Carrying capacity of the Earth

[Brooke]

Yes, but would you LIKE to survive on food that will kill a chimp?

Sure!  I like Big Macs, pizza, spaghetti, tacos, chili, fish and chips, meat pies, sausages, potato chips, french fries, ice cream, milk, cheese, pickles, kimchi, sushi, thai food, pho, chocolate bars, bacon, and fried eggs just fine. 

But to be more serious about it, my feeling is that humans on average on the planet will not run into any malthusian wall or get even close to it.

I believe that birthrate everywhere -- including Africa -- will eventually decline to or below replacement rate, that it is just a matter of time until even Africa's standard of living increases enough to reduce birth rate.

[Zimme83]

[eagl]

David Attenborough did a very good one-off documentary about this. In his lifetime he said the human population had gone from a reasonably stable 2 billion to 6.4 and since he made that it's higher.

Denser populations make ideal vectors for epidemics. Cordyceps for humans anyone?:

I think something like this is the most likely next huge challenge for humans. 

As for carrying capacity, there's going to be multiple answers.  An un-augmented "natural" capacity (which we may have exceeded thousands of years ago), a level using basic Newtonian physics level engineering augmentation (basic agriculture, water reclamation, human-stacking in high rise apartments), and a capacity that requires technologies we are just now starting to dabble in.  Engineered chemical energy sources and storage.  Genetic modification to increase food output.  "Clean" energy sources that are so abundant they're effectively free after the infrastructure is built (space based solar is a first step).  Matter-energy conversion that makes water purification "free".  Engineered materials that permits rapid infrastructure growth while reducing maintenance requirements. 

With sufficiently advanced science applied to the problem, the carrying capacity becomes effectively space-constrained.  Moving food and energy production into space will let us utilize the entire earth's surface plus high-rises and sub-surface area for people.  At that point we may have figured out space travel to the point where we can either colonize other places, or strip other planets or solar systems of resources to feed our own.

Without basic agricultural engineering and materials sciences that give us metals petrochemicals glass and other composites, we're effectively at the carrying capacity of north America prior to the euro invasion, pre-1500s or so, and that's a very very low population density.

[eagl]

See Rule #14

[Brooke]

What is really stupid is using more than 1 gallon of gasoline of energy to produce 1 gallon of gasoline of energy in ethanol.

[pembquist]

What is really stupid is using more than 1 gallon of gasoline of energy to produce 1 gallon of gasoline of energy in ethanol.

Ahh, but you make it up in volume!

[ghi]

Corn is not really wasted in ethanol production, the process of fermentation turns starch/sugars only in alcohol. The byproduct still has proteins and fats contained in seed are used as animal chickens feed, anyway over 60% of corn production is used for animals feed turned into proteins for human consumption, meat, mil, eggs . Not a bright idea, i replaced my EGR cooler last week,bio is killing the engines, less energy /volume more soot and wearing.

https://youtu.be/XROVcSC7mds

https://youtu.be/D5uX_U3FiKA

[AKKuya]

Someone mentioned living underwater......I don't think so (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4779682/)!

That was me.  in case of that scenario, just splash the water with your hand and https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=HNwnTdx7&id=0A7723E6BFA2C3992BF12D1B03053CB72D6CD0E3&thid=OIP.HNwnTdx7ga1d4J7va_yg7QHaC4&mediaurl=http%3a%2f%2fibdp.huluim.com%2fshow_art%2f1838%3fsize%3d900x350&exph=350&expw=900&q=flipper+tv+show+pics&simid=608016016983788312&selectedIndex=13&qpvt=flipper+tv+show+pics&ajaxhist=0
will come to the rescue.

[Vraciu]

See Rule #14

[Vraciu]

Corn is not really wasted in ethanol production, the process of fermentation turns starch/sugars only in alcohol. The byproduct still has proteins and fats contained in seed are used as animal chickens feed, anyway over 60% of corn production is used for animals feed turned into proteins for human consumption, meat, mil, eggs . Not a bright idea, i replaced my EGR cooler last week,bio is killing the engines, less energy /volume more soot and wearing.

It should exceed 60%.  Supply and demand.  We’ve created an artificial demand through regulation that has spiked prices. 

[eagl]

Food prices have not magically increased for no reason.   It’s demand.

I think it's also transport, storage, distribution, and increased regulation.  Cheap fuel and energy lowers all those costs except for regulation.  Regulation is a double-edged sword...  Some of the regulations are dumb but others keep us from pretty much all getting sick every week eating food grown all over the planet.

The other day I ate an orange grown over 1500 miles away.  It cost me 50 cents.  Seems cheap to me, all things considered.

Also, consider that a great deal of food is somewhat price controlled in order to keep farmers from going out of business.  Yields are high enough in the US that if the farmers aren't subsidized either directly or by jacking up prices above a market supply/demand equilibrium level, we won't have very many farmers anymore.  Seems like a small price to pay, and I'd rather give my $$$ to the people who grow my food than pay more taxes and let the govt ensure our food supply.


Also related...  It's important to remember that gas/oil prices rise for three reasons.  First is not enough actual supply.  Second is artificial supply controls intended to maximize profit and level out seasonal production.  Third is demand.  Right now, gas and oil prices (ie. "energy" prices) are high due to demand.  That's a good thing because it means the economy is booming.  There will be a new equilibrium level where energy supplies start to hamper overall industrial and economic activity (not growth, but activity) and at that point we'll see some artificial supply constraints to prevent oil prices from plummeting rapidly enough to kill energy companies.  Then there will be a slow decrease in oil/gas prices until the next economic boom or REAL supply crisis moves the needle one way or another again.

[Vraciu]

I think it's also transport, storage, distribution, and increased regulation.  Cheap fuel and energy lowers all those costs except for regulation.  Regulation is a double-edged sword...  Some of the regulations are dumb but others keep us from pretty much all getting sick every week eating food grown all over the planet.

We are massively over-regulated in the wrong areas.   The only way you guarantee you won't get sick from food is to not eat.

The other day I ate an orange grown over 1500 miles away.  It cost me 50 cents.  Seems cheap to me, all things considered.

It used to cost about a quarter.

Feeding family of four for example...   My food costs have exploded from about $150 a month to that much every time we go to the store--four or five times a month.   That $0.50 is exponentially applied to everything.  Now it's not so cheap.    In Nigeria I could buy an entire bunch of bananas for about a buck, just like we used to do here.

Also, consider that a great deal of food is somewhat price controlled in order to keep farmers from going out of business.  Yields are high enough in the US that if the farmers aren't subsidized either directly or by jacking up prices above a market supply/demand equilibrium level, we won't have very many farmers anymore.  Seems like a small price to pay, and I'd rather give my $$$ to the people who grow my food than pay more taxes and let the govt ensure our food supply.

It's WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY more complicated than that.   Everything from multi-nationals, to fuel regulations, to NAFTA, to Mexico stealing water in violation of Treaty agreements factors in.

Also related...  It's important to remember that gas/oil prices rise for three reasons.  First is not enough actual supply.  Second is artificial supply controls intended to maximize profit and level out seasonal production.  Third is demand.  Right now, gas and oil prices (ie. "energy" prices) are high due to demand.  That's a good thing because it means the economy is booming.  There will be a new equilibrium level where energy supplies start to hamper overall industrial and economic activity (not growth, but activity) and at that point we'll see some artificial supply constraints to prevent oil prices from plummeting rapidly enough to kill energy companies.  Then there will be a slow decrease in oil/gas prices until the next economic boom or REAL supply crisis moves the needle one way or another again.

No, fuel prices spiked in PART due to demand back in 2008ish, going from $1 a gallon to $4 a gallon.  When demand crashed fuel prices never went back to $1.   We became conditioned to think that $2.50 is cheap and the industry never looked back.

Regulations impose HUGE costs on energy production.   It's a shell game and ultimately intended to take away freedom by those who think they know best.

   

[zack1234]

If the Saudis are looking at investing in other markets highlights oil will not be the cash cow it was.

The main flash point in the Middle East will be access to fresh water

The nasty Russians will be supplying Europe with its carbon based fuel, and the US will be forcing the greedy Germans to pay properly into NATO to defend themselves from the said nasty Russians.

Germany has signed a billion gas deal with Russia

[BOBO]

If the Saudis are looking at investing in other markets highlights oil will not be the cash cow it was.

The main flash point in the Middle East will be access to fresh water

The nasty Russians will be supplying Europe with its carbon based fuel, and the US will be forcing the greedy Germans to pay properly into NATO to defend themselves from the said nasty Russians.

Germany has signed a billion gas deal with Russia

I think that the simple fact that the Saudis have never bothered to even attempt to add any value to the only raw material they've ever exported disqualifies oil from being a "cash cow" for them.  I think "spare change calf" is a more descriptive term.

[nrshida]

With sufficiently advanced science applied to the problem, the carrying capacity becomes effectively space-constrained.

Just one small observation that most animal populations are upper-limitted to the food supply. With Homo Sapiens it is abstracted by one layer to energy supply because they are inherently tool-users. The population expansion is directly related to the use of first coal and now oil. Both of those were deposited over VERY long periods and modern humans use them up at a very rapid rate. That's why sustainable energy will find the balance for modern humans. Right now it's probably a bit artificially high.


Note to self: count how many AH forum users are triggered by the word sustainable