Author Topic: Stock markets doom !  (Read 24448 times)

Offline CptTrips

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2015, 08:59:41 AM »
Hi Wabbit,
 nice to see you again ! :cheers: still shooting the night sky?

Howdy Ghi!

I've been so busy with work I haven't done any in a while.  I was just thinking the other day when things start cooling a little I'd like to get some more scope time again.

regards,
Wab
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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2015, 01:57:03 PM »
That last graph is CAPE I assume?

More fun facts...

Corporate profits are running about 11% of GDP right now, but historically they have always returned to the average of 5.5%.  You could claim that "this time is different" and that technology has made us more profitable but that would also have increased GDP proportionally.  That ratio to GDP is a pretty consistent measure across time. 

It will fluctuate but generally increase above the average in one time period are matched to lower than average  performance later.  For instance, if you were a CEO who wanted to maximize your short term compensation, you might try a manipulate near term profits by shedding trained workforce, forgoing capital and R&D investments,etc.  You might can leverage the profits higher for a while, but those tactics will reap lower earnings later.  But Heck, by then you may have already retired to one of your 6 houses in the Hamptons.  :t 

If those profits start reverting to their historical mean, the current valuations will start to look insane.  Maybe insane by half.

Wab

And this is what is happening, CEOs are more geared to the short term now more than ever. So in the short term, all of the companies are hiring labor as cheap as they can, while reaping all of the growth in the short term, but in the LR this will fail as a whole because just like a small business that is cutting everything to make better profits, they are forgetting that sometimes you have to raise value of employees and R&D and take a hit to make a healthy increase in growth over time. In the bigger picture, we need to take a hit by increasing the labor market income in this country or consumers just wont buy many things and our overall production will decrease/stagnate due to lack of demand. In the long run, at this rate, the people who make the foundation of this country in the working force, are being limited by a market salary that is incredibly damaging to the foundation of America. IMO, it will come back to bite everyone in the ass. 

Other countries have finally caught up with us in the industry market. If we keep giving too many cheap jobs away over seas and keeping our citizens low on the income scale, we will never be able to strive higher as a country. All of these charts are being manipulated with false growth and quick leveraged financing, instead of a strong backbone of the labor force who invest and the drivers (middle-low class workers) who are the production in the US. It will crumble from in the inside.

Too many people today are investing in companies that make no profit and the SHs are the backbone of the business, giving them support to keep operating. This is exactly how our nation is being ran and once things start declining again, the market crashes because there are no profits to support a indebted entity, once the SHs bug out, the company cannot compete and buy supplies it needs for projects and it slowly becomes weak from the inside. This is something I am very scared of in this country going into the future.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2015, 02:03:58 PM by DmonSlyr »
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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #47 on: September 01, 2015, 08:52:26 AM »
We are seeing first hand what a "Walmart economy" looks like across the globe. This is what happens when you have cheap goods with cheap labor. It ruins other countries Business models, growth, and structure. The majority of the people are poor as hell, they can no longer create growth inside the country. Now counties are fighting back against this model and that is why China is disrupting everyones market right now. IMO, it is a hit we needed to make to stop china from tanking the rest of the world's assets.
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #48 on: September 01, 2015, 10:22:38 AM »
However, reduction in price of goods as a result of productivity increase is a good thing for economies and for most of the people in those economies.  You end up with more goods for a given amount of labor and capital.

Offline SysError

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #49 on: September 01, 2015, 12:31:28 PM »
However, reduction in price of goods as a result of productivity increase is a good thing for economies and for most of the people in those economies.  You end up with more goods for a given amount of labor and capital.


IMO, you almost have it, but not quite.  Increases in productivity usually mean a reduction in prices in the long run, however, if wages are not adjusted to reflect a more productive work force – you end up with a workforce that cannot afford a given basket of goods even at the reduced prices.

Starting with WWII, industrial owners and unions had a pact; increases in productivity (increased output per man hour) would be shared.  In order to realize the benefits (profits) of a work pattern change from an increase in productivity, usually a reduction in work force is required.  (The obvious exception being when the productivity gains cause a shift in the production possibility curve with prices at equilibrium.) 

Unions often accepted productivity changes along with the reductions in work forces in exchange for a negotiated share of the realized improvements.  This pact stayed in place until about the late 1970s when some manufacturers decided to not share in the productivity gains but instead demanded reductions in work forces at stagnant wages.  Starting in the 1980s, this practice went into overdrive, in the 1990s it went on steroids and in early 2000s it became pornographic.

I can get into the China thing later  -- got to run.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2015, 12:33:06 PM by SysError »
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Offline RotBaron

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #50 on: September 01, 2015, 03:06:09 PM »
Syserror is a teamster?

I was with you in the beginning, sounds like you may have a business degree? I do.
They're casting their bait over there, see?

Offline Brooke

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #51 on: September 01, 2015, 05:53:55 PM »
Starting with WWII, industrial owners and unions had a pact;

Nobody had any pact.  On average, people act for what they see as their own benefit.

People working for their own benefit works fine -- on average, and over time -- if you have a free market and the rule of law.  There, transactions happen only when both parties are willing and perceive benefit, so all transactions are net benefit.

If you don't have that, on average and over time, you have problems.  In the case of government mandating transactions, both parties aren't always willing and don't always benefit, so not all transactions are net benefit.

I lived near Detroit for a large part of my life, and Detroit is steeped in unions.  I worked for GM for some years.  I've had a very thorough view of how Detroit/auto industry unions worked.  Even decades ago, that situation was clearly headed for ruin.

I'm not against all aspects of unions, by the way.  Unions are fine as long as the government doesn't grant them special rights unavailable except to unions.  In a free market, people should be free to organize as they see fit and to negotiate contracts as they see fit; and corporations should be free to propose deals as they see fit, to establish business where they see fit, and to fire people as they see fit -- as long as it doesn't violate any contracts (which is a critical caveat).  I'm in favor of rule of law by contracts.

I am against union cronyism, corporate cronyism, and government cronyism.  Cronyism exists because government can give out money and favors.  As you reduce the ability of government to run people's lives, take money from one person and gift it to another, and regulate everything, you reduce the motivation for cronyism, special interests, lobbying, and corruption.

Back onto the topic of wages, in a free market, everything is worked out in a giant feedback loop.  But it works only over time and on average.  If productivity increases, the reason prices go down is that one company feels that it then has the margin room to reduce prices a little and sell more product.  It then gets more of the market, but then other companies act to do the same.  In the end, you have more product being made at a lower price point.  The same dynamic happens -- on average and over time -- with respect to wages.  If a worker can be more productive, a company will hire him for a little bit more than a less productive worker.

Where you can have these dynamics ruined is when the government decides to control the economy, the market, and industries.  You get perverse incentives like have been happening in recent times.  Companies can make their stock more valuable not by increasing productivity or even selling product.  They can do financial engineering, such as borrowing at near-zero interest rates and buying back stock.  They can work out deals with the government for money that doesn't make economic sense and hence is a misallocation of labor and capital.  They can appeal to "gee whiz" ideas to boost stock value in a market overheated by injection of printed money.  They can create temporary wealth out of synthetic securities and financial games that will completely crash once the government stops printing money or a financial pyramid gets larger than is stable.

The problem of our day -- in my opinion -- is that the people of the world have not yet learned the lesson that centralized control of economies and straying from principles of free markets and rule of law is the wrong way to go.  People do not take even 5 hours out of their entire lives to read one simple book -- like Economics in One Lesson, by Hazlitt, or Basic Economics, by Sowell -- and thus are susceptible to egregious lies and falsehoods regarding economic policies.

Offline Rolex

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #52 on: September 01, 2015, 09:14:54 PM »
I've never heard of, or seen, a pact between unions and industrial owners.

I was around the hard-core industrial sector for quite a while as an engineer, engineering manager, factory GM and Division GM with 3 factories and almost 1,000 factory workers... mostly union members.

I was a guy who thirty years ago saw young, easily swayed shop stewards influenced by union HQ pukes flying in to force our factory workers into a work slowdown and strike. I remember telling a young, single mother working for us that she would be out on the street during a strike, but the union HQ guy would be collecting his salary as he flew back to New Jersey, first class.

I was trying to keep a plant in Chicago open, because foreigners were offering free land for construction, low-interest construction loans, no taxes for 10 years, paid training and wage assistance for the first year for the skilled workers we needed in the new, non-union location... the foreign land of North Carolina.

I was offering to keep it open with reachable production quotas with bonuses tied to production - the same level of production we had five years prior. The union wouldn't budge. They demanded a 10% across the board raise, regardless of competence or qualifications.

I had to lay off over 100 people with families because of union arrogance and greed. If you have never done that face-to-face, you never, ever want to. It is heartbreaking and gutwrenching.

The hell with unions today.

Today, I'm CEO of a high-tech company that's vertically integrated from hardware, firmware, wireless protocol, algorithms and software - all in house, and I've never seen much of this "CEO's are more geared to short term profits than never before..." stuff said here.

In the economy of today, all CEO's are competing for talented people to hire and retain. You can't survive without mature, competent engineers and programmers who have some specialization in the technology a company needs.

I need people who can program in C++, know graduate-level mathematics and more often than not now, need to have at least a Masters degree in engineering or the sciences.

I have to hire foreign talent because of this:

Number of Graduate EE Students
The University of Texas at Arlington: US Students - 16 | Foreign Students - 229
The University of Houston: US Students - 16 | Foreign Students - 180
Illinois Institute of Technology: US Students - 31 | Foreign Students - 400

The US students are learning "Ruby on Rails" or some other useless languge. The real world runs on C++ and some embedded languages. US students don't want to learn it these days because... it's hard.

Companies always act to retain good employees, but will not act to retain mediocre ones. There are too many red herrings and myths about how CEO's "act." We act in the best long-term and short-term interest of our companies, and companies are comprised of people.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2015, 09:17:35 PM by Rolex »

Offline BaldEagl

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #53 on: September 01, 2015, 11:54:43 PM »
I'm currently in the financial services industry and have, in the past, been a grunt union employee as well as a highly compensated executive of more than one publicly traded company.

The current market disruption is nothing to worry about long term.  It's news based fear centered around China (not the first time).  I view it as a buying opportunity.  US companies in particular have never been more profitable or had as much cash sitting on their balance sheets as they do today.  They are poised to leap forward once the economy in general shows signs of recovery, however, political turmoil in Washington has reduced confidence among both consumers and corporations that things will improve greatly any time soon.  That said, PE ratios are near historic highs.  That doesn't mean they can't be sustained, however to do so means companies must grow profits.  Thankfully the world population continues to grow and in doing so grows the demand for goods and services.

Lets compare the recent market decline to the Great Depression, the Great Recession, The 90's oil crisis, the 00's dot com bubble burst.  The first three had reasons for happening.  The dot com bubble was simply over exuberance in new technology and a bull market.  And lets not forget the 20% loss and daily volatility the markets saw in Q3 2011... based on nothing.  Regardless of the market calamity the markets rebounded and went ever higher.  Why?  A number of reasons but the driving force is always population growth.  Do you truly expect that to diminish any time soon?

The final point I'll make is that, yes, we now live in a global economy.  More and more we have to be concerned with what's happening in other parts of the world.  But we haven't yet reached 100% globalization and it will still take a long time to do so.  To ultimately get there living standards across the globe will have to normalize.  That means most Western nations will have to take a step backward for third world countries to improve.  Until that happens the richer countries will be at a disadvantage to third world countries in terms of labor costs unless governments impose restraints.  I don't expect this to come quickly or easily so at this point in time I'd be more concerned with my own government than that of a country on the other side of the world.

OK.  I'm going to make one more point.  The only people who should be worried by the current market turmoil are those who are retired and didn't enlist a professional to help them structure their retirement assets to weather a storm like (or much worse than) this.  On the other hand, if you're accumulating, stay the course and rejoice that you're buying cheap.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2015, 11:57:53 PM by BaldEagl »
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Offline zack1234

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #54 on: September 02, 2015, 12:26:31 AM »
 :rofl

Blah blah blah!

Lots of paragraphs here.

If the US is broke how can it be fighting wars?

If the US is broke how can it be fighting wars?

Your all being played

 :rofl


« Last Edit: September 02, 2015, 12:29:00 AM by zack1234 »
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Offline Brooke

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #55 on: September 02, 2015, 12:37:58 AM »
If you have never done that face-to-face, you never, ever want to. It is heartbreaking and gutwrenching.

Amen to that!

Offline ink

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #56 on: September 02, 2015, 12:39:03 AM »
:rofl

Blah blah blah!

Lots of paragraphs here.

If the US is broke how can it be fighting wars?

If the US is broke how can it be fighting wars?

Your all being played

 :rofl

not all. ;)

Offline zack1234

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #57 on: September 02, 2015, 01:22:28 AM »
Keep out of this or i will show everyone those photographs!

At your age :old:

Do you take vitamins?

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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #58 on: September 02, 2015, 08:39:21 AM »
The way I see it, and I'm 24, so I still have a young perspective, is that people my age give or take 10 years are taking out huge loans to enhance their "skills" in college while businesses are paying low dollar wages to these graduates because they don't respect the "skills" they've learned, where most of them still have to live with their parents or live with 2-3 other roommates, factor in transportation cost, insurance, and 350 student loan payment that they have to pay after 6 months of graduating and 30K is a Fing joke. College graduates are basically getting scammed. This is everyone's fault. College graduates will take low skilled jobs to pay back these loans while low skilled workers "with no degrees" will be stuck in Min Wage jobs are not have a job because college students are taking them.

 I have an extremely bad feeling that what we have created here are highly educated students who have to pay back loans with jobs that pay idiotic wages. So here's what's going to happen. People are not going to be buying new cars or morgage a house any time soon, the majority of my generation will be stuck in debt right when they graduate high school out of peer pressure to get a degree, they won't make enough money to do watermelon until they are 35, good luck if you have a child, and companies will keep devaluing skills for years to come, while the global market takes off and the American citizens are SOL because cheap labor will enter the market. 

So instead of increasing demand nationally by paying real living wages in order to increase supply and prices to raise profits and growth. We are increasing prices to raise profits while demand and supply remain stagnant or decrease. In the end the artificial price increases will only benefit the officers of the company in the short term, but they will eventually have to downsize and lay off people anyway due to not having the same demand but still artificially keeping profits the same. This intern downgrades the business because without productivity of the workers, they cannot keep producing the same supply while at the same time demand decreases.

So given that the stock markets depend on ever increasing P/Es, net profits, revs, and earnings, this is scary because like Walmart for example, blamed their decrease in net profits due to paying people better wages, the shareholders think they are losing value in the company, and large shareholders sell off not beating estimates. If every large corporation did this who pays low salaries, you'd see the market shrink across the board. However, in the long run it would benefit everyone because economically those better paid workers will provide more to spend in the economy while also being able to invest in the markets and save. If we keep artificially increasing growth while never giving back to the full time long hour workers who developed skills or have worked at a place for years, we will fail from the inside. It's starting to happen all over the world.

China is a great example of why making cheap products with big demand and large supply is the wrong way instead they need to increase demand with better wages to fundamentally increase the supply and growth in a healthy way.
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Offline Rolex

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Re: Stock markets doom !
« Reply #59 on: September 02, 2015, 09:21:56 AM »
Wages in China have risen substantially. I know, because I have over 100 people there. CE graduates salaries in Beijing are as high as Silicon Valley. Factory wages have soared also in the past few years.

You have to know the territory from ground level to know reality. Western reporting is staggeringly wrong or tainted on purpose about China.