Far too linear.
Reason: German's win Frame one. Now what? There wouldn't be a Frame 2 if Germany wins. Or, maybe there would be? It would highly depend on what the map looks like after Operation Barbarossa, despite the German Victory. 
1st of all Historically, Luftwaffe won the "1st" frame - the initial step was total success destroying most of VVS. But it may be different in AH.
"Best" plane does not always win. See BoB - Hurricane was significantly less efficient than 109E so? Most of the work was done by Hurricanes.
Zero is much better than F4F, so? See what happened in Pacific War scenario?
Actually I-16 is quite close in terms of performance to Hurricane I. But has somewhat better ammo. Pilots who flew both I-16 and Hurricane preferred I-16, also Hurricane had better radio and was more comfortable. (I'll try to find the reference)
One of the reasons that VVS was wiped out in first days is that they were completely unprepared.
So I wouldn't be so sure of LW victory
Also I wouldn't connect frames strongly I'd go to something that was during Pacific War scenario.