 1, 2 or 10 guys saying it. its >95% of scientists worldwide. That is a lot of people and a lot of reports pointing in the same direction. Its enough to take it seriously. But u maybe questioning scientist that claims that earth is round too, because of "Scientific skepticism."
''The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge'' - Stephen Hawking

Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #65 on: May 02, 2015, 12:41:47 AM »
Who told you ">95% of scientists worldwide" and why do you believe it?

It is funny you bring up the spherical nature of our planet. Back when the Greek philosophers first proposed that the Earth was a sphere what do you think the "scientific consensus" was at the time? When Copernicus first suggested that the Earth was not the center of the universe and that the Earth orbited the Sun, what do you think the "scientific consensus" was?
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Offline Zimme83

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #66 on: May 02, 2015, 12:47:26 AM »
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf/1748-9326_8_2_024024.pdf  U can start there.
But i can admit that i read it wrong, its 97% of those expressing an opinion.


And  :rofl So u assume that every scientist are wrong because people 3000 years ago belived the earth was flat...
Btw it was mainly the church that resisted the thought that the earth was not in center of universe....

 

« Last Edit: May 02, 2015, 12:49:45 AM by Zimme83 »
''The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge'' - Stephen Hawking

Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #67 on: May 02, 2015, 01:09:21 AM »
I don't assume they are wrong, but they haven't proved that they are right. I don't assume anything, that's the whole point. Don't assume anything. Question everything. Those are the most fundamental mantras of science. That two or more scientists agree doesn't mean they are right. Only empirical evidence can prove them right.
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Offline kvuo75

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #68 on: May 02, 2015, 08:31:26 AM »
Scientific skepticism is a healthy thing.

I actually AM a skeptic. part of being a skeptic is letting your point of view change with the evidence.

all of the evidence points to global warming being a thing.

they HAVE proved they're right.

you are denying they have, i'm guessing, for political reasons.
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Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #69 on: May 02, 2015, 11:02:19 AM »
all of the evidence points to global warming being a thing.

Climate change is a thing, and there is a good deal of empirical evidence to support it. Anthropogenic climate change however has never been proven to my satisfaction. Climatologists have never been able to explain and demonstrate through repeatable experiments the mechanisms involved. There are data correlations that suggest anthropogenic climate change, but as any good scientist knows, correlation does not imply causation. If it did we must immediately stop funding NASA to prevent people from hanging themselves.

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Offline kvuo75

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #70 on: May 02, 2015, 03:41:29 PM »
Climate change is a thing, and there is a good deal of empirical evidence to support it. Anthropogenic climate change however has never been proven to my satisfaction.


your satisfaction is irrelevant. it has and continues to be proven. that you deny it is your personal problem with science.  i tend to trust the experts.

i will just ask anyone who denies the science, to ask themselves why they do. what is it going to take to convince you? can you be convinced? if not, you are no skeptic.


look, there's even a wikipedia article about it!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial


kvuo75

Kill the manned ack.

Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #71 on: May 02, 2015, 06:21:19 PM »
your satisfaction is irrelevant.

Irrelevant to you.


that you deny it is your personal problem with science.

I don't deny anything.


what is it going to take to convince you? can you be convinced?

Empirical evidence of anthropogenic climate change in accordance to the scientific method.


i tend to trust the experts.

Irrelevant to me. See how that works?
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Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #72 on: May 02, 2015, 06:29:01 PM »
What you don't get is that I'm not on either side of the argument. I'm on the fence. Both sides act more like it's a religious belief rather than rational scientific reasoning, and lash out against their detractors with vehement zeal. Filtering the hard science from the established belief systems has become increasingly difficult.
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Offline PR3D4TOR

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #73 on: May 02, 2015, 07:43:05 PM »
Correlation does not imply causation.



































« Last Edit: May 02, 2015, 07:51:24 PM by PR3D4TOR »
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Offline Chris79

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Re: Weather Today and Yesterday
« Reply #74 on: May 02, 2015, 08:20:47 PM »
First of all, I will not deny that the Earth could possibly be warming, nor will I deny that the Earth could possibly be cooling. In my experience some proponents of ACW approach it with religious fanaticism yet have little or no understanding of chemistry or physics relating to such ideals. Furthermore in my opinion Climatology is a borderline bogus science. I posted a condensed opinion a few days briefly explaneing the complexities of quantitatively proving the ACW theory, and yes it is just a theory. With this being said I will attempt to explain certain actual scientific aspects to ACW without delving into the political or financial intricacies pertaining to ACW.

Atmospheric Content.
1. N2, ~78% molar mass of ~28
2. O2, ~20.94% molar mass of ~32
3. Ar, ~.93% molar mass of ~36
4. H20 vapor, ~.4% molar mass of 18 "varies upon geographic location and altitude"
5. C02, .04, molar mass of 42. (Note that the molar mass of CO2 is significantly higher then that of other gasses excluding Argon. Furthermore, the atmosphere is not a solution, it is more of a colloid then anything.)
6. CH4, .00018% molar mass of 16.4

Now, N2, O2, and Ar are not green house gasses, where as H20, CO2 and CH4 are. Atmospheric green house gasses are an aggregate of roughly .44% of atmospheric content but they vary greatly in insulation properties and man is only responsible for variations of CO2 and CH4. There is however some correlation between an increase of C02 and a corresponding increase of atmospheric H20, but it really is like the chicken or the egg deal.
CP levels of Atmospheric Greenhouse gasses
1. H2O, 1.850
2. CO2, .709
3. CH4, 2.01

The higher the CP, the greater the insulator.

Now, if one took an example of the atmosphere at roughly 1000 feet, extracted the greenhouse gasses, and then compared the content both by percentage and its total effect on aggregate CP of the respective greenhouse gasses it would be as follows.
(Note, I fudged the percentage of H20 slightly downward in order to do a base 10 calculation)
1. H2O, 90.87%
2. CO2, 9.087%
3. CH4, .04089%
A quick glance shows that water vapor is by far the most prevalent atmospheric greenhouse gas. Now we will look at percent of CP.

1. H20, 96.265%
2. CO2, 3.831%
3. CH4, .0470%
Again, Water vapor.
Per the IPCC, humans have contributed roughly 18.18% of total carbon emissions. Although I find this organization to be dubious due to past scandals, I will use their information anyways.  By taking in account that humans contributed 18.18% of global CO2 emissions, and then recalculating the CP for that respective CO2 I conclude that human caused CO2 emissions are roughly .69% of total greenhouse gas CP. The only reason I even listed Methane CH4 is because someone earlier mentioned it. As you see it is insignificant.

As for climatology, as stated earlier, quantitative data pertaining to climate and weather in terms of temperatures have only existed for the past 110 or so years. Our current climate epoch is roughly 11700 years old which is directly related to the retreat of the glaciers following the Younger Dryas. Following the Younger Dryas the Earth has entered a period of fairly chaotic climatology  patterns. Although there is no empirical evidence to support this,for the last 1500 observation made mainly though clergy who for the most part were the only literate people for a long period of time supports this. For about the last 1500 years, there has been maximums and minimums, for instance there was a minimum that coincided with the fall of Rome. Afterwards there was a maximum around the time of the Viking expansion up toward the renaissance, then a long minimum ranging from 1550 to 1815 called the little ice age. Finally we are currently in the modern maximum. In between these long patterns there is some speculation that there are shorter 40 periods, one 20 year cooling trend and one 20 year warming trend. As for the cause of these climate patterns I have yet to be convinced on any one cause, although I am pretty certain its not HARP or Chemtrails. One thing I am certain of, is that there has been significant climate swings both on the cold and warm end of the spectrum long before the industrial age and the subsequent human population explosion.

My skepticism.
Certain organizations and scientists, have taken data collected pertaining to climate for only .94% of the current climate epoch, then conclude that human CO2 emissions will cause the Earth to warm to near catastrophic proportions, in which the man made portion of said emissions accounts for .69% of the insulating properties of .4418% percent of the atmosphere. It goes on, they will detract, degrade, slander, silence and in some cases threaten arrest for those whom disagree. If ACW theory is so absolutely sound and its proponents so ideological pure then it ought to stand well enough on its own. I have not even touched on the poor methodology in which they conduct their climate models, or the amount of wealth and power certain people and organizations have procured over this fiasco. Now I consider myself an educated man, other then threatening my standard of living and those of my fellow citizens I have no dog in the hunt. History have proven many things, humans fare better when its warmer, worse when its colder, and maybe in 5, 500, or 5000 years the ice will again relentlessly march south.




 




Chuikov