Stock markets doom !

[CptTrips]

But, it closed at 16001.89.  So . . . time to BTFD? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

Lol.

[CptTrips]

This is helpful. 
Like him or not, Carl is no tin-foil-hatter.  His opinion has to be taken seriously by the street:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/30/carl-icahn-i-think-markets-are-overpriced-earnings-are-mistated.html

The market fighting hard to stay back up above 16k.  The real fun starts next week or so.  And I don't see anything but pain for the market until at least next summer.

Wab

[Brooke]

The full "Danger Ahead" video by Icahn is on his main page:

http://carlicahn.com/

[CptTrips]

The full "Danger Ahead" video by Icahn is on his main page:

http://carlicahn.com/

If I was made King tomorrow, I would interrupt cable and broadcast TV that same night and have this played back-to-back for 4 hours.

I talk to friends of mine that have absolutely no clue on whats coming.  Most Americans don't.

Wab

[Ripsnort]

I'm skeptical on coal.  We have too much natural gas.  Long term pressure is going to be against coal.
I'm skeptical on gold.  I think we are heading to another deflationary collapse.  Gold is a much better investment in an inflationary spiral.

Markets are very volatile right now.  It kinda reminds me of how airflow over a wing becomes turbulent after it exceeds its critical angle of attack.  The airflow becomes "nonlinear" and stops producing lift.  Then gravity  takes over.

Nothing but bad stuff ahead too.  Markets are going to get a lot of triggers.  Maybe one will trip off the big one.

Government shut down in Oct.
4th quarter fund tax sell-off (window-dressing)
Rate hike possible in Dec.
 
A big one nobody is talking about, in July all those Chinese major stockholders (>5% shares) were locked in and not allowed to sell.  They unlock in Dec.  What they do could end up being the Black Swan.

And then in 2016 we have the election.  I'm sure a President Sanders or Trump would sooth the markets.    That was an economic comment, not political.

I think if DJIA falls below 16000, that is the trip wire.  The trend will then become clear to all and begin a feedback loop.

Wab

I have several relatives in 3 generations that said something along the same lines as this post since the stock market inception. Those that listened with paranoia to what they said were SS dependent in their later years. The ones that invested, with long term in mind, are doing very, with SS being nothing more but beer money.

Personally, I'm a long term investor, have been since 1979. And as long as one stays diversified for their age and income level, over the long haul, the market has outperformed gold AND bonds.

So keep that tin foil hat on while us old guys use our SS for beer money.

[CptTrips]

I have several relatives in 3 generations that said something along the same lines as this post since the stock market

It depends on your time horizon.  It took S&P 15 years to get back to were it was on 2001. 

If you are less than 10 years or less from retirement, I would suggest a more defensive position now than you would in normal times.  These are not normal times in the stock market.

[zack1234]

Should our investment companies invest in China?

I am a Boeing employee who wants to prepare for my retirement.

[Ripsnort]

It depends on your time horizon.  It took S&P 15 years to get back to were it was on 2001. 

If you are less than 10 years or less from retirement, I would suggest a more defensive position now than you would in normal times.  These are not normal times in the stock market.

Absolutely agree.
I've been about 80% 'conservative' so these huge swings don't impact my portfolio more than 5% either way.

[Ripsnort]

Should our investment companies invest in China?

I am a Boeing employee who wants to prepare for my retirement.

IMO, yes, to stay competitive.
This article best answers your question:

This is also a story about Chinese public policy, and it highlights at least one respect in which the country's state-dominated economic growth model (whatever its other flaws) works better than freer markets — the country can coherently pursue multi-pronged efforts to develop new domestic industries by leveraging the scale of its domestic consumer market. The Chinese want to develop a domestic airplane manufacturing industry. But building large airplanes is difficult. So they've been playing Boeing and its major competitor off each other to get both companies to help teach a Chinese company how to do it. Lenin famously said that "the capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them," and while neither company really wants to help create a new rival, neither is willing to cede control over the Chinese market to the other.

In total, the planes Boeing has agreed to sell are worth about $38 billion — an enormous sum of money. That's spread across three separate airlines and an aircraft leasing company, but all three airlines are state-owned enterprises, and the leasing company is a subsidiary of a bank that's also state-owned.

The deal, in other words, is entirely controlled by the Chinese government, which, of course, wants a good deal on quality airplanes but also has a larger set of policy objectives.

In the United States, privately owned airlines choose to buy large aircraft from either Boeing or Airbus, Boeing's European rival, based on a relatively narrow set of business considerations. But while the Chinese government isn't indifferent to the quality of a plane purchasing deal qua deal, it also looks at other political factors.

In recent years the bulk of Chinese aircraft purchases have come from Airbus. Not coincidentally, Airbus has a production facility in Tianjin and is opening a second Chinese factory. Boeing is now opening its own Chinese factory in part to play catch-up — and the announcement is deliberately paired with the announcement of the new sales. The message from the Chinese government to both companies is clear: Your ability to make sales in China is going to be based in part on your willingness to locate factories in China.

Read the whole article here--> http://www.vox.com/2015/9/24/9389767/boeing-china-deal

[DmonSlyr]

I don't want to get political but Trump was right about what he said, we need "fair" trade not free market trade. China is selling everyone out. We cannot continue to barter with China because they are too cheap for us. They bring our economy down in more ways than any by providing cheap products and cheap labor that undercuts ours by miles. Investing is completely changing. As one guy described it, we are investing in companies now that don't even hold inventory, like google, FB, Uber, Ect, and its changing the market. The market is becoming a debt factory because people are investing in hyped up debt companies that get pumped to oblivion and then still don't make a profit. Most traders are stuck on short term gains currently and I think it's having a big impact on the volatility of the market. With the rest of the global issues facing our markets and the US being such a large barter country, it will have an impact once we stop China and South Asia from taking advantage of cheap labor and products. We have to get out of this phase if we want help grow America again in a healthy way and this will give people more to invest in our markets by having a prosperous socitey back in the US.

[zack1234]

Have you been living in a cave since 1976?

The US investment investment companies "Investing" in China is why everything is made over there.

South East Asia and China are being used by US investment companies to make money.

Free trade?

Fair?

 

If this is how the average colonial thinks we stuffed.

[Rolex]

I'm president of a small (just under 150 people) high-tech company. We're finishing up a round of financing this month for $XX million. All of it came from China. Zero came from the US because we actually have a product and US investors aren't interested in products now. They're investing in buzzwords and jargon.

I have an R&D facility in Beijing filled with PhD's who returned from the US, because there are no US students in US graduate schools. Brooke is an anomoly...

Stupid US CS students are studying Ruby on Rails and Java, when the real world of business runs on C++.

I think the only thing misunderstood more than the collision model is China.

[CptTrips]

Stupid US CS students are studying Ruby on Rails and Java, when the real world of business runs on C++.

Hmmm quite a bit of the business world runs on C#. 

I used to be a C++ snob, but after 12 years developing in C#, I'm not sure I'd want to go back. ;o)

Wab

[Ripsnort]

C# is what we  primarily use.

[Rolex]

Yes, C# too. Hey, it was 6:30 in the morning for this old geezer when I wrote it.