Another terrorist attack: US Soil

[Brooke]

O RLY?

Yes.

Probability and statistics is about looking at all of the outcomes to see how often they arise.

Thus, to find out the odds of rolling snake eyes vs. rolling a total of six on two dice, you don't take one example of a person who rolled snake eyes and conclude that the odds of rolling snake eyes is 100%.

Likewise, if you want to cite that you use statistics, you wouldn't be equally afraid of murder by Christian extremists as by Muslim extremists because the number of murders in the one case is likely significantly different than the number in the other case.  Your illustration of one example is nearly totally totally irrelevant, statistically speaking.

It would be like saying, "It's statistics," and then going on to say, "I'm equally afraid of dying in a car crash as an airplane crash."  Then I say, "I don't think you have your statistics correct on that one."  And you respond with, "O RLY" and post information about one plane crash, when in fact -- using statistics -- you see that one is vastly less likely to die in a plane crash than a car crash.

Now, if you know the basics of statistics and still used your argument, you should know that the technique of cherry picking one outcome to make a generalization about numerous outcomes is well known as being a lame and transparent debate tactic (even having its own name -- the "anecdotal fallacy").

[Brooke]

Brooke, the perpetrators of every bombing and/or murder at an abortion clinic have professed strong Christian "values".

Yes, and I, too, would count all of those on the one side.

On the other side, I would count the 1983 Embassy bombing (63 dead), 1983 Beirut barracks (307 dead), 1984 Embassy bombing (24 dead), Lockerbie airline bombing (178 Americans dead), World Trade Center bombing (6 dead), 9/11 (3000 dead), Ft. Hood (13 dead), and San Bernardino (14 dead).  I left out incidents that "only" had 10 or less dead, and I didn't much check on how many Americans were killed in the rest of the couple hundred Islamic terrorist attacks that have happened around the world since 1980.

Did Christian extremists kill 3600 abortion-clinic people since 1980?  How about 1/3 as much -- 1000?  How about 500?  How about 100?  What about 10?  It's 10 (if you include Robert Dear's recent 3 at Planned Parenthood).

Let's see how many deaths there were from Christian extremists in other areas.  Eric Rudolf murdered a person at the Olympics in addition to two others already counted in the previous paragraph.

I spent about 2-3 times as long looking around for examples of deaths from Christian extremist murders than I did Muslim extremist murders, and the above is what I came up with.  Maybe I missed something, but if not, here's our final tally.

Christian extremism: 11
Muslim extremism:  3600

So, if you are going to use statistics, which is more likely?  Is the difference significant?

If any of you want to double check my numbers or look into things in more detail, here are a few references to get you started:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Rudolph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-abortion_violence#United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_terrorism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Islamist_terrorist_attacks

[Hajo]

Well said Brooke........statistically speaking.

[Brooke]

On to other topics (if we can discuss them here).  Note, you and I are being completely respectful of each other in our discussions.

Christian lawmakers continuously attempted to violate the Constitution and outlaw gay marriage. We are all entitled to hold the moral values that our faith espouses, but they are PERSONAL values, and the Constitution  expressly states that " Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof ". Any law that is solely based on certain religions' opinions, values et cetera, which those laws were, violated other religions' rights to have different views. That is religious extremism, though not of a violent type. I would not want to have any one religion or denomination mandating my personal religious views, or mandating them on someone who espouses no religion at all. There are Hindus killing Muslims, Jews burning Arab boys to death, and believe me, any of those types of extremism can come here.

I'm not sure what gay marriage has to do with the statistics we were discussing.  The constitution doesn't mention marriage.  I don't think the government should be involved in marriage, and that if you get married, it shouldn't be the government giving you some certification of it.  Practically speaking, I believe the studies I've read that claim best outcome for children who grow up in a home with a female mother and a male father who are married.  However, I also think that it's good to do a lot of things that the government has no business forcing people to do.

I don't want to be forced to do things either.  That's why I'm a libertarian and believe that the best way to run things is to follow the Constitution literally, using the plain meaning of its writing.  Our government doesn't at all do that these days.

[NatCigg]

I know body count is big for some but the number of incidents within areas I am would be more accurate representation of threat to me.  Considering my loved ones use planned parenthood that would be a good start.

[Vulcan]

Yes, and I, too, would count all of those on the one side.

On the other side, I would count the 1983 Embassy bombing (63 dead), 1983 Beirut barracks (307 dead), 1984 Embassy bombing (24 dead), Lockerbie airline bombing (178 Americans dead), World Trade Center bombing (6 dead), 9/11 (3000 dead), Ft. Hood (13 dead), and San Bernardino (14 dead).  I left out incidents that "only" had 10 or less dead, and I didn't much check on how many Americans were killed in the rest of the couple hundred Islamic terrorist attacks that have happened around the world since 1980.

Did Christian extremists kill 3600 abortion-clinic people since 1980?  How about 1/3 as much -- 1000?  How about 500?  How about 100?  What about 10?  It's 10 (if you include Robert Dear's recent 3 at Planned Parenthood).

Let's see how many deaths there were from Christian extremists in other areas.  Eric Rudolf murdered a person at the Olympics in addition to two others already counted in the previous paragraph.

I spent about 2-3 times as long looking around for examples of deaths from Christian extremist murders than I did Muslim extremist murders, and the above is what I came up with.  Maybe I missed something, but if not, here's our final tally.

Christian extremism: 11
Muslim extremism:  3600

So, if you are going to use statistics, which is more likely?  Is the difference significant?

If any of you want to double check my numbers or look into things in more detail, here are a few references to get you started:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Rudolph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-abortion_violence#United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_terrorism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Islamist_terrorist_attacks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srebrenica_massacre - 8000 muslims killed by Christian extremists right there.

[NatCigg]

I'm sorry, you're right, I mixed you up with NatCigg. Which just solidifies my point, that NatCigg, you're telling ME not to pass judgement?!

Right, your still wrong, I've already explained my statement twice.  For you I will add I have not drawn any conclusions just a assumption from the extremely limited facts for a hypothetical argument.  I did not throw out personal inaccurate unfounded conclusions towards other community members just to further my far fetched social paradox.  Additionally, your quick and disturbing statement invites me to rightfully defend myself, and leaves you vulnerable, defending your own character.  Now if you have a personal attachment to this guy in California please tell him I'm sorry for assuming he's racist despite his courteous efforts.  But I did use the word assume because I'm no sure of my position and knew it would make AS out of U and ME. 

[PJ_Godzilla]

I think it like this.  They have their view.  It means a lot to them.  To go against it is a violation against what they believe and their place on earth is to preserve their way of life.  Just like us.  Zack is right.  As long as we are a threat to their culture there will be war.  But when the oils gone I bet they still mad. But I'm guessing. Maybe love wins in the end.  I sure hope so. 

I count 6 "theys", "thems", "theirs", "theys (sic) - they're" in there. Are you sure you want to be leveling speculation about someone else overgeneralizing?

As for the threat, I believe that a theocratic aristocracy in the Muslim faith perceives a threat from Western culture. Agreed there... Whether the issue can be resolved peacefully is, also as you note, open to speculation.

The real question in my mind is how widespread support for Jihad is across the broader span. Why? Because, if there's even a 10% take rate, you're talking about numbers that make the Soviet army look like a joke.

The other question in my mind concerns the historical parallel. How many Germans were party members? How many Southerners were committed to the cause? Sherman's calculus... Becuase, ultimately, to win, there is a certain count of implacable foe that must be defeated. The rest will follow.

[Brooke]

Yes, for any given person him or herself, these odds could be adjusted for your circumstances.

If you aren't specifically an employee of an abortion clinic, you're down to 4 deaths (the 3 at Planned Parenthood and one at Olympics) on the Christian-extremist side since 1980.

If you don't go outside the US, you are down to 3033 deaths on the Muslim extremist side.

Now, if you really want to apply statistics, you would find that the odds of getting injured or killed by extremists of any sort is vanishingly small compared to other risks in life.

Since 1980, here is approx. (rounded to 1 significant digit) how many people died of these other causes:
heart disease, 20M
cancer, 20M
chronic lower respiratory disease, 5M
accidents, 5M
stroke, 4M
alzheimer's, 3M
diabetes, 3M
flu and pneumonia, 2M
kidney infections and other kidney problems, 2M
suicide, 1M

So, you are 600 times more likely to die of the flu or pneumonia than to get killed in an attack by Muslim extremists.

You are 180,000 times more likely to die of the flu or pneumonia than to get killed in an attack by Christian extremists.

Getting a flu shot once per year from Walgreens (even factoring in the effectiveness of flu shots being less than 100%) reduces your life risk by orders of magnitude more than your risk from all Muslim and Christian extremist attacks put together.

Here's perhaps a better one. Since 1980, there have been about 1800 people hit by lightning in the US, 160 times more likely than getting killed by a Christian extremist.  Getting killed by a Muslim extremist is twice as likely as getting hit by lightning.

[Brooke]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srebrenica_massacre - 8000 muslims killed by Christian extremists right there.

This is another debate technique that is lame and a glaring tell of a weak hand -- the red herring.  Actually, it's two put together (since again you are bringing up one example and implying that it should hold true across all other examples, which is false).  So, red herring and anecdotal fallacies.

We were talking about the risk to an American.  If you want to introduce atrocities that are neither in the US nor involve US citizens, there are lots more on both sides that we can bring up, and it is a different discussion.  We can talk about all sorts of ethnic cleansing.  We can talk about Islamic conquests large portions of the globe while still including the Crusades and the Inquisition.  All of it is far afield from what we were discussing.

Here is a list of lots of logical fallacies.  I hope that you aren't planning to go through them one by one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

[NatCigg]

I count 6 "theys", "thems", "theirs", "theys (sic) - they're" in there. Are you sure you want to be leveling speculation about someone else overgeneralizing?

As for the threat, I believe that a theocratic aristocracy in the Muslim faith perceives a threat from Western culture. Agreed there... Whether the issue can be resolved peacefully is, also as you note, open to speculation.

The real question in my mind is how widespread support for Jihad is across the broader span. Why? Because, if there's even a 10% take rate, you're talking about numbers that make the Soviet army look like a joke.

The other question in my mind concerns the historical parallel. How many Germans were party members? How many Southerners were committed to the cause? Sherman's calculus... Becuase, ultimately, to win, there is a certain count of implacable foe that must be defeated. The rest will follow.

not much to worry other than the big dirty nasty fight.  I would guess most want stability over anything and therefore there is a peaceful end, especially if we give the people of the land a fair shake.

[NatCigg]

We were talking about the risk to an American. 

that why i say events not deaths.  total deaths are irrelevant, the risk is how many of these situations am i likely to encounter.  if i avoid crowds i might never see one type.  if i do not get birth control, physical exams, and counseling with a trusted and affordable physician i might not see one type. 

ps - lately for people like me , i found life is like watching a cops episode on tv, your always routing for the bad guy, and constantly disgusted by the good guys. 

[NatCigg]

  We can talk about all sorts of ethnic cleansing.

look up treblinka 

[PJ_Godzilla]

not much to worry other than the big dirty nasty fight.  I would guess most want stability over anything and therefore there is a peaceful end, especially if we give the people of the land a fair shake.

I genuinely would hope such a resolution could be reached. However, history is rife with both examples of people like those you cite being dragooned into an effort they pay for dearly and, in counterpart, foes who levy on them an assessment of collective guilt ( since separating them appears impossible or difficult, though there are moderate Muslim dis avowals of jihad) to burn out the perpetrators.

In short, your wish is wishful. A practical solution may require something akin to what Herr Goebbels might call "totaller krieg". It will come to that if and when these clowns do some damage that most deem unacceptable, since they're sleeping through the litany Brooke cites.

As for equivalence, not at this juncture by the numbers.

Though, I suppose you could trot out 1066, if were examining red herrings. The President certainly went there. I can think of nothing less relevant in today's situation.

[PJ_Godzilla]

look up treblinka 

And that applies to this issue how? It was a different government, nation, motive, philosophy, everything. Are we blaming dem evil nazzies on why natcigg sees justice in sticking it to Johnny US citizen ( your cops ref, confirming my earlier post -and just sub rosa, don't worry, these feelings aren't permanent, keep coming back and the resentments will fade as you start to realize that a lot of the good guys could just as easily be you )?